CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherman0518]

Some things i wanna point out in the 5am discussion.... this is not to alarm anyone but to notify so read the whole report its very interesting....


000
WTNT44 KNHC 170853
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[USTropics]

This is an awesome link with a wv enhanced loop. It may take a minute or two to load, but well worth it.

[weatherman0518]

thank you UStropics!

[EyELeSs1]

NE quad really slamming Martinique right now. Looks like its more intense now than a few hrs ago

[caribepr]

Absolutely worth the wait...wish I had a bigger screen! Thank you!

[Aquawind]

TBW Discussion is pretty well said..

SYNOPTICALLY...GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AND TROPICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TRACKING DEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THEN A FEW DIFFERENCES
APPEAR...MAINLY DUE TO HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE CUTOFF COOL-CORE
LOW...NOW RETROGRADING TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BUT EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO HEAD ALL THE WAY TO TEXAS BY TUESDAY...HAS ON TRYING
TO DRAW THE CYCLONE A BIT FARTHER NORTH.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF...WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. WHILE THESE AREAS LIKELY
DEAL WITH YET ANOTHER SIGNFICANT RAIN EVENT IN A YEAR FULL OF
THEM...THE FLORIDA SUNCOAST WILL ONLY FEEL THE HEAT FROM A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL EITHER PIN THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST OR
NOT ALL IT TO SET UP AT ALL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Interestingly enough ... no landfall yet.

[ExBailbonds]

06z GFS started. Here is a link to the loop. Just hit refresh every couple of mins or so and it will add the new frames as they are available.

500 mb http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[EyELeSs1]

eyewall over land now

[HURAKAN]

Last night:


Now:


Looking better organized.

[Normandy]

Its radar presentation looks awful for a Cat 2, but perhaps tis due to radar quality.

[Thunder44]

If it were a TS or cat 1 it would look really impressive but for a Cat 2 hurricane, it doesn't. The NHC seems to think the same as from their 5pm discussion:

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

[EyELeSs1]

yea...radar looks poor but i think it's due primarily to the radar itself. Also pressure has started to rise slightly here yet the storm hasn't made it's closest approach to Antigua yet. Maybe it's pressure has risen from 976mb now.

[HURAKAN]

Its radar presentation looks awful for a Cat 2, but perhaps tis due to radar quality.

I think the quality of the radar is the problem.

[EyELeSs1]

still blasting Martinique



Pls send us some rain!!

[Normandy]

Hurakan,
Yes, structure wise I would say it looks better organized than last night....Thankfully for the islands it didnt start RI like I thought it might this time yesterday.

[EyELeSs1]

[caneman]

man oh man, that ULL really isn't moving much. I belive we are going to continue to see shifts to the right.

[Sanibel]

South tip of Martinique getting raked by the eyewall. Dean stays mostly overwater as the eye threads the channel between St Lucia and Martinique. Some dawn there on the island. Northern St Lucia under return eye winds as well. Surprise. 77kts - no major at landfall.