Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5721 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:51 am

CMC is a crusher for the N half.

Metroplexers are in the bullseye this winter. Sadly ice though
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5722 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:54 am

Haris wrote:CMC is a crusher for the N half.

Metroplexers are in the bullseye this winter. Sadly ice though


The 12z CMC has a Sleetstorm for DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5723 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:59 am

Haris wrote:CMC is a crusher for the N half.

Metroplexers are in the bullseye this winter. Sadly ice though


HP does look like it is bumped closer against the Rockies vs early in the month so hopefully that angle is better for driving some deep cold.

That -EPO ridge though, so persistent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5724 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:CMC is a crusher for the N half.

Metroplexers are in the bullseye this winter. Sadly ice though


HP does look like it is bumped closer against the Rockies vs early in the month so hopefully that angle is better for driving some deep cold.

That -EPO ridge though, so persistent.



Remember that Earlier this winter, there was a stubborn +EPO Trough? This -EPO Ridge is a counter to that!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5725 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:09 pm

The 12z GEFS is colder than ever right now! :cold: :froze: :cold:

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_26.png
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5726 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:CMC is a crusher for the N half.

Metroplexers are in the bullseye this winter. Sadly ice though


HP does look like it is bumped closer against the Rockies vs early in the month so hopefully that angle is better for driving some deep cold.

That -EPO ridge though, so persistent.



Remember that Earlier this winter, there was a stubborn +EPO Trough? This -EPO Ridge is a counter to that!


Yeah it's been a drastic reversal. Interesting thing is, it was still ridge in the NPAC. All it took was the tropical forcing to shift a little to move that ridge a bit east and have vastly different outcomes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5727 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:13 pm



That has to be the coldest run of the GEFS I’ve seen all year for hour 150, is it not??
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5728 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:27 pm

TWC app has me hitting 77 on Monday(!). That would be the warmest temperature since December. Then down to 16 by Wednesday morning with snow and the apps are usually too warm at this range :double:

Also has snow Wednesday and Thursday
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5729 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 12:30 pm

Brent wrote:TWC app has me hitting 77 on Monday(!). That would be the warmest temperature since December. Then down to 16 by Wednesday morning with snow and the apps are usually too warm at this range :double:

Also has snow Wednesday and Thursday


KFOR has the snow Wednesday & Thursday, 30+°F below normal, this is insane.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5730 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:Ok, which one of you is responsible for poking a hole in my wall?


There was a reason why i moved up here.......
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5731 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:42 pm

Now is about the time euro loses its marbles with shallow air. Just way too “warm” next week. I bet it at least 10-15 colder. Still has the ice storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5732 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 17, 2022 1:54 pm

Haris wrote:Now is about the time euro loses its marbles with shallow air. Just way too “warm” next week. I bet it at least 10-15 colder. Still has the ice storm.


We know better by now :lol: another classic. It's now the warmest of the bunch (but still cold). Won't age well in a week. SW flow aloft gives it fits.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5733 Postby bevolon » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:09 pm

Seems a little slow in here considering the possible weather next week here in DFW. I guess still a little far off.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5734 Postby Haris » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Haris wrote:Now is about the time euro loses its marbles with shallow air. Just way too “warm” next week. I bet it at least 10-15 colder. Still has the ice storm.


We know better by now :lol: another classic. It's now the warmest of the bunch (but still cold). Won't age well in a week. SW flow aloft gives it fits.



it is currently 37 in Dallas and it *initialized* at 47. What a heap of trash.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5735 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:13 pm

Meanwhile, it's a sunny 77 degrees here in southwest Houston. Not bad for February. I don't think the GFS is handling the front well next week. It stalls the front just north of Houston, which is fine with me, but that's unlikely. Has a light freeze for Houston next Friday. Unacceptable, but tolerable.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5736 Postby Wntrwthrguy » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:23 pm

Does next week’s setup look about the same in terms of temperature/precip/duration as the storm we had in the beginning of February?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5737 Postby wxman22 » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:41 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5738 Postby losf1981 » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:45 pm



pardon my ignorance but why does you graphic say "experimental" at the top?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5739 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:53 pm

losf1981 wrote:


pardon my ignorance but why does you graphic say "experimental" at the top?


They are experimenting the Hazardous outlooks through 14 days, they've been doing it for a while.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5740 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 17, 2022 2:56 pm

Clash of the Titans, Version 2

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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