Pacific Northwest Weather

andycottle · #5641 Postby **andycottle** » Sun May 22, 2005 9:01 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:Yet another downpour in Covington today! We got a tenth of an inch in 5 minutes. What a week!

The GFS is really backing off on the warm weather later this week, while hte ECMWF does show a fairly solid warm period. My guess is that it will at least partially fall through. The GFS already shows another short wave, with strong onshore flow, by day 5. The ECMWF shows what could easily be a heat thunderstorm event in the 8 - 10 day period. We will just have to wait and see on this.

The longer range shows a continuation of the pattern that has dominated this month. That being a series of sharp troughs digging into the NW and a mean trough over the NE with a ridge in between.

Oooooh....sounds link interesting weather. Sunny warm mornings, followed by awsome afternoon thunder storms, That would be cool. But seeing how that is in the long range...anything can happen! -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #5642 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun May 22, 2005 11:19 pm

Absolutely amazing! This is now the 5th wettest May ever recorded for Sea-Tac with nearly a third of the month still to go. The only ones to beat the 3.22 inches that Sea-Tac has now wracked up are 1948, 1977, 1984, and 2000. Once again today, the daily rainfall record was from a year that led to a cold winter...1984. This may be a coincidence, but it is sure weird! What are the chances that nearly every daily rainfall record in the past 10 days was from a year that led to a really cold winter? We have had two daily records in that period! :eek:

Like I say, coincidence or not, I am seeing many more of them in favor a cold winter than in favor of a warm one.

snow_wizzard · #5643 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sun May 22, 2005 11:31 pm

Wow! Another total meltdown of the models. The new GFS show plunging thicknesses, strong onshore flow, and low 850mb temps by the end of week. If it is correct Friday could struggle to reach 60. So much for the big warm spell. Right now it looks like a two day wonder. To alter a phrase from the NWS. :lol:

TT-SEA · #5644 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sun May 22, 2005 11:55 pm

The GFS is trying to resolve the jet stream energy coming across the Pacific (particularly next weekend and beyond). It has been interesting to watch each run try to get a handle on the situation.

It has trended cooler for next weekend. But the following week looks dramatically different. And much more reasonable.

Instead of an unusually strong jet stream slamming into the West Coast and eventually forming a huge upper low over California... the 00Z run has COMPLETELY shifted gears and greatly weakens the jet stream.

The result is high pressure off the coast of California by the first of June and weak (mainly dry) zonal flow over Washington.

The entire run has very little precipitation for the Seattle area through the end of the month. I do not think we will see much more significant rain this month.

snow_wizzard · #5645 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 12:38 am

TT...you could be right about not seeing a whole lot more rain this month. Just a little bit will go long way toward making this second or third wettest May on record for Sea-Tac though. I still get the feeling that overall wet pattern is not done with us though. I can easily imagine a wet June in our future.

As for the below normal temperature part of things...I kind of forgot about the temps this week because of all the excitiment, and just discovered that 5 of the past 6 days have been below normal!

Right now the temperature is sitting at an unseasonably cool 48 at my place (unseasonable when you consider it is only 10:30pm).

snow_wizzard · #5646 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 2:16 am

44 degrees at 12:00am! Man that is cold for this time of year. We have 850mb temps of -1 with clear skies. Not too bad!

TT-SEA · #5647 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 8:01 am

The warmth is coming!!

Should be an awesome week.

And we will end up above normal for May. But what else do you expect??

snow_wizzard · #5648 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 10:52 am

I ended up with a low of 38 this morning! One of only a few times I have recorded that cold of a low temp, this late in the season. If this month ends up above normal, that's fine. 1968 was above normal in May (stated only as an example).

Many parts of the coutry are having a cold May (like 68). If this was global warming that would not be the case. I still say, before this year is over we will have long periods of below normal temps, and low monthly averages!

weather girl · #5649 Postby **weather girl** » Mon May 23, 2005 10:53 am

Over 4 inches of rain in Salem this month making it the third rainiest in the last 40 years. Out of the last 60 days, only 6 have not been rainy. Last year at this time we had already had 4 80 degree days. Looks like we'll hit one or two this week.

I'm going to stick with 77 or 81 right now as analogs....leaning more towards 77. I really hope I'm wrong.

Agree that I think last year was more like 68....except El Nino built in late and spoiled what could have been a wild winter. Will need to watch August to be sure.

38 at my house on Saturday morning. 40 this morning. Much colder than I expected.

Enjoy the week sun lovers!

TT-SEA · #5650 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 11:24 am

Despite a cool morning... May will end up above normal.

That will be 4 out 5 months this year.

snow_wizzard · #5651 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 12:07 pm

TT...You are just making my case for me about 1968. It too was very warm the first half of the year! All I can say is this is the most excited I have been about the weather this time of year for a VERY long time. I love what I am seeing!

I am going to go out on a limb and say we will have an 80 degree day this week, but it will be a very short lived warm spell. The analogs have been coming up with early June 1955 quite consistently and that was when we had a freak heat flash. It went from well below normal to 100 degrees in Seattle in just a few days. After that it was over and the temps returned to below normal values. The GFS is strongly hinting at a very cool and wet period for the first of week of June now. Cold and wet June followed by a hot (or at least warm) July would be perfect! I am telling you guys I am certain about it turning cold later this year. CERTAIN!

TT-SEA · #5652 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 12:18 pm

I just do not see a very wet or cold period. Based on model trends I think it will above normal for a couple days and then near normal during the first week of June. Weak zonal flow produces normal weather in Seattle in June. Why?? Because weak zonal flow is normal in June. Strong ridges or deep troughs are NOT normal.

A little rain at times... but nothing major at all.

The GFS will back down on the trough for the first weekend in June. It has backed WAY down on the jet stream and trough it originally predicted.

It actually looks very quiet and bland. Maybe 80 degrees by Thursday... but that is due to happen at least once in May.

snow_wizzard · #5653 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 1:05 pm

I don't know...I think we should be looking at persistnce in the overall pattern until there is some really strong indication of a change. Keep in mind, this IS NOT a normal year. We cannot assume it will magically return to normal any time soon.

TT-SEA · #5654 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 1:36 pm

We will see.

The first part of June looks pretty normal.

Everything is in balance now.

Snowluver · #5655 Postby **Snowluver** » Mon May 23, 2005 4:25 pm

Hi...You guys have been getting pmmled with Heavy Rain..Here in omaha boy..we have missed all the severe weather

TT-SEA · #5656 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 4:54 pm

Your definition of severe weather and our definition here in the Pacific Northwest are very different.

Anything with thunder is considered "severe" and "wild" out here.

Last week a tornado that was 30 feet wide and a 1/10th of a mile long made the top of the local news. It actually damaged a carport!!

We have had rain... but still less than your normal for the month of May.

The rest of the month looks pretty dry and quiet.

AnthonyC · #5657 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon May 23, 2005 4:58 pm

An awesome afternoon...first time in two weeks. Currently 64F with mostly sunny conditions.

As for the rest of the week, expect warm and sunny...just the way I like it! Maximum temperatures should peak on Thursday as a weak thermal trough pusses inland and east of the cascades...some places will surpass the 80-degree mark...I'll make a few predictions: Olympia-84F, Tacoma-82F, Seattle-79F, Everett-78F, Bellingham-76F. Those are awesome temperatures...the warmest of the season!

Next weekend is up in the air...but I have to agree with TT-SEA, I think the GFS is overdoing the marine push/trough. It's almost June...the jet stream is shutting down and upper-air patterns are very weak.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #5658 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 23, 2005 5:22 pm

Snowluver...

In fact you have seen more rain than we have this month.

A total so far in Omaha of 4.17 inches and in Seattle just 3.22 inches.

Again... the drama you read on this thread needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Your climate is much more extreme and dramatic. Even in what you think is a quiet month!!

W13 · #5659 Postby **W13** » Mon May 23, 2005 5:22 pm

It is currently 64*F with 41% Humidty and a 40*F Dew Point. We had a chilly low of 38*F earlier this morning.

Not too bad of a day. Later this week looks awesome!

snow_wizzard · #5660 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 23, 2005 5:36 pm

I must admit that is an interesting point TT. I would have never thought of Omaha as being wet any time of the year. You still cannot ignore the fact this is, right now, our 5th wettest May since 1941. That is spectacular from a climatological point of view! Also...areas away from Seattle have had over 4 inches.

Hmmm...My Weather Almanac says the normal for Omaha is only 3.91 inches for May. He may have meant that their rain has just been the gently uneventful stuff. :eek:

See...the 4+ inches that some places near Seattle have had in combination with thunderstorms is not so boring after all! What's wrong with getting excited about our weather anyway. It would really be a bummer to never get excited about anything!

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