ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 242043
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 03 20110824
203400 2700N 08141W 5666 04897 0107 -003 -100 043011 011 /// /// 03
203430 2659N 08139W 5684 04869 0108 -004 -089 052011 011 /// /// 03
203500 2657N 08137W 5676 04881 0109 -004 -092 049011 011 /// /// 03
203530 2656N 08135W 5677 04876 0105 -003 -095 046010 011 /// /// 03
203600 2654N 08133W 5676 04877 0105 -004 -093 038008 010 /// /// 03
203630 2653N 08130W 5678 04878 0113 -007 -075 045009 011 /// /// 03
203700 2652N 08128W 5676 04881 0106 -004 -076 043011 012 /// /// 03
203730 2651N 08125W 5680 04873 0100 +000 -104 029010 011 /// /// 03
203800 2651N 08123W 5679 04876 0102 +000 -104 019009 011 /// /// 03
203830 2651N 08120W 5678 04876 0104 -003 -086 019007 008 /// /// 03
203900 2651N 08118W 5680 04872 0103 -002 -120 026006 007 /// /// 03
203930 2651N 08115W 5680 04870 0104 -003 -111 051005 006 /// /// 03
204000 2650N 08112W 5679 04872 0102 -002 -138 037007 007 /// /// 03
204030 2650N 08110W 5680 04868 0101 -001 -127 029007 008 /// /// 03
204100 2650N 08107W 5679 04871 0108 -006 -086 055005 006 /// /// 03
204130 2649N 08104W 5679 04870 0103 -003 -103 035006 006 /// /// 03
204200 2649N 08102W 5679 04871 0108 -006 -085 038007 008 /// /// 03
204230 2649N 08059W 5682 04869 0107 -005 -095 023007 008 /// /// 03
204300 2649N 08057W 5680 04869 0106 -005 -103 022008 009 /// /// 03
204330 2648N 08054W 5682 04867 0108 -006 -105 024009 009 /// /// 03

[KWT]

A?ctually quite impressive to see how its broadly been moving on a 290-300 track for the last 2-3 days, not much deviation on that motion at all in that time.

[fci]

"Now Meteorologically, A direct landfall over NC (Wilmington area) on Saturday would weaken the storm far more and only allow a weaker Cat 1 at worst passing by NY some 24-36 hours later. The storm will undoubtedly bring nasty weather for this time frame, hopefully a major disaster resulting from this storm will not happen in New England or anywhere else. This is my hope!"

Hope for something else. I have a house and 2 kids in Wilmington. TYVM...

Your area is also included, sorry for the confusion. I hope your family is prepared! I am really afraid this storm is the real deal.

No harm. It's maddening trying to figure out what to tell them to do (evacs). They have food, water, batteries, full tanks of gas...I just don't know whether or not to tell them to get the hell back to Charlotte. Hopefully Wilmington is taking an overly cautious approach given the number of kids there. Arg.

Maybe I am mistaken, but last I looked the consensus was that she was going to pass well east of Wilmington.
According to the 11 AM NHC track and How Close can it get; she would come within 116.9 miles Saturday afternoon.
Provided this comes to fruition, there will be minimal effects there, on the west side of the storm more than 100 miles away from the center.
Of course, listed to all local authorities and the NHC for further information and details (no disclaimer needed since I am not predicting anything, just regurgitating the NHC information)

UPDATE- The 5 PM track has the center of the storm still about 113 miles from Wilmington.
I'd tell my kids to enjoy watching the high surf and stay out of the water due to rip currents!
But that's just me........

Now, if they were in East Hampton Long Island, I'd say make plans to get out of the way because the current track goes right over it..

[hurricaneCW]

What's it doing now? It's hard to tell, either its slowing down, turning more to the north, or the building of convection is giving an illusion of a stall or more northward motion.

[Stormcenter]

I know it's not (will at least it's not suppose to)but in the attached loop it sure looks like Irene is headed right toward Fl. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

hurricaneCW, it sure does look like its slowed down, probably going to have to wait for the recon pass to get a good idea of whether it has *really* slowed down or not, would make sense though ahead of the turn to the NW/NNW over the next 24hrs.

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 242053
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTNT24 KNHC 242052
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 74.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 270SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 74.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 125SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



000
WTNT34 KNHC 242052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE HITTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS HARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 74.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
FONT14 KNHC 242053
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 3 19 28
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 7 15 23
TROPICAL STORM X X 1 4 24 37 35
HURRICANE 99 99 99 96 67 30 14
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 8 19 34 22 11
HUR CAT 2 9 14 20 31 19 6 3
HUR CAT 3 73 57 48 33 11 2 X
HUR CAT 4 15 23 21 12 2 1 X
HUR CAT 5 1 3 3 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 115KT 115KT 110KT 100KT 85KT 55KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

Code: Select all

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - - 

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  26(31)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  23(30)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
CONCORD NH     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  22(36)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  22(40)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  20(42)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  19(39)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  14(33)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)  13(41)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   8(35)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   6(30)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
NEWARK NJ      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   5(28)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)   4(39)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   2(20)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   1(33)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   2(23)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   1(18)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  32(45)   2(47)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   1(19)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)   X(29)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  21(50)   X(50)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   X(16)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  21(52)   1(53)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   5(28)   X(28)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  61(64)  12(76)   X(76)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)  14(42)   X(42)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  60(69)   4(73)   X(73)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)   5(39)   X(39)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  49(60)   2(62)   X(62)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   1(27)   X(27)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  35(49)   1(50)   X(50)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  21(35)   1(36)   X(36)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   6( 6)  13(19)   6(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   5( 5)  14(19)   6(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL   34  1   7( 8)  16(24)   5(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

W PALM BEACH   34  3  11(14)  11(25)   3(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MIAMI FL       34  3   6( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

MARATHON FL    34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

TAMPA FL       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  4  55(59)  13(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X  13(13)  12(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 69  23(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  7  42(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  1  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ANDROS         34 61  10(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
ANDROS         50  5   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ANDROS         64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GREAT EXUMA    50 93   1(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GREAT EXUMA    64 30   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

SAN SALVADOR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN SALVADOR   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN SALVADOR   64 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

MAYAGUANA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GRAND TURK     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CIENFUEGOS     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)


$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cpdaman]

yes perhaps it's waiting for the ridge to build in a tad to the north .

otherwise i would say it's about to turn from 300-305 to 315+ ....but who knows should know by 7pm

[divanicki75]

I really need to change my screen name to "nervousNelly"...

I follow TWC models, which have us (Charleston, SC) out of the cone. I didn't live here when Hugo hit, but I have repeated heard yesterday & today from co-workers who did that Hugo was heading somewhere else, then it turned and slammed into Charleston. This is why everyone was so unprepared. I've stopped my preparations to head to Charlotte based on us being out of the cone, but I realize that if Irene decided to stop by for a visit, we'd be in a world of hurt because again, we were unprepared. She's still to the South of us and could technically still hit us, although it's not likely. I have 2 small children and have visions of people on their roofs post-Katrina in my head. Am I being a nervous Nelly and should I stay put or should I be Charlotte bound? Any insight since y'all know a LOT more about how hurricanes behave would be MUCH appreciated!

[Canelaw99]

Stormcenter- I can't see the loop on my phone, but it sure has seemed that way for a long time now. Gotta trust the NHC and what they're forecasting, but it sure does make one nervous down here!!

[chris_fit]

Looks like a nice jog to the N on the last frame... she's totally on track, I have no idea on how the NHC does it

[Raebie]

Maybe I am mistaken, but last I looked the consensus was that she was going to pass well east of Wilmington.
According to the 11 AM NHC track and How Close can it get; she would come within 116.9 miles Saturday afternoon.
Provided this comes to fruition, there will be minimal effects there, on the west side of the storm more than 100 miles away from the center.
Of course, listed to all local authorities and the NHC for further information and details (no disclaimer needed since I am not predicting anything, just regurgitating the NHC information)

Which is why they haven't evacuated. But it's still a long way away...

[KWT]

Looks like a nice jog to the N on the last frame... she's totally on track, I have no idea on how the NHC does it

Its a little south of track, not much but it is south. Probably just the system stair-stepping though.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

[quote=

No harm. It's maddening trying to figure out what to tell them to do (evacs). They have food, water, batteries, full tanks of gas...I just don't know whether or not to tell them to get the hell back to Charlotte. Hopefully Wilmington is taking an overly cautious approach given the number of kids there. Arg.[/quote]

Maybe I am mistaken, but last I looked the consensus was that she was going to pass well east of Wilmington.
According to the 11 AM NHC track and How Close can it get; she would come within 116.9 miles Saturday afternoon.
Provided this comes to fruition, there will be minimal effects there, on the west side of the storm more than 100 miles away from the center.
Of course, listed to all local authorities and the NHC for further information and details (no disclaimer needed since I am not predicting anything, just regurgitating the NHC information)[/quote]

Raebie, this just came out a few minutes ago from local news.
http://www.wect.com/story/15327022/what ... ere-i-live

[HenkL]

Results from the NOAA 1509A mission (500 hPa level):

[fci]

storms over florida are still moving east to west...

Natural seabreeze effect

[Fyzn94]

It almost looks like a slightly smaller version of Floyd, IMO.

[Steve H.]

Careful when looking at visible for direction of storm movement. With SW'ly shear and convection blowups, the "eye" gets covered over and you see various peeks at it giving the illusion of a north movement.

[Aric Dunn]

outer rain bands and CDO coming into long range out of miami..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I really need to change my screen name to "nervousNelly"...

I follow TWC models, which have us (Charleston, SC) out of the cone. I didn't live here when Hugo hit, but I have repeated heard yesterday & today from co-workers who did that Hugo was heading somewhere else, then it turned and slammed into Charleston. This is why everyone was so unprepared. I've stopped my preparations to head to Charlotte based on us being out of the cone, but I realize that if Irene decided to stop by for a visit, we'd be in a world of hurt because again, we were unprepared. She's still to the South of us and could technically still hit us, although it's not likely. I have 2 small children and have visions of people on their roofs post-Katrina in my head. Am I being a nervous Nelly and should I stay put or should I be Charlotte bound? Any insight since y'all know a LOT more about how hurricanes behave would be MUCH appreciated!

If you are using Hugo as a comparison, you might want to wicki that storm and see what it did to Charlotte. I find it better to always evacuate south of the storm not north, unless it is WAY north west.