Texas Spring 2017

[JDawg512]

Looks like we have more opportunities over the coming week for widespread rain (instead of a tench of an inch here and 9 inches a mile away) assuming the models are correct.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 111928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a trough extending from the
central plains through Texas to northern Mexico and a ridge to the
west. At the surface, a cold front was stretched from Georgetown to
Pandale. The cold front will stall and dissipate across our CWA and
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight and Wednesday. Rain chances will retreat to the west
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A combination of moist low level flow and a series of upper level
disturbances will keep slight chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast each day through Friday. A more intense upper level trough
will swing through the central plains Saturday bringing a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Another upper
level trough will bring a chance for thunderstorms Monday.

I sure hope so at least for my garden's sake. Didn't even get half an inch. I'm thoroughly disappointed. If only we could get more rain over areas that didn't see much this time while leaving the flooded areas to dry out a bit.

[aggiecutter]

[South Texas Storms]

Better late than never for SA! My family picked up about 1.3 inches this afternoon. That helps make up for the bust last night.

[weatherdude1108]

Better late than never for SA! My family picked up about 1.3 inches this afternoon. That helps make up for the bust last night.

Yeah, I'm in SA at my parents' house for the night. They picked up a quarter inch yesterday, and 1.5 inches this afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

I'm already on the Hype Train for next winter!

[Brent]

I'm already on the Hype Train for next winter!

it has to be better, right?

[TheProfessor]

I'm already on the Hype Train for next winter!

it has to be better, right?

Please don't jinx it, next winter might be my last chance to see a real Ohio winter.

[Ntxw]

Almost mid April and DFW is running 5.1F above normal at 68.2F. The streak of above normal at the airport will likely continue. Since January top 5 warmest months have been a regular occurrence and this month too has a possible to probable likelihood of keeping that streak alive. Feels like a broken record with warmth. With March and now April much above normal, unless May is record cold then Spring 2017 will likely end up as another above normal season. For the past 11 months if you predicted warmer than normal across the board (month and season) you would've been money. Relatively easy forecast going by natural trends.

Rainfall is a healthy 2.87" for the month of April well above normal to date and pretty close to the monthly average. To date (year) is also doing well at 10.65" which is 1.39" above normal.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Rain chances dropping daily. What was 50% chances are now 20 and 10%. Our topsoil is getting very dry. We need some rain!

[Tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 130955
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered cirrus traveling across from the west...thick enough to
keep the majority of the forecast area from experiencing near
sunrise dense fog formation. A short fuse Dense Fog Advisory may
be needed for the eastern CWA or near coastal locations as local
visibilities have recently fallen to under a mile. No small nor
large scale surface boundaries...with upper ridging planted just
to our east (ridge axis is centered across Appalachia) and the
bulk of the lower to middle layer moisture positioned over southern
Texas...all suggest that today will be dry. There are slight
western county afternoon convective chances in relation to being
in the proximity of the eastern reaches of an early day west Texas
upper trough/shortwave disturbance passage. There is a remote
possibility that outflow from the QLCS that is pushing east across
SJT (or EWX`s) CWA this morning will be entering our warmed...moist
and unstable (west-southwestern county) afternoon environment. If
so...the day may end with scattered convection flaring up over the
Brazos River Valley and points south and west. A typical spring-
like day can be expected...southeast breezes and partially cloudy
skies as temperatures warm into the lower 80s by Noon.

Very little change in the synoptic pattern through Saturday...
generally lowering heights over the Great Basin will prime next
week`s weather. Very low Friday and Saturday PoPs to account for a
short-lived shower or an isolated storm that develops along the
local breezes...daily middle 60 minTs with daily lower to middle
80 maxTs as moisture/humidity levels remain bearable. The pattern
does begin to undergo some subtle change beginning Easter Sunday.
Shallow upper troughing across the Rockies may allow a shortwave
disturbance (or two) to pass across eastern Texas Sunday and Monday.
Heightened moisture levels pooling up within a persistent (PM)
conditionally unstable inland environment...will create a primed
early week set-up for the increased probability of enhanced shower
and storm activity. Global models are pegging Easter Sunday and
Monday as the days we are most likely to experience precipitation.
31

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent southeasterly winds 10-15kts & 3-5 ft seas should persist
for the next several days with a ridge of high pressure remaining
over the SE US. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs & fog should begin lifting during the mid & late
morning hours as some drier llvl air makes its way into the region
from the se. VFR for the remainder of the day with just some cirrus
debris from w/n Tx precip streaming overhead. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 62 82 62 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 82 63 82 65 82 / 10 10 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 70 78 69 78 / 10 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[lrak]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Can you imagine what we would say about this in August

[weatherdude1108]

I thought it looked like an MCV was forming northeast of Del Rio. Could create outflows for later. Also, embedded high winds within the light rain in the San Angelo area moving towards the Hill Country. I've seen this type of thing before. Bizarre.

Gotta love the weather!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 131423 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
923 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Area radar data continues to show an area of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains this morning. An MCV has formed and this has helped
maintain convection. We do see some slow warming of cloud tops, which
argues for decreased activity. However, we are seeing some new
development ahead of the MCV and have opted to increase rain chances
for areas mainly west of Highway 83 through mid-morning. We will need
to keep an eye on any outflow boundaries produced by this convective
complex as this could provide a focus for afternoon convection
farther east across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1051 AM CDT THU APR 13 2017

TXZ076>078-169-131715-
Schleicher TX-Kimble TX-Crockett TX-Sutton TX-
1051 AM CDT THU APR 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIMBLE...EASTERN CROCKETT AND
SUTTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1045 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong winds
of 40 mph with occasional gusts up to 55 mph...from Eastern
Crockett county eastward across Sutton Country. This includes Ozona
and Sonora. The winds were associated with light showers that were
spreading eastward around 25 mph.

High profile vehicles, including campers, should look out for the
strong winds along I-10 near Ozona and Sonora.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1012 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

...High Wind Warning for Tom Green...schleicher...concho and
Menard Counties until 1 pm...

.A large area of rain with embedded high winds will move eastward
this morning across the southern Concho Valley and Hill Country.
Strong winds are occasionally mixing down to the ground, with
occasional 60 to 65 mph wind gusts possible for the next few
hours.

TXZ072-073-077-168-131800-
/O.NEW.KSJT.HW.W.0002.170413T1512Z-170413T1800Z/
Tom Green-Concho-Schleicher-Menard-
Including the cities of SAN ANGELO, EDEN, ELDORADO, and MENARD
1012 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 1 PM CDT this afternoon.

* TIMING...Through 1 pm.

* WINDS...Winds of 40 mph with occasional wind gusts of 60 to 65
mph.

* IMPACTS...Loose objects outside will be blown around. Tree
branches may break and fall to the ground. High profile vehicles
may be hard to control on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

[weatherdude1108]

Rain chances dropping daily. What was 50% chances are now 20 and 10%. Our topsoil is getting very dry. We need some rain!

It looks like you're getting some showers today, based on the radar(?). Hope that top soil moisture recovers soon.

[Ralph's Weather]

Very heavy rains last night and this morning in East and NE Texas, NW Louisiana, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas. Some places received up to 8" of rain. I received a little over 2" at my house.

And a hole over my house in NW Smith County, I received less than .5".

[Quixotic]

Got hail three times already this spring with the last two being 2.75". Will we get four tonight? I hope not. Tired of car juggling. My pickup is starting to look a bit jackhammered.

[weatherdude1108]

Got hail three times already this spring with the last two being 2.75". Will we get four tonight? I hope not. Tired of car juggling. My pickup is starting to look a bit jackhammered.

What's your location?

[bubba hotep]

Got hail three times already this spring with the last two being 2.75". Will we get four tonight? I hope not. Tired of car juggling. My pickup is starting to look a bit jackhammered.

My car got it twice last year, it looks like a golf ball...

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies continue to beat the flood drum beat. The control run would wash N. Texas, OK and AR down the Red River and out into the Gulf!

[bubba hotep]

The remnant MCV from earlier today seems to be refiring storms pretty nicely tonight as it moves NE towards DFW. Will that trend continue?

[Quixotic]

Got hail three times already this spring with the last two being 2.75". Will we get four tonight? I hope not. Tired of car juggling. My pickup is starting to look a bit jackhammered.

My car got it twice last year, it looks like a golf ball...

Ha! Mine isn't quite that but it's obvious. I claimed in 2014 but never got it repaired because of procrastination. Now we have three cars and since mines already banged up, it's the default outside car.

What's your location?

North Frisco. Nothing between me and Oklahoma but barbed wire fences.