ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

If Matthew continues to go due north for the next 6-8 hours, it won't spend more than a couple hours over Cuba.

Does not even look like its going to cross cuba at all.

[gatorcane]

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[marciacubed]

looks like its wobbling a little more to nne may miss land completely ..

What do you mean land? Florida!???

[stephen23]

looks like its wobbling a little more to nne may miss land completely ..

What do you mean land? Florida!???

Cuba

[WPBWeather]

looks like its wobbling a little more to nne may miss land completely ..

What do you mean land? Florida!???

No its hitting a lot of FL now.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its wobbling a little more to nne may miss land completely ..

What do you mean land? Florida!???

No its hitting a lot of FL now.

talking about the short term for cuba. the center looks like it might stay offshore.

[tgenius]

so with GFS/GFDL/NAVGEM and now EURO moving west, I've got to imagine that the track shifts at 5pm.

[SeaBrz_FL]

ECMWF now showing Florida East Coast landfall, around Melbourne.

ECMWF joins the 12z west train that includes I think every model, save for the HWRF. NHC sure to adjust the cone west as well at 5pm. Now you have to wonder if Hurricane Watches may be needed for Miami and Broward...

Where did you get that information? if it comes on shore it would be the first direct hit to Brevard county.

First direct hit of a MAJOR hurricane; we've had Cat 1 and 2. It is kind of amazing that we have the longest coastline (72 miles) of any FL county and have never had a Major hit. Maybe the old "NASA built KSC here because Majors would never hit" rumor will finally be buried forever.

[artist]

The eye first crosses Palm Beach county

Euro showing Melbourne, FL land fall. That's 20 mins south of me..Not good.

[marciacubed]

What do you mean land? Florida!???

No its hitting a lot of FL now.

talking about short turn for cuba. the center looks like it might stay offshore.

Oh thank you. I am prepared. We installed impact windows after Wilma. This will be my first hurricane that I can see out the windows. I don't know how I feel about that

[Tireman4]

Just an aside for the newbies. Make sure to update your profile to include where you live. That way, the pro mets can help you when you ask, "What shall I expect from Storm A"? Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[Weatherboy1]

As if we needed any other reason to worry and shift into major prep mode here in South FL, the Euro pretty much sealed the deal. Gassed up cars this morning and yesterday, topped off the propane tank, bought all the water, batteries and canned supplies before today's big model shifts, so in good shape. Now to go shutter the 'rents house and then my own tomorrow. Crazy.

[GCANE]

More Gonzo Drops at 500mb, Heights:

At 28.1N 75.1W
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5869m
NAM: 5855m
RAP: 5868m

At 29.9N 75.1W:
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5868m
NAM: 5853m
RAP: 5867m

[karenfromheaven]

LOL. Everybody loves the Bahamas, even hurricanes.

Not funny, but damn. I either laugh or cry.

Don't know if this is on-topic but for those of you with 2-story houses, do you bother boarding up the second story windows as well? Got two big windows upstairs to my master bedroom and it would be a real hassle to have to board those up. But then again, it would be a bigger hassle to get them replaced and deal with the damage.

Not only is boarding up important to protect windows from damage, it also serves to protect the structure from wind intrusion should the opening be breached. If high winds are allowed into the structure, the likeliehood of roof failure or loss increases greatly. And the winds might be a little stronger on the second floor. They certainly are stronger in the upper floors of high rise buildings.

Karen,
Are you in LeHigh? You shouldn't be having winds strong enough to warrant boarding up.
BUT - if you are going to board up, YES, you should board ALL windows to prevent the storm from entering your home through any weak spot, such as unboarded window. Plus, it is true, the winds are higher in higher altitudes, and the second floor IS higher than first floor, so....

Yes, I am. But I was responding to Arsenic's question about his house. Local WINK weather this morning was predicting TS gusts for here in Lehigh Acres (inland east from Fort Myers for you non-SWFL readers!), so I expect to be fine.

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense.. and its looks like its going to shoot the gap.. which mean little to no weakening .. down stream well just means it will stay strong..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

More Gonzo Drops at 500mb, Heights:

At 28.1N 75.1W
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5869m
NAM: 5855m
RAP: 5868m

At 29.9N 75.1W:
Measured: 5870m
GFS: 5868m
NAM: 5853m
RAP: 5867m

So slightly stronger ridging still than the models are initializing..

[SunnyThoughts]

eyewall on radar is becoming extremely intense.. and its looks like its going to shoot the gap.. which mean little to no weakening .. down stream well just means it will stay strong..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Certainly isn't going to have much interaction with Cuba, that's for sure.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, ridge is getting even stronger...

[jlauderdal]

that ridge looks stout on the euro...gfs and ukie met have been leaning that way...tropical storm warning upper keys to deerfield are in order or hurricane watch, hurricane warning deerfield to st augustine..someone is getting an eyewall of a major on the east coast of florida

[xironman]

I have a wedding to attend in the outer banks on Oct 15 - next weekend. They have already started evacuations on the barrier islands. For those who are more familiar with the evacuation protocols, how soon would they let people back on the islands? If the GFS is correct, the storm would be safely OTS later Sunday-Monday (Oct 9-10). If the Euro is correct, the storm would be spinning itself down for days off the SE coast near Florida. Just trying to figure out when they decide to give the all-clear to let people back on the barrier islands in both scenarios.

Also, on a related note, the bride and groom are quite determined to be at their beach house that they rented for the week of Oct 9-16. Does the national guard have the authority to force people off the island? Can they arrest anyone who refuses to comply?

It matters where you are, Kitty Hawk and Nags Head may have re-entrance pretty early. For Hatteras Island it all matters on RT 12, if it breaches in Rodanthe than all bets are off until NCDOT can rebuild the road. Once again if on Hatteras Island do not stay in the beach house, the locals will be trying desperately to clean up after the storm and don't want visitors in the way.