ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Continues to look like the MLC might be taking over as convection builds southward towards it:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[TJRE]

LSU ESL products are updating better than in the past....
for the sat lovers

https://www.esl.lsu.edu

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/

gulf dry air pocket appears to scour out for the most part
Loop
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static/animation ... v_loop.gif

[waterworld]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

This is probably going to degenerate into a trough as the models a few days ago showed, and that indicates that process is beginning--there's essentially little to no convergence going on by the looks of it. I still don't think this will ever get any stronger and there's nothing out there, aside from model speculation, that gives any indication otherwise.

The National Hurricane Center would not have hurricane watches up and be forecasting a strong tropical storm landfall if there weren't indications otherwise. They know what they're doing.

Nine is organizing this evening. The LLC and MLC are as close as they've ever been, pressures are slowly falling, and convection continues to build.

Nice stay down the middle

[psyclone]

My NWS grid shows 7-11" of rain from Wednesday through Thursday night. I got nearly 3" today alone and it's been very wet this week. I must say I'm a little shocked Ruskin did not hoist a flood watch for portions of their CWA with their afternoon package. We are already waterlogged. And right now there is an area of heavy rain in coastal Charlotte and Sarasota counties lifting slowly northward.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Looks like the LLC and the MLC are both under the deep convection now. Be interesting to see what happens with these kids now that they finally get together.

[TJRE]

My NWS grid shows 7-11" of rain from Wednesday through Thursday night. I got nearly 3" today alone and it's been very wet this week. I must say I'm a little shocked Ruskin did not hoist a flood watch for portions of their CWA with their afternoon package. We are already waterlogged. And right now there is an area of heavy rain in coastal Charlotte and Sarasota counties lifting slowly northward.

WPC Day1-3 QPF


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

I know it's been asked before, but what are the track implications from the southern MLC taking over? More west, because the ridge will be building back in, or more east, since the storm will start it's east progression from a more south point (presumably)?

[chaser1]

I think that TD 9 will continue to struggle against this shear, though one has to admit that the convection is bursting very nicely still. I'm guessing it'll find a way to get named by morning given the present persisitance of the convection. Honestly though, either another weakening phase or rapid deepening would'nt surprise me either way. "If" the LLC and MLC were to finally co-align, I could see a 10mb pressure fall commence over a 12 hour period just as well.

[JKingTampa]

Hopefully next ASCAT hits the system.

[tropicwatch]

Hopefully next ASCAT hits the system.

Yea the last one was really disappointing.

[TJRE]

I know it's been asked before, but what are the track implications from the southern MLC taking over? More west, because the ridge will be building back in, or more east, since the storm will start it's east progression from a more south point (presumably)?

EJ

take a look at the OPC 48 hr surface map -prog-
I think that cold front and location of the Atlantic High pressure ,1021mb
makes for a more eastward track bias (IMHO)



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/kcoop160/status/770788671209472000

[cdavis6287]

I know it's been asked before, but what are the track implications from the southern MLC taking over? More west, because the ridge will be building back in, or more east, since the storm will start it's east progression from a more south point (presumably)?

EJ

take a look at the OPC 48 hr surface map -prog-
I think that cold front and location of the Atlantic High pressure ,1021mb
spells out a eastward track bias (IMHO)



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

Based on the above it looks like the track could move back eastward? Lol confusing storm! Guess it will be a waiting game to see official projected path.

[JaxGator]

A new upper high is now above the depression per latest shear analysis.

[sphelps8681]

A new upper high is now above the depression per latest shear analysis.

Is Hermine a woman's name if not that is the name she needs to have because that is what she needs to be. So you know I am a woman.

[ZX12R]

Viewing the last visible sat images of TD9 before going dark, what I see is about 620,000 sq miles of organization, somehow choreographed and setup around a pathetic looking tropical depression in the gulf. The entire gulf of Mexico is spinning around this unruly tropical feature. It says to me that the potential of this system is frightening. If the axle of this feature can become aligned, organized, and stable, well, lets just pray it doesn't. It is quite amazing that a weather phenomenon can organize such a large area of earth's surface, and with frightening possibilities. Scary.

[LCfromFL]

My meeting in CA was cancelled for Thursday - so I'm flying back to Jacksonville tomorrow. I live NE of the JAX airport (Nassau County) so will be able to provide updates on conditions as things change. So I think that we'll have 4 of us in NE FL providing updates.

[hipshot]

I know it's been asked before, but what are the track implications from the southern MLC taking over? More west, because the ridge will be building back in, or more east, since the storm will start it's east progression from a more south point (presumably)?

EJ

take a look at the OPC 48 hr surface map -prog-
I think that cold front and location of the Atlantic High pressure ,1021mb
makes for a more eastward track bias (IMHO)



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

I am sure no meterologist but aren't you giving some of these troughs and ridges (umteen miles away) a lot of
credit for moving these storms around?

[ronjon]

A new upper high is now above the depression per latest shear analysis.

If it can finally get stacked, the upper air conditions are quite good for some RI.

[TJRE]

A new upper high is now above the depression per latest shear analysis.

green means go -FAV-



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=