ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JPmia]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

just east of these islands is a trench.. pretty deep there actually where as most of the Bahamian chain is shallower.

[NDG]

I also noticed that on the mid levels picture that I posted the shortwave now over Missouri has been coming in slower than what the GFS has been forecasting on its short range.

[Canelaw99]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

Here in Dade, we’ve been out since yesterday. Everyone has stopped preparations. No lines for gas or at Publix yesterday. Everyone enjoying their weekend because it’s all clear. Local news even saying if your shutters aren’t up, don’t worry. We, as storm enthusiasts, know to not pay attention to the cone directly and always watch the storm until it passes us. Most lay people don’t. They go by what they’re being told, and right now they’re told we’re in the clear. There isn’t even a TS watch for Miami Dade at the moment. Schools aren’t closed Tuesday.

[johngaltfla]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I'm not going to say it will, but odds are increasing of a WSW motion which changes everything.

I still stand by my earlier statements that the size and strength of this storm will allow it to create its own surrounding environment and possibly move this storm much further west than forecast.

[CronkPSU]

Where, and how, do the residents of the Bahamas in the path of Dorian go to protect themselves?

north and west....Polk County and Gulf Coast

not like they can hop in a car and drive there

geez my bad...I thought you meant Florida's east coast...sorry!!!

[supercane4867]

I could've never imagined a 155-160kt storm spinning off the east coast of Florida. This is insane

[Kat5]

I also noticed that on the mid levels picture that I posted the shortwave now over Missouri has been coming in slower than what the GFS has been forecasting on its short range.

Sure looks like it is on WV, any idea if Gonzo is flying around today?

[cheezyWXguy]

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/1200 UTC, is near 26.5N
76.5W. This position is about 35 nm/ to the east of Great Abaco
Island in the Bahamas, and about 225 nm to the east of West Palm
Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 275 degrees, 8 knots.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 knots with gusts to 170
knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane.

160 knots sustained?

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/hurrica ... ussion.txt

Thats a typo, based off of a previous advisory (note the higher central pressure of 927mb; current pressure is around 920). Thats supposed to be 160mph

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019090112, 03, OFCL, 3, 265N, 768W, 155, 919, HU,
155kts

[1900hurricane]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

Actually the waters east of Great Abaco is not all that shallow. I believe they are >1000ft deep

Thanks, I knew there was a steep drop off somewhere, but I wasn't sure where it was. Hopefully the NHC gets good dropsonde data to help resolve the SFMR issue because it is rearing its head like never before right now.

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168090883889278976

Amazingly enough, this could be the story that isn't heeded until it's too late.

Starting to feel pretty damn worried here in Orlando

Keep preparing and implement your plan now if you have not already. Stay calm and execute. It's exciting to see the beauty and power of this beast but realize that there are people in its path who will lose everything, maybe even their lives. So respect Mother Nature and you will be fine.

[KWT]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

https://i.imgur.com/6SZtLQy.gif

yeah that does not include what G4 found.. 592 ridging NW of DOrian as well east of JAX and Saint Augustine.

looks like a whole lof of ridge pumping.

Yeah, amazing how so many models have missed this, but that's possibly partly due to the lack of data going in during those 36hrs where we had no sampling.

Given the ridging and the fact it's going to getting hotter soon inland over the us may keep it trucking west enough to bring the worst conditions close to the east coast if not over.

[boca]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

Here in Dade, we’ve been out since yesterday. Everyone has stopped preparations. No lines for gas or at Publix yesterday. Everyone enjoying their weekend because it’s all clear. Local news even saying if your shutters aren’t up, don’t worry. We, as storm enthusiasts, know to not pay attention to the cone directly and always watch the storm until it passes us. Most lay people don’t. They go by what they’re being told, and right now they’re told we’re in the clear. There isn’t even a TS watch for Miami Dade at the moment. Schools aren’t closed Tuesday.

That might change after the 11am update

[norva13x]

Amazingly enough, this could be the story that isn't heeded until it's too late.

Starting to feel pretty damn worried here in Orlando

Keep preparing and implement your plan now if you have not already. Stay calm and execute. It's exciting to see the beauty and power of this beast but realize that there are people in its path who will lose everything, maybe even their lives. So respect Mother Nature and you will be fine.

I've been ready, was just hoping the trends east would stick. If it comes over me I'm as prepared as I can be.

[toad strangler]

St Lucie and Martin County schools closed until further notice. Palm Beach County schools closed Tuesday.

[northjaxpro]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

https://i.imgur.com/6SZtLQy.gif

As of right now, not only is the Ridge holding strong, but the axis goes to the Southeast Gulf. Terrible news for Florida East Coast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AL, 05, 2019090112, 03, OFCL, 3, 265N, 768W, 155, 919, HU,
155kts

That's 180mph folks...

[WeatherEmperor]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

Actually the waters east of Great Abaco is not all that shallow. I believe they are >1000ft deep

Thanks, I knew there was a steep drop off somewhere, but I wasn't sure where it was. Hopefully the NHC gets good dropsonde data to help resolve the SFMR issue because it is rearing its head like never before right now.

I hope its okay to go slightly off topic...but if SFMR is so suspect why do they continue to use it? Why not just exclusively use dropsondes until further notice?

[tolakram]

Here's SLIDER with the tracking feature on. This is a manual track created by me, so not 100% accurate.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=60&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=1&follow_x%5B0%5D=7170&follow_x%5B59%5D=6904&follow_y%5B0%5D=5646&follow_y%5B59%5D=5604&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=6533&y=5750

[KWT]

AL, 05, 2019090112, 03, OFCL, 3, 265N, 768W, 155, 919, HU,
155kts

Still strengthening, upto 155kts now and that pressure still dropping several mbs at a time.

Outrageous hurricane.