Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TomballEd]

1995 or 1996, a 99F February day was followed a week later by an ice storm. But that doesn't always happen.

Pretty certain the storm happened first in 96 and DFW got down to 8 and two weeks later we hit 98. La Niña type stuff.

I was a student in Austin then. Hung out outside my apartment a very long walk from campus and enjoyed a couple of beers. I was solidly bummed AUS did hit 100F in February.

IIRC, the ice storm that followed was good for a day of no class.

[Gotwood]

Judah just posted his new blog a bit ago. Seems we are still in wait and see mode. https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

[Brent]

68 degrees here today

I did notice the NWS added a slight chance of snow Wednesday morning however. Just the fact things can appear that soon in time is interesting

[bubba hotep]

68 degrees here today

I did notice the NWS added a slight chance of snow Wednesday morning however. Just the fact things can appear that soon in time is interesting

18z HRRR picking it up.

[Quixotic]

Said it earlier but same. You'll never convince me we don't get another shot

3 weeks ago I wasn't even sure it was going to snow here at all this winter and now we can't get rid of it the walkway here is still icy

I just shoveled the walkway and driveway. Looks like iceberg that sunk the titanic is in my front yard. 10 days is pretty impressive.

Spent all yesterday afternoon busting up a 15" thick mountain that was blocking our garage. Way harder than I thought it was going to be! Kids started out helping, but quickly faded when they realized busting ice in the shade was cold and hard work lol

Dude it’s me or nobody outside. Even when the older boys were here they never volunteered for anything. My youngest is willing but only had one shovel. I tore my calf one year and waited for one of the older ones to say they’d mow the lawn. Well it was four weeks in and the grass was insane and I grabbed both of them and told them to do it. One of them did a decent job which surprised me because he was the one that usually fought me tooth and nail. The other one normally was helpful but absolutely butchered the front yard. He’s super fastidious so I knew it was passive aggression. Told him to try again. Ask your brother for pointers. lol. He lives on his own and pays to have the yard done. I only quit doing the yard because as I’ve aged the heat was killing me.

The youngest had a great question: would a snow blower blow compacted sleet? I say no because I saw none out in Toronto during a sleet storm.

[Quixotic]

1995 or 1996, a 99F February day was followed a week later by an ice storm. But that doesn't always happen.

Pretty certain the storm happened first in 96 and DFW got down to 8 and two weeks later we hit 98. La Niña type stuff.

I was a student in Austin then. Hung out outside my apartment a very long walk from campus and enjoyed a couple of beers. I was solidly bummed AUS did hit 100F in February.

IIRC, the ice storm that followed was good for a day of no class.

So, turns out we were both right. 168 hours below freezing complete with snow and ice 95 in the middle of the month and a trace of snow to end the month. This is DFW mind you. I too was in college but while working and getting my masters.

[Ptarmigan]

1995 or 1996, a 99F February day was followed a week later by an ice storm. But that doesn't always happen.

It was hot in February 1996 after a cold blast. It was cold again in March 1996.

[Stratton23]

watching ensemble trends through this weekend, latest operational runs are starting to show more blocking returning in Alaska right around valentines day, i just find it interesting that my time frame to watch is around that period for changes, and here the operational models come, starting to reflect my thinking lol, though they could go flip back of course, can i make it 2/2 for calling patterns out 2 weeks in advance? I guess we will find out

[txtwister78]

watching ensemble trends through this weekend, latest operational runs are starting to show more blocking returning in Alaska right around valentines day, i just find it interesting that my time frame to watch is around that period for changes, and here the operational models come, starting to reflect my thinking lol, though they could go flip back of course, can i make it 2/2 for calling patterns out 2 weeks in advance? I guess we will find out

Well I'll put it this way....I hope for your sake my friend this time around your call for a mid month flip similar to your call last month doesn't end up getting delayed again because if it does (and I think it will) you're looking at much lower odds unfortunately for it to be a "big ticket" event which at that point it would need to be in order to deliver something fun for state winter weather fans due to climatology especially for both our regions further south.

Give me Spring at that point personally as opposed to cooler/colder weather relative to higher temp averages but with no snow. Unlike last month when I said look out for end of January for "real cold" to hit, I'm not seeing any big signals yet that would lend confidence in that. West will probably get it first but still time to watch for changes.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 we will see for sure, im just making a prediction for the fun of it! I just want one more cold snap, i cant hide my hatred for the warmth lol

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 we will see for sure, im just making a prediction for the fun of it! I just want one more cold snap, i cant hide my hatred for the warmth lol

I hope you get it brother and I completely get your a winter weather fan.

[Brent]

I really just can't believe the turn on the models in the last few days. Like how can they go from showing almost record cold to record warmth almost in one run

I mean I refuse to believe winter is over but like yikes... The end of the GFS has a low in North Dakota of all places it doesn't get any worse than that

There is some people still talking about Valentine's Day but I think they may be referring to severe weather more than anything

We need a shakeup badly

[HockeyTx82]

Some very dense fog from Ponder to Denton this morning. That was a surprise.

[Yukon Cornelius]

“It’s not over until the fat lady sings”. She hasn’t sung yet, but she’s warming those vocal cords up.

[South Texas Storms]

I know it's still early...but I wouldn't be surprised if the IH-10 corridor is done with freezes for the season. While we definitely could see some colder air return by late February...climatology is working against us by that time.

I'm not complaining...ended up working 12 straight days due to the past extended stretch of wild winter weather. This is a nice break!

[Stratton23]

It is a race against time now, but that being said, ensembles are really improving in regards to pacific blocking ( seeing a strong - WPO setting up, with hints of - EPO returning ), we will see, and its far from perfect, but compared to what ensembles where showing a couple days ago, hard to deny their have been some pretty positive trends at the 500 Mb level , not at the surface yet

[BigB0882]

Apologies in advance, my question is about an area out West but there are no threads for that. Please feel free to respond to me via PM and/or delete this post if not allowed:

I am heading out west to go skiing Feb 12-17th at Heavenly in Lake Tahoe. I know they have been in a warm and very dry pattern. What do you think the weather may be for me during that time? Any chance of some snow by then? I see snow chances on some apps but that far out they tend to just be going with seasonal averages. Would appreciate any insight on temps/precip so I can begin planning what to pack and temper my expectations. Of course, I am hoping for plenty of snow!

[TomballEd]

Tornado warning (radar) for WC Liberty County.

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles show pretty extensive cold building over Western Canada in the long range. Obviously, how that is discharged is still to be decided.

[Brent]

The EPS is a little better than yesterday on the snow chart around the 14th here

Maybe it's not completely dead yet. On life support perhaps