Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS sounds confused.

.LONG TERM...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW/MID
LEVELS SATURATE AS SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SNOW FLAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WET BULBING COOLS
THE LOWER LAYERS. SOUNDINGS THROUGH 700 MB RIGHT ALONG THE ZERO C
LINE...SO MAINLY RAIN. NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVELS. LOW LEVELS
GET A LITTLE WARMER THURSDAY MORNING WITH WARM ADVECTION...SO MAY
CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS....BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW OR SNOW
MIXTURE WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER
LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...OPENS UP AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 0.10 OR 0.20 INCHES...SO COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES...BUT SINCE IT WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW MIXTURE AND
SNOW MAY MELT AS IT FALLS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S...ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC. BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BIG COUNTRY... NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND.

THERE...HOWEVER...REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ALL THE COMPUTER
MODELS GIVE QUITE A VARIATION IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND PRECIPITATION
ALGORITHMS. THE ECMWF IS FASTER BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. IT ALSO DOES
DOES NOT OPEN UP THE UPPER TROUGH QUITE SO QUICKLY...AS IT MOVES THE
CENTER DIRECTLY THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS ALSO MUCH WETTER
WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID WATER. BEING COLDER...IS ALSO HAS
MORE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...AND COULD SEE 5 INCHES OF SNOW IF IT
INDEED VERIFIES. THE NAM MODEL IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AND BRINGS THE UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT... ALMOST ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TEXAS...THE
AREA THE ECMWF GIVES THE PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
WHICH HAS HAD A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION. IN DAY2 QPFPFD HPC
PREFERRED A SOLUTION TOWARD A NON-NAM CONSENSUS LED BY THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BOTH GFS AND ECWMF BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ALONG/BEHIND THE SYSTEM...BUT
KEEPING IT DRY IN THIS FORECAST.

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio continues to say "no snow for you, Portastorm!"

Memo from Portastorm to NWSFO Austin/San Antonio: you could look at other model guidance besides the GFS and NAM ... try the Euro or Canadian.

-------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INITIALLY AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
W-SW LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OFF CA DIGGING TOWARD BAJA.
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING MODIFIES THE
AIR MASS FROM MID LEVELS DOWNWARD. TEMPERATURES ON NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
OVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY HAS A MID LEVEL LAYER COOLING TO BELOW
FREEZING AND LOWERING DOWNWARD TOWARD THE SURFACE WED AFTERNOON
INTO WED EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER...ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE REMAINS JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER. THEREFORE THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION(LIGHT
RAIN & SLEET/MIXED WITH SNOW HILL COUNTRY) WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
WED AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. H0WEVER THE PERSISTENT RAIN
AND WARMING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COLD DREARY RAIN TO
PERSIST THRU THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH A WET GROUND AND MINIMAL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE GROUND.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS S TX ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN HILL COUNTRY/CWA...HOWEVER
THE 18Z NAM SHOWED A WARMER SOUNDING..BUT HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.

A DRY NWLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH COOL-MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS INTO THE 1ST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

[txagwxman]

18z same as the 12z...for some reason the 18z GFS is weakening the wave from deformation as it moves across Mexico across into Texas...I find this not a believable solution given the intensity of the short-wave trough on water vapor. 00z runs may have a better handle on it.

[Ntxw]

18z took away potential fun for the coastal regions of the deep south too. We're not the only ones in misery =P

[CaptinCrunch]

not buying into the models at this time, as in the past things looked bleek just before we got snowed on Christmas Eve. If anything I will fall back on the good old weather rock for it's wx goodness.

[orangeblood]

Looks like all of the government weather offices are using the American models. Let's see what the private sector has to say. They might be much more reliable.

[txagwxman]

not buying into the models at this time, as in the past things looked bleek just before we got snowed on Christmas Eve. If anything I will fall back on the good old weather rock for it's wx goodness.

Depends which model---UKMET/GEM like snow from Waco to Longview.

[Ntxw]

not buying into the models at this time, as in the past things looked bleek just before we got snowed on Christmas Eve. If anything I will fall back on the good old weather rock for it's wx goodness.

Well that was a bit different in set up. Also there was fresh cold air coming in as that storm passed making snow ratio's higher with less precip. It was strong enough to pull moisture all the way to it's backside. This set up is a bit different, as FW mentioned similar to that of the Dec. 29 snow event in north Texas. Cold air already in place slowly eroded away making for a heavy, messy snow the kind gulf coast areas are used to seeing.

We shouldn't compare snows to that event, those are rare in these parts (outside of Amarillo) for that fluffy kind of low water content snow.

[somethingfunny]

Corrigan, TX has a 90% chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. 30 miles to the southeast, Woodville, TX has a 90% chance of snow/sleet. The difference? Corrigan is in the NWS Houston area of responsibility; Woodville is covered by NWS Lake Charles. One of these two offices is going to bust.

[Kludge]

Translation of the local NWS offices afternoon discussions, " We expect to have a much better handle on Thursday afternoon's forecast by Thursday evening".

[CaptinCrunch]

not buying into the models at this time, as in the past things looked bleek just before we got snowed on Christmas Eve. If anything I will fall back on the good old weather rock for it's wx goodness.

Depends which model---UKMET/GEM like snow from Waco to Longview.

They all lie...lmao, they are evil and smash the dreams of little childern.....

[Kludge]

Corrigan, TX has a 90% chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. 30 miles to the southeast, Woodville, TX has a 90% chance of snow/sleet. The difference? Corrigan is in the NWS Houston area of responsibility; Woodville is covered by NWS Lake Charles. One of these two offices is going to bust.

Ooops... looks like they forgot that all-important "coordination call" this afternoon...

[somethingfunny]

In fact by looking around the region at different AFDs, San Angelo and DFW are on the same "no big deal but maybe" page as each other. San Antonio and Houston aren't buying into anything frozen. Lake Charles and Shreveport are extremely bullish (70% chance of snow for Tyler according to NWS Shreveport - only a 40% chance here according to NWS Fort Worth....when has Tyler ever out-snowed Dallas?)....and NWS Amarillo thinks the models are on crack.

We don't have much model agreement, and it doesn't look like we have much agreement within the National Weather Service offices either! Anything could happen, get your popcorn ready....

[katheria]

In fact by looking around the region at different AFDs, San Angelo and DFW are on the same "no big deal but maybe" page as each other. San Antonio and Houston aren't buying into anything frozen. Lake Charles and Shreveport are extremely bullish (70% chance of snow for Tyler according to NWS Shreveport - only a 40% chance here according to NWS Fort Worth....when has Tyler ever out-snowed Dallas?)....and NWS Amarillo thinks the models are on crack.

We don't have much model agreement, and it doesn't look like we have much agreement within the National Weather Service offices either! Anything could happen, get your popcorn ready....

think ill go back to the old ways of forecasting weather for the day...open door walk outside look up lol

[Weatherdude20]

On the Christmas Eve event we first predicted a "HUGE"/"MAJOR", Blizzard about 4 days out then models screwed us when the event came closer... So our hopes were killed, and it seemed imposible to happen. Then less than a day out, the NWS panicked when the Models came to thier senses! Im just gonna wait this one out, and like I said earlier, please don't trust the 3 or so main models, a smart met uses every tool in his tool box. I think we will be suprised Thursday evening thru Friday morning... Like was brought up this morning, the potential for evaporative cooling will play a huge role on the snow profile.

Note: The NWSFO in Fort Worth has taken out all snow on Thursday to Rain/snow mix.

I will not make my official forecast until tomorowish. Sorry. Too risky, and to many factors that can change the snow profile or precip amounts... Don't take everyting you here and just remember common knowledge, common sense, previous storms, NWSFO FW winter weather experince... Im hoping for the snow storm of the century ! But at this point not countin on it !


Keep your cool guys, and chill, I believe were in for a decent little storm.

[Ntxw]

I do believe it will snow along I-20 (give or take 50-100 miles on either side) and pretty much so does the NWS, the key here is whether or not the track\moisture allows for a significant event other than the regular run in the mill 1-2 inches that melt pretty much as soon as the snow ends.

[msstateguy83]

likely has been mentioned but i just looked at the canadian model fixing to look over the euro but the canadian appears to bring much colder air down around next monday the 15th... gfs on the other hand sends us into a pretty good warm up pattern which i dont trust worth nothing gfs i think is sending us trash i think... imo we will likely be in a very cold pattern next 14+ days...

[southerngale]

Corrigan, TX has a 90% chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. 30 miles to the southeast, Woodville, TX has a 90% chance of snow/sleet. The difference? Corrigan is in the NWS Houston area of responsibility; Woodville is covered by NWS Lake Charles. One of these two offices is going to bust.

Woodville's snow/sleet is now gone, as is mine, as I expected. I'm under LCH as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back in the forecast between now and Thursday, though... whether it sticks is another story. Flip-flopping models usually make for flip-flopping forecasts.

[setxweatherfreak]

No surprise there

[Portastorm]

Corrigan, TX has a 90% chance of rain Thursday night and Friday. 30 miles to the southeast, Woodville, TX has a 90% chance of snow/sleet. The difference? Corrigan is in the NWS Houston area of responsibility; Woodville is covered by NWS Lake Charles. One of these two offices is going to bust.

Woodville's snow/sleet is now gone, as is mine, as I expected. I'm under LCH as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes back in the forecast between now and Thursday, though... whether it sticks is another story. Flip-flopping models usually make for flip-flopping forecasts.

No snow for you, southerngale .... bwahahahahaha! or me for that matter!