ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFloridawx]

Sounds scary, lol...

the shift is coming at 12z..

[AHS2011]

If the storm doesn't go over Hispaniola does that increase the chance that it won't recurve on the east coast?

[Aric Dunn]

Is there a chance that Emily will not go over Hispaniola?

I think given the weakening trend Emily is showing, its certainly possible that it does just carry on to the W at 275/280...which would mean it will miss Hispaniola...

Im thinking considering the latest trends.. track over the peninsula. then start turning... especially if it can maintain..

[KWT]

The shift to them dropping the system totally probably

[KWT]

Im thinking considering the latest trends.. track over the peninsula. then start turning... especially if it can maintain..

Looking at the lay of the land, even a 20 mile shift SW would mean it tracking over land at 400ft rather then 3000+...

So small wobbles may make a big difference to this ones chance of survival...I can't rate that chance over 50% given the poor recon display and the fact its poking out of the convection again.

[xironman]

Moderate shear + dry air = stays weak or weakens more.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The Haitian Penninsula has mountains,but not as tall as in the DR,as those are over 10,000 feet.

[NDG]

Her LLC is about to go naked, is underneath the high thin cirrus clouds. Still moving around 275-280 degs.

[Stormcenter]

I agree with your comments but please lets not use Katrina as an example for anything.

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

I think you mean track right?

Nope he means left, a more westerly track for now will mean the forecast will need to shift a little to the west, may not make a huge amount of difference down the line YET but does need to be watched...

We've all seen times when systems constantly defy the models, possibly the mozst famous being Katrina which dived so well WSW of where was expected...turned out the ridge was 300% stronger then forecasted!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Seeing the UKMET and those BAMMS made me think of Charlie too. Though Charlie went over Cuba further west.
I remember the total shock I had waking up early to find that the Tropical Storm that was there when I went to sleep had rapidly intensified to a CAT 4 overnight, within just hours once it hit those warm waters around Cuba. Lots of energy there again this year. Hopefully the conditions won't be as conducive if/when Emily gets in the area, or S FL will be in for a surprise. Other than 1 local station, all the other mets are still telling folks to watch this, as the forecasted track is very tricky and the Hurricane center has said that there was not as much confidence in their forecast track as with most other storms. -but that we would know much more by tonight/early tomorrow.
We really need that G-VI data in the models.

[KWT]

The Haitian Penninsula has mountains,but not as tall as in the DR,as those are over 10,000 feet.

Yeah, as I said to Aric even a small difference in track will be key.

got to admit its a really poor time for this system to go naked, really needs some sort of convection to burst nearby otherwise its going to face a very hard long 24hrs and it'd struggle to survive...

Of course if it does stay weak and naked and track W then the game totally changes from what the models expect...

[Blown Away]

Look at the past few NHC advisory predicted forecast positions and each time Emily ends up a little S and W of the of their predicted points. At 5am NHC says Emily will be at 17.3N 69.8W by 5pm today, at 8am Emily is at 16.6N 69.0W, gonna be hard to reach 17.3N over the next 9 hours moving W. IMO Emily moves over the Haiti Tiburon Peninsuala into the Gulf of Gonave at a WNW clip and spends little time over land.

[xironman]

The Haitian Penninsula has mountains,but not as tall as in the DR,as those are over 10,000 feet.

Yeah, as I said to Aric even a small difference in track will be key.

got to admit its a really poor time for this system to go naked, really needs some sort of convection to burst nearby otherwise its going to face a very hard long 24hrs and it'd struggle to survive...

Of course if it does stay weak and naked and track W then the game totally changes from what the models expect...

Or the current very weak vortex could give up the ghost over the next day and it could relocate to south near the deep convection.

[pgoss11]

The shift to them dropping the system totally probably

It's funny I was actually thinking the same thing. It's practially just an open wave. I realize the weaker it is, the better the prospects are for it to hold together over the DR, but it really is a pathetic looking tropical storm. It's almost like some sort of hybrid storm.. just plain ugly

[Tireman4]

It looks like a naked swirl...

[KWT]

xironman, quite possible, esp because looking at the loops there is some rotation down close to 15N, whether or not that the MLC with maybe a weak surface reflection I'm not sure but worth watching closely if the current LLC decides to take its convective clothes off.

[northjaxpro]

The Haitian Penninsula has mountains,but not as tall as in the DR,as those are over 10,000 feet.

Yeah, as I said to Aric even a small difference in track will be key.

got to admit its a really poor time for this system to go naked, really needs some sort of convection to burst nearby otherwise its going to face a very hard long 24hrs and it'd struggle to survive...

Of course if it does stay weak and naked and track W then the game totally changes from what the models expect...

Exactly. These next 24 hours are going to tell the tale about Emily in terms of whether or not she survives and if she does, then the impacts to the Bahamas and potentially the SE U.S. Coast.

[tolakram]

Emily might be dead, something is seriously wrong with that presentation, and if the LLC is as weak as recon found then the end could be quick, IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

The CMC actually shows Emily decoupling with the LLC staying on the southern track and what looks like a mid-level center splitting off to the north. Thinking this over, that may happen here. If this is the case, the storm track might be largely moot since it'll stay a very weak system.

[KWT]

Emily heading nearly due west looking at the high resolution loops, and getting eeven more exposed.

A combo of shear and probably some injestion of air from Hispaniola not helping at all...system may well stay west and miss the trough totally if this is right, still needs watching because even if it does weaken down it could end up in a better set-up aloft downstream.

Amazingly the Nogaps track/strength looks good right now...

Ps, MLC has stopped dead in its tracks.