ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Man i don't do this often but im about to agree with JB...Were about to get EDUCATED in RI folks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

What is JB saying?

[gboudx]

The little vortex that was helping that trough seems to have gone poof.

[Air Force Met]

But AFM isnt there a slight possibilty they underestimated the influence of the trough as some of the models have suggested? And a close to WNW/NW movement continues.

Just asking.

I am speaking strickly short term...as in what its going to do over the next 6-12 hours. There is still ridging to the north of it.

[Steve]

>>yep trough really is digging down

Trough looks like it's peaked and is orienting itself in such a way that a split should begin in the next 12 or so hours as it washes with the upper feature south of Apalachacola. See the slight SSW bend and narrowing of the trough? First sign of a trough split which is more typical of La Nina or Neutral years than El Nino patterns. This happens all year long until you go into a progressive pattern (more typical of El Ninos). FYI

/not a pro just an observer

[Portastorm]

Man i don't do this often but im about to agree with JB...Were about to get EDUCATED in RI folks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

What is JB saying?

landfall west of 90 degrees latitude and that Gustav is going to give a classic example of rapid intensification soon.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man i don't do this often but im about to agree with JB...Were about to get EDUCATED in RI folks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

What is JB saying?

he is getting ready to concede to Katrina 2 it sounds like but his biggest comment were were about to see and witness RI..

[cpdaman]

good observation about that swirl south of fl panhandle poofing away (seems that was driving trough, and thanks for that info steve......good work

[AJC3]

Here's a 13-hour time lapse of the Pilon radar ending at 9:45 this morning...

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/Pi ... 290945.GIF

[Extremeweatherguy]

Man i don't do this often but im about to agree with JB...Were about to get EDUCATED in RI folks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

What is JB saying?

From what I can see in his post this morning, it looks like he thinks Gustav will make landfall west of 90W as a Cat. 3/4 and then Hanna will follow shortly after making landfall east of 90W. He said that this will be the quickest one-two punch in U.S. history.

As for the short term, (in response to RI in specific), he said: "A lesson in how to intensify is about to be taught".

[deltadog03]

Look over the SE...There is another Short Wave digging south as well. As, AFM said, this trof dosn't look like its going anywhere in a hurry....So, another episode of sit and wait...

[cpdaman]

The little vortex that was helping that trough seems to have gone poof.

yes although on gator's link (page 283) with better detail you can see it is still there just "still in the process" of going poof

[Smurfwicked]

AFM...you are saying temporary...with the trough moving fast will it move out of the way sooner...thus still making a more west direction...or will it still move it NNE?

Trofs are hard to forecast for...especially trofs that aren't fully developed down to the sfc (like you see with a front). This trof isn't moving allthat quick. It is still diggin southward and it remains to be seen if it will close of and retrograde out of the way.

AFM, I'm sure glad you're on the board this morning to clarify these things for us that don't know. *thumbs up*

I know you're speaking in the short term but...

The trough looks to be moving southeast, so basically if it gets above Gustav to the north it will force it more WNW versus if it goes further south being northwest of Gustav it would steer it more northerly correct?

Also you said the movement is due to the interference with Jamaica, is it likely that forward speed has been restricted with land interaction, and will gradually pick up as well? (I'm guessing that would have to take place before the trough gets closer?)

[Steve]

Wow. Katrina 2? Quickest 1-2 punch in US History (per European Model's last couple of runs)? Is the history of the Gulf Coast about to be altered for all times? Damn. I'm not a doom and gloomer and often don't agree with Bastardi (even though I concede his superior expertise). That's crazy stuff there. For everyone from the voice of experience:

Take your photographs, negatives videos and old home movies with you. These cannot be replaced unless you have them stored on electronic media somewhere. This is the most critical advise that someone who has lost everything can give anyone. Trust me. You won't regret it. You can get a new house, new furniture and new things, but you can't get new photographs.

Steve

[KWT]

Center heading around 295 right now from what I can see, does look like its north of the forecast point, thats a big deal as it probably means this hits isles of pines which reduces the amount of time for strengthening possibly as much as 6-9hrs.

The core is looking very good right now, really do think JB is onto something with the RI.

[gboudx]

The little vortex that was helping that trough seems to have gone poof.

yes although on gator's link (page 283) with better detail you can see it is still there just "still in the process" of going poof

Yeah I don't know, maybe it my tired eyes but it appears to be poof in gatorcane's link to me as well. Both loops end at 1315UTC so at least the timeframe is the same for comparison.

[BigB0882]

Trofs, ridges and vortexes, OH MY! I'm confused, wake me up when this is over!

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[BigB0882]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

That is just insane!

[bayoubebe]

Fellow Louisianians, have any of you heard of any mandatory evacuations issued yet?
I know it's still way down there, but from what I'm reading it sounds like it will strenghten quickly and then start moving a bit faster
/concerned about traffic, etc.

[BigB0882]

Fellow Louisianians, have any of you heard of any mandatory evacuations issued yet?
I know it's still way down there, but from what I'm reading it sounds like it will strenghten quickly and then start moving a bit faster
/concerned about traffic, etc.

I expect those to come tomorrow, if needed.