CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[ncapps]

My gosh the GFS has really dug in with this solution for a couple days now. Not good.

It was the first to call for a north track solution when the Euro and UKMET were showing a south track away from Hawaii.

The ensembles are not consistent at all after 48 hours.For it to settle with a BI hit run after run is a bit strange, no?

[galaxy401]

That GFS run . Hopefully the mountains will shear Lane if it does come in strong.

[Camerooski]

From Wunderground's Bob Henson: "Two of the wild-card factors are typhoons Soulik and Cimaron. As they move in parallel across Korea and Japan later this week (see below), they will pump up the western half of the ridge. This, in turn, could help induce a stronger trough and a more pronounced break in the ridge downstream. These interactions can be very difficult for global models to capture accurately, which adds an extra note of uncertainty to the track forecast."
Yikes...

[Kingarabian]

From Wunderground's Bob Henson: "Two of the wild-card factors are typhoons Soulik and Cimaron. As they move in parallel across Korea and Japan later this week (see below), they will pump up the western half of the ridge. This, in turn, could help induce a stronger trough and a more pronounced break in the ridge downstream. These interactions can be very difficult for global models to capture accurately, which adds an extra note of uncertainty to the track forecast."
Yikes...

Thank you for sharing this.

[Kingarabian]

My gosh the GFS has really dug in with this solution for a couple days now. Not good.

It was the first to call for a north track solution when the Euro and UKMET were showing a south track away from Hawaii.

The ensembles are not consistent at all after 48 hours.For it to settle with a BI hit run after run is a bit strange, no?

Most of the stronger GEFS and EPS members are on the right side of the envelope. The reason there's inconsistency with the track is due to the differences in strength between each member. Remember, Hawaii always has an active TUTT in place. Where its situated will be very important in regards to track. If the TUTT shears off Lane, the western solutions will be favored.

[Kingarabian]

Still waiting for the advertised weakening that the GFS started to show around 06z last night:

[bob rulz]

When is the next recon?

[ncapps]

Still waiting for the advertised weakening that the GFS started to show around 06z last night:

Yea, doubt that comes to fruition by the looks of things. The subtle jog to the south kept in a better environment. HMON has this at 125 knots 48hr from now at N15/W155.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS 0 - 114 hours.

[Kingarabian]

When is the next recon?

I think they're still doing 12 hour fixes, so likely in another 6 hours.

[ncapps]

When is the next recon?

I think they're still doing 12 hour fixes, so likely in another 6 hours.

Correct, next recon will be in 0Z runs.

Then I think every 6 hours.

[Kingarabian]

When is the next recon?

I think they're still doing 12 hour fixes, so likely in another 6 hours.

Correct, next recon will be in 0Z runs.

Then I think every 6 hours.

More environment and storm samples will be in the 00z suite as well. So basing this on the GFS's Big Island landfall in less than 96 hours, I believe we're reaching the final consolidation phase between the models. Let's see how it folds out.

[supercane4867]

Things are starting to look bad for Hawaii. I remember Iniki's recurve toward the Islands was also poorly predicted. CPHC didn't issue warnings on Iniki until the last minute. Lets hope they prepare well for Lane.

[ncapps]

Things are starting to look bad for Hawaii. I remember Iniki's recurve toward the Islands was also poorly predicted. CPHC didn't issue warnings on Iniki until the last minute. Lets hope they prepare well for Lane.

They will most likely be very conservative just because of this, the uncertainty in track, and strength. I'd imagine Watches could go out tomorrow night?

[Kingarabian]

Things are starting to look bad for Hawaii. I remember Iniki's recurve toward the Islands was also poorly predicted. CPHC didn't issue warnings on Iniki until the last minute. Lets hope they prepare well for Lane.

They will most likely be very conservative just because of this, the uncertainty in track, and strength. I'd imagine Watches could go out tomorrow night?

TS watch for Big Island and should be initiated by tonight in my opinion.

[ncapps]

Things are starting to look bad for Hawaii. I remember Iniki's recurve toward the Islands was also poorly predicted. CPHC didn't issue warnings on Iniki until the last minute. Lets hope they prepare well for Lane.

They will most likely be very conservative just because of this, the uncertainty in track, and strength. I'd imagine Watches could go out tomorrow night?

TS watch for Big Island and should be initiated by tonight in my opinion.

Sorry, meant Hurricane. Yes, TS should be tonight.

Do you think they will just put a blanket hurricane watch out for all islands due to the uncertainty of the track?

[Kingarabian]

They will most likely be very conservative just because of this, the uncertainty in track, and strength. I'd imagine Watches could go out tomorrow night?

TS watch for Big Island and should be initiated by tonight in my opinion.

Sorry, meant Hurricane. Yes, TS should be tonight.

Do you think they will just put a blanket hurricane watch out for all islands due to the uncertainty of the track?

That's what they should be doing. The NHC has no shame in doing so, but I doubt the CPHC would do it unless they're sure. Unfortunately the CPHC has taken a lot of backlash from the communities here due to botched landfall forecasts stemming back to the crazy 2015 season which was not their fault.

[Kingarabian]

18z HMON has a big shift back east towards the big island...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z FV3 coming in closer to Hawaii.

[ncapps]

HMON is a hit for populated Kona area of BI. Maybe as Cat 2.