ATL: MARIA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

[toad strangler]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

NHC does not mention any E component

[AxaltaRacing24]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

NHC does not mention any E component

It hasn't been extremely obvious throughout the day but if you look at a loop, it has clearly at least been moving NNNE.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

NHC does not mention any E component

look at recon..

[hurricaneCW]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

I don't see that and models have trended on Jose sticking around, he's not going anywhere with that growing block to the north later on.

[Ian2401]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

NHC does not mention any E component

https://imgur.com/a/7Trci

There definitely was an easterly component when the Hurricane Hunters went in, you can see that through the two passes they made in the center. It's also pretty distinguishable on satellite.

[sma10]

Looking at recon data from JOSE and current structure it appears transition is already occuring and the defined center is falling part.. models should be changing over the next few runs.

Trying to understand the implications if the models interpret Jose as transitioning to extratropical rather than remaining warm core. How does that change the "end game" vis a vis Maria?

[toad strangler]

Looking at recon data from JOSE and current structure it appears transition is already occuring and the defined center is falling part.. models should be changing over the next few runs.

Trying to understand the implications if the models interpret Jose as transitioning to extratropical rather than remaining warm core. How does that change the "end game" vis a vis Maria?

Not much if Jose is indeed there leaving breadcrumbs.

[Aric Dunn]

Also the nne motion has continued all day.. it may very well lift out ..

I don't see that and models have trended on Jose sticking around, he's not going anywhere with that growing block to the north later on.

nne

[Aric Dunn]

you also only need to look at the loop with the over lay on .. saying its been moving north is a stretch ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Alyono]

GFS magically keeps this east of Puerto Rico. Makes too much of a NW turn tomorrow

Didn't we just see this with Irma? It at one point about 24 hours before landfall insisted that Barbuda would have low end TS winds at most with the other islands getting nothing

[Aric Dunn]

GFS magically keeps this east of Puerto Rico. Makes too much of a NW turn tomorrow

Didn't we just see this with Irma? It at one point about 24 hours before landfall insisted that Barbuda would have low end TS winds at most with the other islands getting nothing

yes we did..... however it is all becasue of JOSE weakening the western edge of the ridge ...too much

[MWatkins]

Thoughts on the GFS run through 6 days - Jose's 500MB impact is shrinking, resulting in the western Atlantic ridge filling in between Maria and Jose.

The track is slight NE of the previous run so far, but, from what I am seeing, the pattern evolving in the model would lock Maria into an impact on the SE US coast, at least more so than the 18Z run...especially if Jose shears out faster than forecast in the model.

MW

[Aric Dunn]

Thoughts on the GFS run through 6 days - Jose's 500MB impact is shrinking, resulting in the western Atlantic ridge filling in between Maria and Jose.

The track is slight NE of the previous run so far, but, from what I am seeing, the pattern evolving in the model would lock Maria into an impact on the SE US coast, at least more so than the 18Z run...especially if Jose shears out faster than forecast in the model.

MW

Agreed and looking at Jose now a transition/ weakening seems more prevalent than not..

[MWatkins]

If the 0Z Euro shows a similar trend (although, likely more realistic) in weakening Jose, I think concern for a US/Bahamas impact in the long term increases. Still, a lot can happen, but wish we were seeing less, and not more downstream ridging in the 6-7 day period...

MW

[Aric Dunn]

If the 0Z Euro shows a similar trend (although, likely more realistic) in weakening Jose, I think concern for a US/Bahamas impact in the long term increases. Still, a lot can happen, but wish we were seeing less, and not more downstream ridging in the 6-7 day period...

MW

Any thoughts on jose's current structure? as it is clearly quickly showing signs of some transitioning.

[Hurricaneman]

That's why everyone from the eastern GOM to Nova Scotia need to watch this after the islands and the Bahamas as the ridge could be stronger with Jose most likely being weaker than any model has it

[MWatkins]

If the 0Z Euro shows a similar trend (although, likely more realistic) in weakening Jose, I think concern for a US/Bahamas impact in the long term increases. Still, a lot can happen, but wish we were seeing less, and not more downstream ridging in the 6-7 day period...

MW

Any thoughts on jose's current structure? as it is clearly quickly showing signs of some transitioning.

Definitely looks less tropical. With all the warm ridging around it, doubt it persists as long as the 0Z GFS is showing...

MW

[chaser1]

Like every FL resident, hoping current model trend continues - and so does Maria. Last 2 weeks were emotionally brutal here in S Florida...

I think key is a forecast second Jose loop, that'll help keep trough open...

Which brings up a question that I've pondered many times before. To what extent (if any) does a baroclinic low help break down a ridge any differently than a warm core cyclone? For that matter, to what extent does a ridge weaken from a weak low such as a large but shallow 1002 mb low verses a small but far deeper tropical cyclone?

[Aric Dunn]

If the 0Z Euro shows a similar trend (although, likely more realistic) in weakening Jose, I think concern for a US/Bahamas impact in the long term increases. Still, a lot can happen, but wish we were seeing less, and not more downstream ridging in the 6-7 day period...

MW

Any thoughts on jose's current structure? as it is clearly quickly showing signs of some transitioning.

Definitely looks less tropical. With all the warm ridging around it, doubt it persists as long as the 0Z GFS is showing...

MW

So with that said. what effect would this have on the incoming short wave? I can see less of a chance it gets left behind given the set up if it were not fully tropical when the trough approaches.