ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Macrocane]

Do you remember this thread? Development on SW Caribbean? We were very skeptical about it, El Niño year, climatology other false alarms were the arguments that we gave and it ended to be true, that's why we never have to say never. So far the numbers of this season are 11,9,3,2 will it be 11,9,3,3 I don't think so but never say never

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Thunder44]

Based on this image, it looks like the center has made landfall. On the latest infrared, it looks convection is weakening around the center, which is another sign of landfall. So it may be downgraded in the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the hurricane maps at Unisys, Ida is the first hurricane in recorded history to make landfall in Nicaragua in the month of November. Pretty impressive.

[boca]

I'm surprised that the models and the NHC at day five looking at that 200mb flow map you posted above.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you look at the latest set of models (models thread), you can see some are already showing the distinct NE/ENE turn at the end. Expect more to follow with perhaps a sharper turn over the next few days. Could very well be a Florida system this time with even some East movement at the end before it is all through.

Can you please post a link to those latest models. Very intrigued over here.

Here's the link.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_11.gif

[HURAKAN]

Latest. It looks inland

[HURAKAN]

Based on the latest microwave and visible images, Ida is inland over Nicaragua which means that RECON is cancelled until possible reemergence over the WCAR.

[ronjon]

Gatorcane, what that 200 mb map shows me is a large upper level high over the NW caribbean - probably why the GFDL intensity really explodes. Shear looks close to zero south of 25 deg N.

[HURAKAN]

No question it was a hurricane at landfall

[wzrgirl1]

If you look at the latest set of models (models thread), you can see some are already showing the distinct NE/ENE turn at the end. Expect more to follow with perhaps a sharper turn over the next few days. Could very well be a Florida system this time with even some East movement at the end before it is all through.[/quote]

Can you please post a link to those latest models. Very intrigued over here.[/quote]

Here's the link.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_11.gif[/quote]

Thank you. Seeing a slight curve at the end of that run. Wilmaesque? Yikes!

[ozonepete]

No question it was a hurricane at landfall

Yeah. Great banding and eye on that image.

[KWT]

Yep certainly looks to be over land, the key now is whether it stays aware from the high mountions a little to the west.

Looks great though, I wouldn't be surprised if it was actually a touch stronger then we think, maybe around 80mph on landfall itself.

[boca]

How many of you think this will survive the trek across Nicarugua and Honduras given the very slow forward speed?

[KWT]

Depends how close to the shore it stays I think Boca, its very close to the shore and its probably got a good moisture injection on its eastern side, however it is still a fairly tight system so that goes against it.

I think it probably will survive as long as it doesn't get much further west then it is now, probably emerging as a TD barring some freaky Fay-like thing occuring!

[wyq614]

I wonder how much impact it will cause to Cuba? According to my mates there, Cuban economy is showing signs of crisis. I hope that the island will miss the strike of cyclones this year.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Even if it doesn't survive as a hurricane or TS, it may very well spin back up if just a TD emerges into the warm waters of the NW Caribbean.

What concerns me is the approaching front. Better for FL if it goes painfully slow. Then it will either be scooted to the ENE and miss FL altogether once it emerges (sorry Cuba), or else the front will miss the connection altogether and it will then go N or NW (sorry north central GOM). However, I fear that it will get moving a little and be affected by the front.

According to HPC site, which is a good indication of where the fronts will be in CONUS, this looks like it may very well be a Florida storm, but hopefully a much weakened version. See this link, and then you can advance a day or go back a day:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_pre.html

[Weatherboy1]

I would be surprised to see such a far west path -- and/or intensity forecast -- verify this time of year. Remember the models for Irene and how they kept her heading N in the EGOMEX, only to have her eventually head NNE and eject across Florida into the Atlantic? That was in October. We are now in early November. The history of November storms is that they A) Hook to the N and NE and B) that they get sheared apart once they cross 20-ish N.

[HURAKAN]

Great loop

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So this may impact us here on west coast FL next Wed-Thur. ugh.
If it does, hopefully not until Fri, since I have no more paid days off left this year! -or hopefully it is just a very weak storm and just a big rainy breezy event and nothing more.

[boca]

When you look at that loop that Hurrakan posted above it looks like its moving west of due north now.