Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

12Z Euro has about 2 feet of snow in the TX Panhandle this weekend. Going to be quite a storm. No snow for the D-FW area on the 12z Euro. The one chance for snow there may be when the upper low passes by on Monday morning. Moisture may be limited, though.

Assuming ULL path is correct 5+ days out!

There is a large amount of cold air in NW Canada after that on the Euro with a semi good pattern to deliver

[srainhoutx]

Looks like one heck of a blizzard across portions of New Mexico, W Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, if the Euro track verifies.

[starsfan65]

You can't predict winter weather over 5 days in advance. My prediction the low pressure system will be south of DFW on Sunday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like it is getting closer to another Panhandle hooker storm, except maybe a tad bit further south than your typical storm. Still ready for this pattern change. It will come.

[wxman57]

You can't predict winter weather over 5 days in advance. My prediction the low pressure system will be south of DFW on Sunday.

Two contradictory statements.

Models are zeroing-in on a track, but a perfect forecast from 5 days out isn't likely.

By the way, welcome to the forum, starsfan65. Where are you located?

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like it is getting closer to another Panhandle hooker storm, except maybe a tad bit further south than your typical storm. Still ready for this pattern change. It will come.

Someone correct me if if I am missing something, but most standard hookers' parent upper lows don't dig all the way into N Mexico. Ones that far south typically stay south, but this year's SE ridge is very strong causing them to head NE. The Euro brings below 0 850s all the way into western E TX as it has a slightly weaker SE ridge while the GFS and GEM have the SE ridge very strong causing the low to shoot NE with N TX.

[hriverajr]

Other than the models saying there will be a fairly deep 500 mb low, they are not in agreement. Just look at the upper air features between the 12z and 6z on the GFS.

[starsfan65]

I am from Garland, 10 Miles NE of Dallas.

[TexasStorm]

I know this is a El Nino year and things SHOULD be different... But a few years back, cannot remember which winter it was, didn't we have a pattern where the panhandle kept getting hammered with winter storms but we never got anything here? How were JFM that year for North Texas?

[Ralph's Weather]

Other than the models saying there will be a fairly deep 500 mb low, they are not in agreement. Just look at the upper air features between the 12z and 6z on the GFS.

Agreed, the Euro is almost 500 miles south of the GFS Monday morning. Before and after that the differences are not huge. The issue is that Monday morning looks to be the critical time for potential N TX snow. Hopefully there is better consensus before Christmas so post-Christmas travelers can plan ahead.

[Ntxw]

These type of storms are not embedded in fast flow. Small changes in upstream features can drastically change their path it is a system in a split flow regime.

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS has the 500mb low near the OK/KS border at 12Z Monday. The 12Z Euro has the low center just north of Abilene and just about due south of the GFS center. Obviously, the Euro's position would mean more snow for the Panhandle and the chance of snow in D-FW. I'd go with the Euro at this time. GFS has been all over the place run-to-run.

[TheProfessor]

I know this is a El Nino year and things SHOULD be different... But a few years back, cannot remember which winter it was, didn't we have a pattern where the panhandle kept getting hammered with winter storms but we never got anything here? How were JFM that year for North Texas?

That was 2011-2012 I believe, that was not a fun winter at all here in DFW, but I remember San Angelo having multiple snow storms.

[opticsguy]

6" of rain for DFW is not good. The Army COE is trying to lower the level of Lake Lewisville to try to repair the dam.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS has the 500mb low near the OK/KS border at 12Z Monday. The 12Z Euro has the low center just north of Abilene and just about due south of the GFS center. Obviously, the Euro's position would mean more snow for the Panhandle and the chance of snow in D-FW. I'd go with the Euro at this time. GFS has been all over the place run-to-run.

I tend to side with the Euro as it has been more stable run to run. I also cannot recall a closed upper low digging into Mexico then gaining latitude like the GFS and even GEM show.

[starsfan65]

I will side with Euro as well.

[Brent]

FWD's AFD about the timeframe:

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
REGARDING THE EXACT SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
AGREEMENT IN THAT A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AND DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LONE STAR STATE BUT QUICKLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS A RETURN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF COLD RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS STILL MORE THAN 5 DAYS OUT SO
DETAILS WILL BE CHANGING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT RAINMAKER AT THIS TIME AND WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES...AND ADD TO OUR ALREADY RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL TOTALS GOING
INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2015.

[starsfan65]

I think the forecast discussion is siding with the GFS model.

[wxman57]

Do all U.S. weather offices have access to the full-resolution ECMWF data? Or do they just subscribe to a web service like WxBell? I can't see any reason to trust the GFS over the Euro in this case.

[Brent]

Not to get ahead of ourselves... but TWC's app has rain/snow for New Years Eve night.

Temps much more average to end December and start January