Global model runs discussion

[hurricanekid416]

Every model has its flaws

[Steve]

Sure. But what are you saying? A lot of posters and mets hug the ecmwf like it was mother's milk. It's not that great. I'm. A big fan but you should rarely look to it for genesis. A lot of south and southeast texans love it because it gives them hope sometimes. 2013? Its been behind the curve in its long range with a very bad prognostic on its 30-60 day outlooks, and has predicted nor generated anything. It's generally okay with medium range stuff butwhat are you saying? Of course all models have their weaknesses but are you defending it?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Euro hasnt exactly had much to "miss" in the Atlantic this year. The four named storms haven't exactly been powerhouses. In contrast, why not bring up the bogus storms the GFS and CMC have developed? For instance, GFS had a bogus TC/cane in the central Atlantic before Dorian. At least we have one conservative model.

It doesn't matter if they weren't big. The euro just doesn't show development. GFS hasn't developed any bogus storms. That hurricane it was showing was from the wave that spawned Dorian, it was just too strong and when you have 4 models showing development you tend to believe there will be some sort of development. I like the euro but I just agree with others with it's issue on development.

[ROCK]

Sure. But what are you saying? A lot of posters and mets hug the ecmwf like it was mother's milk. It's not that great. I'm. A big fan but you should rarely look to it for genesis. A lot of south and southeast texans love it because it gives them hope sometimes. 2013? Its been behind the curve in its long range with a very bad prognostic on its 30-60 day outlooks, and has predicted nor generated anything. It's generally okay with medium range stuff butwhat are you saying? Of course all models have their weaknesses but are you defending it?

what does that mean? gives us SE Texans hope? I dont think you want to be calling out Texans...Just sayin...


The EURO is good at track only...always has been. I look towards the CMC, New NAVGEM, FIM now for cyclone genesis....

[Steve]

Not you Rock, but there are unnamed Texans (pros and their brothers and regular posters) who ride it like their first gf. You KNOW i am not naming names. I give the ecmwf as much credence as anyone. But there are some who only look to it. And it has shown serious flaws this season regarding 30-60 day outlooks and lack of genesis. Are you disagreeing with that or just bucking up for the longhorns?

[Ntxw]

Both models have their own benefits. Forecasters like to hug euro sometimes bc it doesn't catch on until something gets going (still far out enough to use) and you don't risk crying wolf and when it shows something big it's worth getting worked up for. GFS is better in the deep tropics with genesis but if it had it's way Puerto Rico and the US would've been hit by a few long range canes by now.

[ROCK]

Not you Rock, but there are unnamed Texans (pros and their brothers and regular posters) who ride it like their first gf. You KNOW i am not naming names. I give the ecmwf as much credence as anyone. But there are some who only look to it. And it has shown serious flaws this season regarding 30-60 day outlooks and lack of genesis. Are you disagreeing with that or just bucking up for the longhorns?

I had to call you on that one.... the EURO is good with track only. Its one screw up was with Debbie last year but on average of the last 3 years it has been better than the GFS. That is factual data to support that. Now I have to question the new GFS ability to forecast cyclone genesis this year. Its been late to the party so far....

my model of choice this year is the New NAVGEM and FIM9......

[Kingarabian]

Both models have their own benefits. Forecasters like to hug euro sometimes bc it doesn't catch on until something gets going (still far out enough to use) and you don't risk crying wolf and when it shows something big it's worth getting worked up for. GFS is better in the deep tropics with genesis but if it had it's way Puerto Rico and the US would've been hit by a few long range canes by now.

100% agreed.

I mean the way the GFS and the CMC spawn storms... they are bound to get something right.

[southerngale]

Not you Rock, but there are unnamed Texans (pros and their brothers and regular posters) who ride it like their first gf. You KNOW i am not naming names. I give the ecmwf as much credence as anyone. But there are some who only look to it. And it has shown serious flaws this season regarding 30-60 day outlooks and lack of genesis. Are you disagreeing with that or just bucking up for the longhorns?

Come on, Steve. You can't pick one or two people from an area and lump that into " A lot of south and southeast texans love it because it gives them hope sometimes" without offending a lot of people who have been hit by hurricanes in this area and certainly don't see the Euro pointing a system this way as "hope." We don't even have a system yet. Let's not stir the pot.

And if someone wants to only look to the Euro, who cares? That doesn't make the Euro any better or any worse and most logical people will still look at many models.

[Steve]

I know you've been pushing that FIM. And I know you maintain it's better with established systems. But in some of the past 10 year sit has been decent on general long range patterns. But it has not achieved anything in 2013. Nor IMHO has GFS. I have some specific info out there regarding the next potential threat 7-8 days out and an overall calling for 3 more hits MS-NC and another mex/tex. no models can deliver that.

[Steve]

Agreed gale. But you and I both know who pulls for what. It's not everyone in TX which I never said. But there are more Texans that pimp EU than active north Carolinians or Floridians. And I even said I prefer it. But there are those who fight model wars based off ecmwf. I'll back off and ask everyone to simply observe. It is science inasmuch as it is science that there will be season cancel posts through mid August every season.

[Fego]

If is has been estated that the euro is not good predicting development then, imo, is useless to criticize it because of that. Besides that we all know that the GFS and the ECMWF are the NHC's two top models.

[Alyono]

Both models have their own benefits. Forecasters like to hug euro sometimes bc it doesn't catch on until something gets going (still far out enough to use) and you don't risk crying wolf and when it shows something big it's worth getting worked up for. GFS is better in the deep tropics with genesis but if it had it's way Puerto Rico and the US would've been hit by a few long range canes by now.

I'm sure the Philippines wish the EC would have verified

It has missed EVERYTHING this year in terms of genesis

[Ntxw]

Both models have their own benefits. Forecasters like to hug euro sometimes bc it doesn't catch on until something gets going (still far out enough to use) and you don't risk crying wolf and when it shows something big it's worth getting worked up for. GFS is better in the deep tropics with genesis but if it had it's way Puerto Rico and the US would've been hit by a few long range canes by now.

I'm sure the Philippines wish the EC would have verified

It has missed EVERYTHING this year in terms of genesis

Hence the part about bad genesis in the deep tropics. That doesn't make the model worthless.

[southerngale]

Steve...
There are also a lot more Texans on here than North Carolinians, but I disagree about more Texans than Floridians preferring the Euro. I would say it's probably evenly split across the coast and I'm on here more than you.
(although, admittedly, I really don't pay that much attention to the members' model preferences)

For the record, I think "model wars" are stupid. I also couldn't care less who prefers what model. To each their own. I don't really have a preference. I've just kind of learned which ones to pay more attention to for different reasons, but like most others, pay more attention to the consensus and trends.

[Ntxw]

Steve...
There are also a lot more Texans on here than North Carolinians, but I disagree about more Texans than Floridians preferring the Euro. I would say it's probably evenly split across the coast and I'm on here more than you.
(although, admittedly, I really don't pay that much attention to the members' model preferences)

For the record, I think "model wars" are stupid. I also couldn't care less who prefers what model. To each their own. I don't really have a preference. I've just kind of learned which ones to pay more attention to for different reasons, but like most others, pay more attention to the consensus and trends.

I agree here, it's not about which model is better is how you use them and know their strengths and weakness. You're talking about complex equations and numbers beyond our heads can try to put together. Where would we be without them? We take them for granted and bash them quite often when they're wrong vs seeing what we can take out of it.

[Steve]

You got that right. And I am in that same camp unless I can look at surface plots that are legit. 57 and Jason Kelly/007 taught me that.

[caneman]

I agree with Steve and has been clear that quite a few Texans have preferred The Euro and it has been equally clear that many Floridians prefer the GFS. I have argued that you need to use all models and recognize their weaknesses and strengths. I could be wrong but it does seem like the GFS outperformed the Euro last year? Euro did a great job the year before that. Which model will be better this year, I don't know. Which model or group of models can we trust right now is all I really care about right now.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow, it's all coming down to model this and model that and it's only August 11. No hurricanes: blame the models. Awesome! There's no hurricanes because it's not time yet, not because any particular man-made model is not performing up to snuff.

[ROCK]

how about that NAM?