ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[StarmanHDB]

Looks like a big WNW turn into Palm Beach County?

[jlauderdal]

ridge maintaing enough it looks like for still a landfall or within 20 to 50 miles of florida

And with the wind field expanding Aric that could be enough to wreck havoc along entire east coast of FL.

shutters, evacuations, damage, storm surge..this is a major hurricane in the heart of the season for florida...all hands on deck from miami north starting tomorrow..dont see any other way..to much ridging in place and absolutely no sign of help, its not a matter of timing anymore, its a matter of when the system gets real close or comes ashore

[tolakram]

[Lifeless]

72hrs gets real close

[Alyono]

Cannot see it missing land this run. Moving too quickly

[SunnyThoughts]

Curious to see the pressure on the high res for 72hr. 934 eek

[tolakram]

Close!

[toad strangler]

Central FL coast getting raked @ 72 hours on the 00z GFS

[HurricaneFrances04]

At 78 hours, it's 6 hours quicker and maybe a little weaker than the 18Z...otherwise track is nearly the same.

[MWatkins]

Lets see if the next panel turns northward.

It looks like there is too much ridging in the model to stave off a Florida landfall.

I hope not, but I think so.

MW

[tgenius]

The other thing to consider is based on timing the storm would be coming ashore during the mid afternoon early afternoon timeframe versus a night time hit. Of course if he speeds up that could change things too.

[jhpigott]

Looks like the 0z GFS held serve as to Fl. Very similar path, maybe a touch quicker than 18z

[SFLcane]

If this comes to pass you bet south Florida will be under hurricane warnings

[tolakram]

934mb

[northjaxpro]

ridge maintaing enough it looks like for still a landfall or within 20 to 50 miles of florida

And with the wind field expanding Aric that could be enough to wreck havoc along entire east coast of FL.

It would be terribly bad to see the eyewall of a major hurricane come that close(within 50 miles) to the coastline.

[tolakram]

Miss

[Lifeless]

78 Hours is REALLY CLOSE

[HurricaneFrances04]

Now coming in further west...because of the quicker motion.

[ronyan]

I suppose it should impact the Carolinas after paralleling the coast of FL due to quicker movement.

[tolakram]