ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Deputy Van Halen]

Some comparisons to Frances98 and Allison01 in this thread. What about Alicia? Didn't she get started in kinda this same way? Is RI possible or is shear too high for that?

[PTrackerLA]

I haven't seen this much convection in the Gulf if I don't know how long. Should start seeing some rain today and we need it as we are parched. Might not need the major hurricane on top of us next week though .

[Rockin4NOLA]

Sorry but this really looks like a child got a hold of the data/mouse and drew all over it lol

Sorry, just me trying to understand here, but if that setup highlights a possible loop in the Gulf then why do mots of the BAMs go straight west? Or at this point can we start focusing on the other models...sorry....just trying to educate myself given where I live lol.

[PTrackerLA]

That run of the Euro is depressing, I could use some rain(not like Texas)but nothing close to that intensity. I'll be glad to give this one to Teaxas or anyone else after it drops a few inches over here.
What is that like, a week of intensifing S/E winds and lots of rain then to top it off after we are all soggy major hurricane force winds to knock all the tress down. Thank goodness this is just one run and seems a little unreasonable, no one could handle that but especially us.

That Euro would be a huge disaster for Louisiana, epic inland flooding, coastal flooding and then high wind damage. All I can say for sure right now is I think there's ALOT of rain coming for us. We're still in a severe drought so should be able to take the first 4 or 5 inches pretty easily but some of these 20-25" totals the models are spitting out .

[pwrdog]

If the sheer dies, this is could be a Large Storm... Not saying it will ever become intense..... But large seems very possible..

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

copy of latest frame

[Hogweed]

Sorry but this really looks like a child got a hold of the data/mouse and drew all over it lol

"If anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product."

[Stormcenter]

Does not look very organized at all.
A rainmaker and hopefully nothing more.

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

copy of latest frame
http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1274/70515501.jpg

edited by tolakram: removed image in quotes

[underthwx]

NWS Brownsville 8:30a.m. discussion(excerpt from long-range):



THE SUITE OF MODELS FROM 06 UTC COURTESY OF FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUGGESTS AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE ANYWHERE BETWEEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH THE STRETCH OF COASTLINE BETWEEN THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AS THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF BEING AFFECTED. CURRENTLY IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS INDICATED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A POSSIBLE ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM
USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
PRECIPITATION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF THE SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN SUCCESSIVE FORECASTS FOR THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE
PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.


i thought rain chances werent all that high for that region...im confused again....



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[pwrdog]

That run of the Euro is depressing, I could use some rain(not like Texas)but nothing close to that intensity. I'll be glad to give this one to Teaxas or anyone else after it drops a few inches over here.
What is that like, a week of intensifing S/E winds and lots of rain then to top it off after we are all soggy major hurricane force winds to knock all the tress down. Thank goodness this is just one run and seems a little unreasonable, no one could handle that but especially us.

That Euro would be a huge disaster for Louisiana, epic inland flooding, coastal flooding and then high wind damage. All I can say for sure right now is I think there's ALOT of rain coming for us. We're still in a severe drought so should be able to take the first 4 or 5 inches pretty easily but some of these 20-25" totals the models are spitting out .

Also that Euro Model Run would really increase the fire potential in bone dry Texas for those that do not get a rain band or two.

No rain with days of dry gusty winds scare me to death, Worst thing that could happen.

The Euro Model Run is scary, Let's throw that Model Run out of any real possible outcome.

[N2FSU]

Just looked at the Euro, gets picked up NE now. I'm getting a feeling this thing loops in the western Gulf then gets picked up NE. If this stays off shore, it could be a big problem for the Gulf coast.

How far NE Ivan? Near our neck of the woods, or more towards NO or Mobile? What kind of timeframe is it showing for landfall?

Loops around in the Western Gulf then gets picked up NE toward New Orleans, then into Alabama by next Friday,.

Thanks

[tolakram]

We need to try and keep discussion in the discussion thread and restrict this thread to just model runs and discussion directly related to those runs. Thanks.

[Macrocane]

IMO we can't ignore ALL the global models and they make this a deep system, we can't judge the future of the system just for what it looks like right now. Like I said last night the models could be wrong but that would be one of the biggest fails in the history of the globals (Im talking intensity wise).

[TexWx]

Some comparisons to Frances98 and Allison01 in this thread. What about Alicia? Didn't she get started in kinda this same way? Is RI possible or is shear too high for that?

I think Alicia may have started off in the same area of the gulf, from a front that came down and got pinched off...

[Stormcenter]

Still lots of dry air to the north and shear so maybe that's why.

IMO we can't ignore ALL the global models and they make this a deep system, we can't judge the future of the system just for what it looks like right now. Like I said last night the models could be wrong but that would be one of the biggest fails in the history of the globals (Im talking intensity wise).

[jasons2k]

Does not look very organized at all.
A rainmaker and hopefully nothing more.

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

copy of latest frame
http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1274/70515501.jpg

edited by tolakram: removed image in quotes

Give it time. As Wxman just pointed out, it is just now moving into an area of lower shear and will decrease throughout the day.

[PTrackerLA]

It may not be highly organized now but it's a marked improvement from last night. You can easily see low level banding setting up right now.

[Rockin4NOLA]

Anyone got one of those gulf weather temp maps? Would be interesting to see an overlay of the model runs on that...

[vbhoutex]

Some comparisons to Frances98 and Allison01 in this thread. What about Alicia? Didn't she get started in kinda this same way? Is RI possible or is shear too high for that?

I think Alicia may have started off in the same area of the gulf, from a front that came down and got pinched off...

You are pretty much correct about Alicia, but she was further North. Another Hurricane I won't forget.
And yes, with the conditions, except for the shear, in the GOM being like they are, it is possible that once the shear lets up that 93L could ramp up quickly. RI? Not sure if it would meet RI parameters, but EVERYONE on the N GOM needs to monitor this closely since some of the models(CMC last night) show a very deep TC affecting the N GOM eventually. With the steering currents being as weak as they are it is anyone's guess where and when 93L will landfall and at what intensity. Now is the time to be sure all your essential hurricane preps are done.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Turtle]

Here's the HPC 5 day total rain prediction. It never gave me more than .10" in the past week. Hopefully it'll inch closer to Texas!