Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[MississippiWx]

12z Euro a good bit weaker with the disturbance at 72 hours.

?

I don't see it on the generic stuff. If anything only the ridge in the Atlantic might be a little weaker. What are you seeing at 72 that's anything beyond vaguely being a similar run.

Look at the 850mb vort. It’s very weak, even through 96 hours. Gfs/Euro very similar now.

[Steve]

Yeah I got you. Looks a lot faster too but still same general WNW path straight for SELA @120 - just not that defined.

[NDG]

Looking at the latest Euro 10% might be too generous, .

[MississippiWx]

Yeah I got you. Looks a lot faster too but still same general WNW path straight for SELA @120 - just not that defined.

Yeah the speed of the system seems detrimental for development along with upper level conditions. Both models show it organizing as its coming ashore in Louisiana, but likely too late for classification. In the next day or two, we should know for sure if it’s going to develop. As long as the ensembles show development it’s worth watching.

[Steve]

Yeah I got you. Looks a lot faster too but still same general WNW path straight for SELA @120 - just not that defined.

Yeah the speed of the system seems detrimental for development along with upper level conditions. Both models show it organizing as its coming ashore in Louisiana, but likely too late for classification. In the next day or two, we should know for sure if it’s going to develop. As long as the ensembles show development it’s worth watching.

For sure. There appears to be an initial surge (after the stuff that the NAM is showing) at about 5 days followed by the "low" which appears to gain more favorable conditions once inland. Guess (if EC is right) is that it picks up more of a Low signature once inland though as you said, too late for classification. Still means probably some 20-30mph winds and at least several inches of rain for you guys and us.

[stormlover2013]

is that high pressue to its west and east of Texas?

[stormlover2013]

that is not a good run for texas, could be 3-4 straight days of rain

[tropicwatch]

Decreasing wind shear and increasing 850mb vorticity. If this continues might see an increase in development chances.

[PSUHiker31]

Euro much weaker on both this disturbance and 06L too.

Ill wait until Monday to take strength forecasts seriously. Interesting to note that the 12Z runs of both models have tended to be weaker than the 00Z runs.

[Evil Jeremy]

Decreasing wind shear and increasing 850mb vorticity. If this continues might see an increase in development chances.
http://tropicwatch.info/wg8vor083020181800.bmp

Vorticity has become a bit more concentrated in two spots. The more notable cluster that is closer to Colombia than Hispaniola, and from what I understand is expected to slowly loose steam. The other spot is just over Puerto Rico right now. Per CIMSS, it looks like vorticity is slowly re-concentrating just below 20N. Definitely picked up over past 3-6 hours. Time will tell if it holds.

[Hammy]

Surprised to see the Euro drop this, but with the weaker runs vs GFS with the system off Africa as well, makes me think the conditions are far less favorable across the basin than they were expected to be.

[otowntiger]

Surprised to see the Euro drop this, but with the weaker runs vs GFS with the system off Africa as well, makes me think the conditions are far less favorable across the basin than they were expected to be.

yeah, I'm not surprised. I find it hard to believe that the abnormally and sustained hostile enviornment could be turned off like a switch. I think the change will be more gradual and will stil not be nearly as active as people are thinking over these last couple of days. Wind shear is our friend and is the single biggest inhibiting factor for developing TC's.

[PSUHiker31]

Surprised to see the Euro drop this, but with the weaker runs vs GFS with the system off Africa as well, makes me think the conditions are far less favorable across the basin than they were expected to be.

yeah, I'm not surprised. I find it hard to believe that the abnormally and sustained hostile enviornment could be turned off like a switch. I think the change will be more gradual and will stil not be nearly as active as people are thinking over these last couple of days. Wind shear is our friend and is the single biggest inhibiting factor for developing TC's.

Meh. In four days it will be back as at least a significant TS on models and people will start Harveying it.

[Stormcenter]

Don't put too much emphasis on these early runs for organization or strength, just look at the overall consensus of the track for now. A lot and I mean a lot can change from now until next week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Surprised to see the Euro drop this, but with the weaker runs vs GFS with the system off Africa as well, makes me think the conditions are far less favorable across the basin than they were expected to be.

yeah, I'm not surprised. I find it hard to believe that the abnormally and sustained hostile enviornment could be turned off like a switch. I think the change will be more gradual and will stil not be nearly as active as people are thinking over these last couple of days. Wind shear is our friend and is the single biggest inhibiting factor for developing TC's.

I hope you are right, but early model runs of the Euro in the past have failed to pick up on development. This is why I am a bit concerned for the GOM. It will be moving quickly, so a strong storm is not too likely, but flooding rains on heavily saturated grounds across FL and west into MS/LA could be problematic. Even though it’s moving quickly, it has a large envelope of heavy thunderstorms, which is why I am concerned when it comes to excessive rainfall.

[N2FSU]

Radar out of Puerto Rico showing quiet a bit of counterclockwise spin now.

[Evil Jeremy]

The vorticity concentration between Hispaniola and Colombia has vanished. The vorticity just ahead of Puerto Rico is picking up steam, as is another chunk close to Jamaica, but I don't think that should have any role to play.

[Gustywind]

Very strong round of showers and thunderstorms who are spreading on my location while i'm writing. Lightnings are moving towards my direction.
Guadeloupe is always Under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Watch out my neighbours, this twave has a very nice convective activity today! Hope everbody is safe and dry in the Leewards Luis be aware, be on your guard it's raining nicely with tstorms, looks like juicy convection is doting your area too.
Gustywind

[Siker]

Still a long way to go with this system. Recall that Hermine was falsely predicted to develop at multiple times before models finely latched on as it entered the Gulf.

[drezee]

Do not write this off. I still think this will be a TC in the GOM. Pattern is tricky, but loaded. Euro maybe having issues bundling energy south and north of the islands. It could actually spin up before FL ...