ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WxEnthus]

Interesting buoy to monitor over the coming hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=EST

And this one as well:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Looks like Issac might pass between the two, depending on track shifts of course.

[ncweatherwizard]

It's a LOT further NW of the old center...by about 60-70 miles. It's a short term motion of about 30 mph. The LLC just got sucked up...

So wait...did this LLC actually move that far so quickly? I don't really understand how that could happen. Seems as equally likely that this LLC is an extension of the mid-level circulation toward the surface.

its not that it actually moved all at once its reform/being pulled reaction. the vorticity stretches and recoils in a way.

Sure it does (referring to the evolution of the vorticity), and that process works in three dimensions. How exactly that process plays out is a big mystery though.

[Houstonia]

Um... I'm confused. Can someone please explain about the center relocation and what it means to the forecast track as well as the models. Also, it seems like I read some people saying relocation to the NE and some people saying relocation to the NW. Can someone please EXPLAIN in commoner's words rather than cryptic one-sentence phrases with technical terms that give me a headache?

thanks!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Non updating recon image of just completed mission. 11PM and 2AM advisory positions noted. No track updates at intermediate advisories, so the track just goes from 2AM position to next point. 11pm cone. Latest radar and satellite floater as of when image made. Previous vortex messages plotted from other missions.

[BlueIce]

another plane on the way

Based on my late night reading skills it looks like the next recon missions will be the Gulfstream launching at 0530Z and then at 0830Z for the Airforce C-130 flight.

[Aric Dunn]

So wait...did this LLC actually move that far so quickly? I don't really understand how that could happen. Seems as equally likely that this LLC is an extension of the mid-level circulation toward the surface.

its not that it actually moved all at once its reform/being pulled reaction. the vorticity stretches and recoils in a way.

Sure it does (referring to the evolution of the vorticity), and that process works in three dimensions. How exactly that process plays out is a big mystery though.

yeah, I was just trying to describe it and not be technical. the vorticity stretches and moves of course but the original center not exits inacted... or the llc does not just move as a whole it warps and is pulled.

[Aric Dunn]

another plane on the way

Based on my late night reading skills it looks like the next recon missions will be the Gulfstream launching at 0530Z and then at 0830Z for the Airforce C-130 flight.

thought it took off in 15 min at 645.

[brunota2003]

Next plane departs in 15 minutes, will arrive at 430 am EDT and first fix is scheduled to be at 5 am EDT

TEAL 75

[BlueIce]

Next plane departs in 15 minutes, will arrive at 430 am EDT and first fix is scheduled to be at 5 am EDT

TEAL 75

Ya you guys are exactly right. Helps to look two lines above the observation time.

[WxEnthus]

Next plane departs in 15 minutes, will arrive at 430 am EDT and first fix is scheduled to be at 5 am EDT

TEAL 75

Well, it they might be sampling a bit sooner with the center relocation well to the NW now.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like the shear is decreasing around Isaac.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[WxEnthus]

Um... I'm confused. Can someone please explain about the center relocation and what it means to the forecast track as well as the models. Also, it seems like I read some people saying relocation to the NE and some people saying relocation to the NW. Can someone please EXPLAIN in commoner's words rather than cryptic one-sentence phrases with technical terms that give me a headache?

thanks!

I'll leave it to someone else with a better grasp on the impact of these things to explain how it may change the track but the relocation was definitely NW. The reference to NE was a typo.

[Extratropical1]

So maybe Texas now? Oy

[rtd2]

CERTAINLY looking better that this time yesterday

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[MidnightRain]

Is it me or has he picked up speed? Almost looks like he'll make landfall in well under 48 hours at this speed.

[Shuriken]

Um... I'm confused. Can someone please explain about the center relocation and what it means to the forecast track as well as the models. Also, it seems like I read some people saying relocation to the NE and some people saying relocation to the NW. Can someone please EXPLAIN in commoner's words rather than cryptic one-sentence phrases with technical terms that give me a headache?

The mid-level center associated with the most intense convection developed a smaller suction vortex at the surface on the northwest side of the previous larger circulation.

(The same thing almost happened in the Caribbean when the convection was on the southwest side of the larger pattern -- if it had, Isaac would have hit Jamaica.)

[windnrain]

Its a pretty storm.

I can easily see it continuing that nw motion to Louisiana. I think the GFS will have been right all along.

[bella_may]

is it just me or does this look like its drifting northward or nnw?

[TwisterFanatic]

is it just me or does this look like its drifting northward or nnw?

Illusion, most likely. I see WNW

[rtd2]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html


WALKING WNW Ladder...Lol wobble...wobble ...over all its right on NHC track