ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Poor Cameron and Holly Beach are going to get smacked and drowned

A Hurricanetrack storm chaser is on the way to Holly Beach. I have a link up with his live feed and Lake Charles Radar.

http://tropicwatch.info/lakecharlesradar.html

[supercane4867]

Eye is becoming clearer and clearer by each frame.

[PTPatrick]

there really isnt a great analog to a cat 4 moving from this angle into the Sabine pass area. Every storm is unique. Audrey hit there but from the south. The set up for Rita was more optimal for surge for the area and that surge was higher than Audrey, by a good bit...I think around 15 ft in Cameron parish. This could be higher than rita based on higher landfall strength in the immediate zone to the east of landfall, including Lake Charles if it gets on the East side...but we know RIta had been a cat 5 and was VERY large. I expect the surge will taper a little quicker down the coast than Ritas did though. She pushed a large surge across most of the Louisiana Coast. So you could have a situation were for instance, Lake Charles comes off worse, and places like Intracoastal City dont quite get what they got with Rita BUT even that isnt a given.

[supercane4867]

Impressive drop in the NE eyewall.

[Ian2401]

anyone got any live cams?

[aspen]

Impressive drop in the NE eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/245Fcqf.png

Cat 4 upgrade soon?

[artist]

 https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1298643584724287490

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1298641639523532800

Wow 114kts. Yes that would definately justify an upgrade to cat-4. Probably coming sooner rather than later!

Perhaps even more worrying is the 130kts that is literally just above the surface, those sorts of winds will gust at the surface and still time for it to drag those down to the surface...scary stuff!

[wx98]

Data from the NOAA pass through the NE eyewall supports 125-130. It may be a Cat 4 now. Another AF plane is on the way from South Carolina now.

[Highteeld]

Pressure down to 950 mb. This is hurricane michael all over again

[Shell Mound]

Eye is becoming clearer and clearer by each frame.

https://i.imgur.com/wfD5EY5.gif

At this point a very high-end Cat-4 or low-end Cat-5 system is becoming extremely feasible, both before and during landfall.

Currently, I’m thinking Laura will peak at 135–145 knots with an estimated MSLP on the order of 920 to 925 mb. Historic.

[wkwally]

Is this turning now or is still on a beeline to Houston? Nervous about that turn

With you on that. If it does not make that turn before long we could be in for a rough night here in H-Town.

[AtascocitaWX]

Is this turning now or is still on a beeline to Houston? Nervous about that turn

Beeline to Houston?

[storminabox]

Eye is becoming clearer and clearer by each frame.

https://i.imgur.com/wfD5EY5.gif

At this point a very high-end Cat-4 or low-end Cat-5 system is becoming extremely feasible, both before and during landfall.

Currently, I’m thinking Laura will peak at 135–145 knots with an estimated MSLP on the order of 920 to 925 mb. Historic.

Absolutely frightening system. The 2020 hurricane season is unfortunately living up to its destructive expectations. I'm praying for all those who will be impacted by this beast which will unfortunately be striking tonight.

[tolakram]

Is this turning now or is still on a beeline to Houston? Nervous about that turn

Beeline to Houston?

Look at the NHC forecast. There's nothing to indicate this will not turn, and the question of is it going to Houston is unaswerable until it doesn't happen. Odds are strongly against it going straight to Houston as all reliable models show it slowly bending north.

[KWT]

Eye is becoming clearer and clearer by each frame.

https://i.imgur.com/wfD5EY5.gif

At this point a very high-end Cat-4 or low-end Cat-5 system is becoming extremely feasible, both before and during landfall.

Currently, I’m thinking Laura will peak at 135–145 knots with an estimated MSLP on the order of 920 to 925 mb. Historic.

Yeah I suspect its heading down towards the 920s based on current speed of pressure drops, really has been quite impressive with it averaging around 3mbs an hour. Even if that slows, your probably getting into the 920-935 range.

Based on the eye dropsonde, pressure likely 950mbs.

[Stangfriik]

What's the website that had all the chasers locations where you can click on each to watch their streams ?

Nvm found it https://builder.zoomradar.net/zoomradar ... 94AyuzcYHF

[Beef Stew]

Given the most recent recon data, I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory soon with an upgrade to 115 kts. That being said, they may be waiting on a bit more data.

[wkwally]

Is this turning now or is still on a beeline to Houston? Nervous about that turn

Beeline to Houston?

Look at the NHC forecast. There's nothing to indicate this will not turn, and the question of is it going to Houston is unaswerable until it doesn't happen. Odds are strongly against it going straight to Houston as all reliable models show it slowly bending north.

I pray the the NHC is right on this as Houston did not evecuate like other areas and a cat 4 hurricane will become a real life taker if it hits here.

[catskillfire51]

If you want to try and track yourself, go to windy.com and look at the satellite view, mark a waypoint in the middle of the eye and just let it go. This point was put about an hour and 30 min ago. Helps to have a visual to reference.