Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

IMO (not a professional) we are going to get another shot of winter. NTX hinted at it a couple of weeks ago. Mid February for the win. My bet is by this Saturday we will be talking about V day weekend as the next possible winter weather event.

[Ptarmigan]

A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns
https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterC ... rivers.pdf

El Nino, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quasi Biennial Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Eastern Pacific Oscillation are mentioned.

[Ralph's Weather]

Plenty of time to work out the details, but this would be a very impressive blizzard for the Panhandles. Enjoy the warm stretch.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026020112/378/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The intermountain west needs a deep trough, not a baja low undercutting ridge we just had. They are dire, places that get 50+ inches of snow have seen less than an inch. I just hope the troughs out west don't trend eastward for their sake.

THIS. It's not just about salvaging ski season for them. This could be a really nasty fire season in late summer if there's not a decent snow pack built up. Blue Mesa Reservoir in Gunnison County is the largest lake in Colorado, and water releases from it will feed Utah and Arizona. Snowmelt from the western slope fills it, so a low snow season would also trickle (pun) downstream to other areas. And once you start building drought, you have to worry about heat domes and the feedback loop it starts to create. We obviously want/need the moisture too, but the further west you go the more dire this is going to become. Hopefully a well-timed El Nino can start pumping moisture where it's needed, and at this point we're probably going to have to hope that we have a really good monsoon season for the west.

I worry about late spring and early summer in the southern Rockies. Northern NM's worst fire started in April. This could be a bad year for fires and spring run off into the rivers will be very low.

[Brent]

IMO (not a professional) we are going to get another shot of winter. NTX hinted at it a couple of weeks ago. Mid February for the win. My bet is by this Saturday we will be talking about V day weekend as the next possible winter weather event.

Same. It was 83 even up here to begin February last year even warmer than the forecast now and we still had a week or two of winter around and just after Valentine's Day I'm not really worried about it. I don't even remember our storm last week showing up for real here til it was about a week out anyway. Certainly not what it became. I remember looking at the ensembles for days 2 weeks out wondering if it would ever snow because it only showed a couple snowy members and then well yeah the rest is history. Our entire average in one storm. It still hasn't fully melted after 9 days

And yeah I definitely agree about the drought out west it's bad and they need help for sure. Hopefully El Nino will help towards spring and summer

[Brazoria979cnty]

Well the groundhog said it...6 more weeks of winter!

[cajungal]

All this talk about winter storm valentines weekend all the way to Gulf coast. And now nothing. And looks like spring temps next weekend and beyond

[Quixotic]

Going to go out on a limb here and say we have something to track within a week.

[Brent]

Going to go out on a limb here and say we have something to track within a week.

Said it earlier but same. You'll never convince me we don't get another shot

3 weeks ago I wasn't even sure it was going to snow here at all this winter and now we can't get rid of it the walkway here is still icy

[Stratton23]

Yep, I still think we get another shot, im sticking with my idea that just before valentines is when we get changes

[orangeblood]

Ensemble members teleconnection forecasts are really unfavorable for winter weather in the southern plains mid month, not a good signal! AO/NAO going neutral, EPO +, WPO +, PNA -. Where is the cold going to go from and how is it going to get here ? Pacific Jet is slamming into West Coast mid month

[TomballEd]

1995 or 1996, a 99F February day was followed a week later by an ice storm. But that doesn't always happen.

[jasons2k]

I’m putting down pre-emergent tonight.

[Lagreeneyes03]

All this talk about winter storm valentines weekend all the way to Gulf coast. And now nothing. And looks like spring temps next weekend and beyond

Kind of what happened with the last one though, there was nothing, until we woke up 7 days out on a Sunday Morning and even the TV mets were mentioning it and by Tuesday DFW was going crazy and the grocery runs were on.

[cajungal]

All this talk about winter storm valentines weekend all the way to Gulf coast. And now nothing. And looks like spring temps next weekend and beyond

Kind of what happened with the last one though, there was nothing, until we woke up 7 days out on a Sunday Morning and even the TV mets were mentioning it and by Tuesday DFW was going crazy and the grocery runs were on.

Just that time is clicking here in SE Louisiana now that it is February

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS dumping all the Northern Hemisphere cold

[Gotwood]

Ensemble members teleconnection forecasts are really unfavorable for winter weather in the southern plains mid month, not a good signal! AO/NAO going neutral, EPO +, WPO +, PNA -. Where is the cold going to go from and how is it going to get here ? Pacific Jet is slamming into West Coast mid month

We will know by this coming weekend if anything might be on the horizon. If not well hello storm season.

[txtwister78]

WPO turns negative again beyond the 14-15th and with the PNA negative there's going to be reversal starting in the west most likely should that hold but how cold and how deep that gets down into Texas remains to be seen.

Still need that AO to cooperate at that point but as has been the case for us most of this winter, the waiting game returns. The only question now with our calendar being what it is, does the reversal come in time to really deliver what most want before winter is officially all but over for most of Texas.

[orangeblood]

Interesting news at the bottom of the planet!!!

 https://x.com/Electroversenet/status/2018353718404554877

[TomballEd]

12z GFS dumping all the Northern Hemisphere cold

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026020212/384/850t_anom.na.png

That doesn't help in Texas much if the core of the coldest low level air is on the wrong side of the Rocky Mountains.

[txtwister78]

12z GFS dumping all the Northern Hemisphere cold

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026020212/384/850t_anom.na.png

That doesn't help in Texas much if the core of the coldest low level air is on the wrong side of the Rocky Mountains.

Looks like a phase 2 signal of the MJO which basically centers most of the cold where the 12z GFS run had it west/nw of Texas.

Wouldn't surprise me as we get into that transition if we saw some severe weather somewhere across the state.