ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Given my untraine eyes, looks like some fresh convection is increasing in the NE side of TS Erika. Feeder band attempt? not sure but a slight better appareance is maybe trying too occuring. Let's wait and see.
Noticed the nice cluster of tstorms ahead of Erika moving towards Barbados.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Bocadude85]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

[sunnyday]

Does anyone else feel that this storm is going to go poof before it ever gets anywhere near the Bahamas? It looks terrible!
One more thing==I've noticed that whoever is in the cone a week or so out generally is not in the cone at the end of the storm, so shouldn't people in S Fl take notice of that?
Thank you for your ideas.

These statements are my opinion only. See the NHC or NWS for professional information.

[deltadog03]

New video update on my thoughts of Erika. Check it out if you want. Thanks!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

Usually they slow it down so that it never hits land in the forecast. My money is on a slow down at 11pm tonight with center point of 5 day position slightly north of current forecast.

[toad strangler]

Andrew, Floyd, and Fredric are current analogs for Erika... Each covers the possible tracks... Fred over the big islands weak and emerges into EGOM... Floyd, makes last second turn to miss SFL and into NC... Andrew, well let's just hope that doesn't happen...

Well for one, Andrew is NOT a good analog IMO …. Andrew was MUCH further north of the Leeward islands and IMMENSELY further north of PR / Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Here is an RGB floater saved loop. If you follow the low-level clouds (the spiral on the NW side of the convection), I see a WNW movement now. There is also a good amount of convection now on the NE side that may start to wrap. It's not the prettiest tropical storm but very much alive:

[jlauderdal]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

They will do the math and if the angle and speed of the forecast hits land then so be it...they aren't in the biz of adjusting what they think to calm or hype people..based on their 5 day track error whoever is in line for a direct hit at 5 days is in decent shape based on stats, its not my opinion or forecast just the nhc track error they put out..if you are looking at a direct hit inside three days you better get gas, water, cash and everything else because they are really good at that range

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[TheStormExpert]

Here is an RGB floater saved loop. If you follow the low-level clouds (the spiral on the NW side of the convection), I see a WNW movement now. There is also a good amount of convection now on the NE side that may start to wrap. It's not the prettiest tropical storm but very much alive:

http://i.imgur.com/r24qGM8.gif

Hey at least it's better looking than Danny was on it's final hours as a hurricane.

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

They will do the math and if the angle and speed of the forecast hits land then so be it...they aren't in the biz of adjusting what they think to calm or hype people..based on their 5 day track error whoever is in line for a direct hit at 5 days is in decent shape based on stats, its not my opinion or forecast just the nhc track error they put out..if you are looking at a direct hit inside three days you better get gas, water, cash and everything else because they are really good at that range

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

I have video footage on a NOVA movie from 1993 with interviews with NOAA personnel including the beloved Dr Bob Sheets. They flat out admit they can't forecast exactly what they think will happen. They have to temper it with concerns like impact on watch warning etc and specifically with the implications of their forecast on evacuations etc. It's a great movie. A little old. But I bet nothing has changed.

[BucMan2]

After looking at the latest shear Chart it looks like Erika is going through some lighter shear which may let it ignite a little bit before going back into 20 knots of shear

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's Post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/25/tr ... s-impacts/

[SFLcane]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

No change in NHC track....00z modes with recon data likely in them still clustered near S.FL so that's discouraging.

[Rail Dawg]

Having worked with NHC for many years, the forecasts do have to be tempered. They are a government agency and because of that, politics do enter into the equation.

It's not talked about much and I won't say anymore but there are many factors that go into an NHC forecast.

[wxman57]

If you follow the low-level swirl, it appears that the center is well NW of the convection. Definitely appears to be moving WNW. I see nothing to indicate a track shift by the NHC at 03Z. However, I still question the forecast of steady strengthening over the next 48hrs.

[wxman57]

I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...

how confident are you in a track near South Florida if I may ask?

I think that's a very good bet (S. FL). Great model agreement on that part. Not that the center is going to hit south FL, but I think there's a good chance the center will pass within 100 miles of south Florida. What's difficult to determine, as I sort of joke above, is whether it's a remnant low then or a hurricane.

[tgenius]

I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...

how confident are you in a track near South Florida if I may ask?

I think that's a very good bet (S. FL). Great model agreement on that part. Not that the center is going to hit south FL, but I think there's a good chance the center will pass within 100 miles of south Florida. What's difficult to determine, as I sort of joke above, is whether it's a remnant low then or a hurricane.

wxman I very much appreciate your insight into this. Based on what it appears would it be a sunday evening or monday morning for the timeframe (which of course can change with forward speed being reduced of course)

[stormhunter7]

TS Erika is about to expose the center soon. What i noticed is the large surface winds expanding to the NW to NE of the center. *It can be seen on Shortwave night IR imagery*

[Hammy]

If you follow the low-level swirl, it appears that the center is well NW of the convection. Definitely appears to be moving WNW. I see nothing to indicate a track shift by the NHC at 03Z. However, I still question the forecast of steady strengthening over the next 48hrs.

Would any intensification then be most likely to occur after it passes 60-65W?

[blp]

I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...

how confident are you in a track near South Florida if I may ask?

I think that's a very good bet (S. FL). Great model agreement on that part. Not that the center is going to hit south FL, but I think there's a good chance the center will pass within 100 miles of south Florida. What's difficult to determine, as I sort of joke above, is whether it's a remnant low then or a hurricane.

Thanks I really value your opinion.