ATL: IRMA - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#581 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:25 am

Siker wrote:UKMET further south and stronger: TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 0 16.5N 29.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 31.08.2017 12 16.5N 31.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2017 24 17.2N 33.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 01.09.2017 36 17.6N 35.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 01.09.2017 48 18.5N 36.8W 1006 33
0000UTC 02.09.2017 60 19.2N 39.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 02.09.2017 72 19.4N 42.0W 1004 38
0000UTC 03.09.2017 84 19.1N 44.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.09.2017 96 18.3N 47.1W 996 42
0000UTC 04.09.2017 108 17.5N 49.2W 989 57
1200UTC 04.09.2017 120 17.2N 51.1W 984 64
0000UTC 05.09.2017 132 17.4N 53.6W 977 65
1200UTC 05.09.2017 144 17.5N 56.4W 970 68

Much stronger! :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#582 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:26 am

sma10 wrote:Also note the strengthening Tropical Storm heading north towards the Texas coast.


Heaven forbid!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#583 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:26 am

Large Door WIde Open - Not sure how it can even get close to East Coast with this...

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#584 Postby HurricaneEric » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:27 am

Siker wrote:UKMET further south and stronger: TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 0 16.5N 29.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 31.08.2017 12 16.5N 31.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2017 24 17.2N 33.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 01.09.2017 36 17.6N 35.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 01.09.2017 48 18.5N 36.8W 1006 33
0000UTC 02.09.2017 60 19.2N 39.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 02.09.2017 72 19.4N 42.0W 1004 38
0000UTC 03.09.2017 84 19.1N 44.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.09.2017 96 18.3N 47.1W 996 42
0000UTC 04.09.2017 108 17.5N 49.2W 989 57
1200UTC 04.09.2017 120 17.2N 51.1W 984 64
0000UTC 05.09.2017 132 17.4N 53.6W 977 65
1200UTC 05.09.2017 144 17.5N 56.4W 970 68


So UKMet more in line with the Euro solution? Both seem to be stronger and more south than the GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#585 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:30 am

Big trough, but big ridge as well

If that trough lifts and retrogrades the ridge will push back west.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#586 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:31 am

HurricaneEric wrote:
Siker wrote:UKMET further south and stronger: TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 0 16.5N 29.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 31.08.2017 12 16.5N 31.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2017 24 17.2N 33.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 01.09.2017 36 17.6N 35.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 01.09.2017 48 18.5N 36.8W 1006 33
0000UTC 02.09.2017 60 19.2N 39.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 02.09.2017 72 19.4N 42.0W 1004 38
0000UTC 03.09.2017 84 19.1N 44.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.09.2017 96 18.3N 47.1W 996 42
0000UTC 04.09.2017 108 17.5N 49.2W 989 57
1200UTC 04.09.2017 120 17.2N 51.1W 984 64
0000UTC 05.09.2017 132 17.4N 53.6W 977 65
1200UTC 05.09.2017 144 17.5N 56.4W 970 68


So UKMet more in line with the Euro solution? Both seem to be stronger and more south than the GFS.


Uk/Euro are very much in line (pending Euro's output today, of course). They are also a bit quicker as well, not quite feeling the northward tug as much as the GFS. Essentially, that is the difference at this point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#587 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:31 am

CMC is slower and further south than GFS

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#588 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:33 am

Moving NW see ya....lets see what the rest of 12z suite does. Bets EURO recurves
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#589 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:34 am

GFS Ensembles should be interesting..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#590 Postby boca » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:36 am

With that big trough in the east US Irma should stay away from the US
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#591 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:36 am

Ah jeez thats not a solution I want to see on the GFS...

The only way we avoid a landfall IMO on the east coast is IF a tropical cyclone develops in the gulf and that will only end badly as well.

Probably out to sea on the 12z GFS BUT thats is highly dependent on that hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico and thats obviously highly uncertain at this early juncture.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#592 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:36 am

You know, you've gotta laugh. Who knows - perhaps GFS is spot on. But come on - look at its setup flip flop: at 204 hours shows driving trough into Florida panhandle. Just 6 hrs ago, the 6Z at the exact same time period showed a ridge building over Florida and the trough completely lifting out of New England. Like I say - maybe the GFS ends up completely correct, but it would be by accident. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#593 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:38 am

sma10 wrote:You know, you've gotta laugh. Who knows - perhaps GFS is spot on. But come on - look at its setup flip flop: at 204 hours shows driving trough into Florida panhandle. Just 6 hrs ago, the 6Z at the exact same time period showed a ridge building over Florida and the trough completely lifting out of New England. Like I say - maybe the GFS ends up completely correct, but it would be by accident. :)

It hasn't exactly been stout with the upper environment since the upgrade either.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#594 Postby Langinbang187 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:38 am

boca wrote:With that big trough in the east US Irma should stay away from the US


Yep. GFS looks fishy.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#595 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:39 am

sma10 wrote:You know, you've gotta laugh. Who knows - perhaps GFS is spot on. But come on - look at its setup flip flop: at 204 hours shows driving trough into Florida panhandle. Just 6 hrs ago, the 6Z at the exact same time period showed a ridge building over Florida and the trough completely lifting out of New England. Like I say - maybe the GFS ends up completely correct, but it would be by accident. :)


The only way that trough digs that far into Florida is due to the tropical spin up in the GOM. If that doesn't happen (for Texas and Louisiana's sake pray to God it doesn't) then there will be more ridging.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#596 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:40 am

Well, in other news, a 904mb cat 5 is headed for Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#597 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:40 am

HurricaneEric wrote:
Siker wrote:UKMET further south and stronger: TROPICAL STORM IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2017 0 16.5N 29.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 31.08.2017 12 16.5N 31.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2017 24 17.2N 33.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 01.09.2017 36 17.6N 35.1W 1006 30
1200UTC 01.09.2017 48 18.5N 36.8W 1006 33
0000UTC 02.09.2017 60 19.2N 39.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 02.09.2017 72 19.4N 42.0W 1004 38
0000UTC 03.09.2017 84 19.1N 44.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 03.09.2017 96 18.3N 47.1W 996 42
0000UTC 04.09.2017 108 17.5N 49.2W 989 57
1200UTC 04.09.2017 120 17.2N 51.1W 984 64
0000UTC 05.09.2017 132 17.4N 53.6W 977 65
1200UTC 05.09.2017 144 17.5N 56.4W 970 68


So UKMet more in line with the Euro solution? Both seem to be stronger and more south than the GFS.


To be fair its not that different from the 12z GFS, the main difference is itsa little faster in its forward motion than the GFS on this run.

There is little leeway for a recurve situation here if a TC doesn't form as it helps to keep the weakness open long enough. If it does, I'd say its nearly locked on for a recurve somewhere between 70-75W.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#598 Postby meriland29 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:40 am

Anyone have the 12z animation? On my phone and can't check tbits on here.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#599 Postby blp » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:40 am

GFS Upper pattern is different again. I see more a squeeze on the High. Look at the low over the Azores.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#600 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:40 am

Just here to remind you that y'all are now speculating at 200+ hour model forecasts. It's not like those have ever been wrong before.... Oh wait. :lol:

The models can and will change between now and then. No need to get worried about anything yet.
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