ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

IMO its been a TD for the past 24 hours.

[AnnularCane]

I marked up this graphic for both systems, but it's just as important for 98L, so I'll post it here. I've circled the rough areas where 97L and 98L should be in 96 hrs (97L) and 120 hrs (98L). I didn't go as far with 97L because models are even more iffy than 98L. Assuming 98L stays north of the Greater Antilles, it'll be running through higher and higher SSTs until it reaches 30-31C surface temperatures in the southern Bahamas. If we have a defined TC reach that area, and if the UL environment does turn out to be good, we could quickly have a problem on our hands. Of course, all of this depends on when 98L develops, how fast it's moving (the Euro is too fast for it to become anything significant), whether it hits any of the islands or not, and whether or not it could recurve, and if so, where.
https://i.imgur.com/qOWpiub.png

Wow, that's a lot of pink.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is really on the cusp of being a,TD, if it isn't one already.

[DestinHurricane]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Yeah, it is really on the cusp of being a,TD, if it isn't one already.

I’d say it is one, the models are currently failing on this one

[MarioProtVI]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

That seems a little too late IMO. It’s looking the best it has been with an increasingly defined LLC and curved bands are developing. IMO, likely will be a TD tonight.

[TallyTracker]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

[DestinHurricane]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

They would have already said if they are going to do it at 5. Usually they announce an hour before the first advisory.

[AutoPenalti]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

They would have already said if they are going to do it at 5. Usually they announce an hour before the first advisory.

There's evident rotation occurring but there could be a lack of west winds to close this off.

[DestinHurricane]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

They would have already said if they are going to do it at 5. Usually they announce an hour before the first advisory.

There's evident rotation occurring but there could be a lack of west winds to close this off.

ASCAT scan is needed to classify.

[TallyTracker]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

They would have already said if they are going to do it at 5. Usually they announce an hour before the first advisory.

Sometimes they don’t if the TWO was already heading that direction. If a definitive ASCAT had come in around 4 pm clearly showing it developed, they would likely have put out an announcement. They may wait, but wxman57 mentioned it should be reaching the Lesser Antilles in 48 hours which requires watches.

[aspen]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

That seems a little late to me. If convections persists and curves some more, I could see an upgrade at 11pm tonight, but maybe 5am tomorrow if the NHC is being a little extra conservative.

[Evil Jeremy]

Definitely looks like a Tropical Depression now. I think the NHC will at least do PTC advisories at 5 pm, but IMO they could go ahead and just do TD Twelve advisories. We’ll see.

They would have already said if they are going to do it at 5. Usually they announce an hour before the first advisory.

Sometimes they don’t if the TWO was already heading that direction. If a definitive ASCAT had come in around 4 pm clearly showing it developed, they would likely have put out an announcement. They may wait, but wxman57 mentioned it should be reaching the Lesser Antilles in 48 hours which requires watches.

The preceding TWO would have verbiage along the lines of "advisories could be initiated shortly" or "a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a Tropical Depression".... and special verbiage along the lines of "watches may need to be issued later today" would be in a TWO preceding a PTC designation.

[Kingarabian]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

That seems a little late to me. If convections persists and curves some more, I could see an upgrade at 11pm tonight, but maybe 5am tomorrow if the NHC is being a little extra conservative.

Maybe the NHC is testing it and wants to see if it continues to look like this for another 24 hours. I think they could be more conservative in the short term due to the lack of GFS and Euro development.

[eastcoastFL]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

That seems a little late to me. If convections persists and curves some more, I could see an upgrade at 11pm tonight, but maybe 5am tomorrow if the NHC is being a little extra conservative.

Maybe the NHC is testing it and wants to see if it continues to look like this for another 24 hours. I think they could be more conservative in the short term due to the lack of GFS and Euro development.

They do have recon scheduled tomorrow. So they may wait for that unless it just blows up before.

[SouthFLTropics]

Probably will get upgraded 11am tomorrow.

That seems a little late to me. If convections persists and curves some more, I could see an upgrade at 11pm tonight, but maybe 5am tomorrow if the NHC is being a little extra conservative.

Maybe the NHC is testing it and wants to see if it continues to look like this for another 24 hours. I think they could be more conservative in the short term due to the lack of GFS and Euro development.

They also have the luxury of being a little conservative for the next 12 hours or so at least, since it currently is not a threat to land. I could see a PTC by 11:00 PM and an upgrade to TD or TS by tomorrow at 5:00 AM, especially if they get a good ASCAT.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it does hit the US, No way will this make US landfall by Monday Night, It’s still way east of the islands. And it’s already almost Wednesday Night

[AutoPenalti]

That seems a little late to me. If convections persists and curves some more, I could see an upgrade at 11pm tonight, but maybe 5am tomorrow if the NHC is being a little extra conservative.

Maybe the NHC is testing it and wants to see if it continues to look like this for another 24 hours. I think they could be more conservative in the short term due to the lack of GFS and Euro development.

They also have the luxury of being a little conservative for the next 12 hours or so at least, since it currently is not a threat to land. I could see a PTC by 11:00 PM and an upgrade to TD or TS by tomorrow at 5:00 AM, especially if they get a good ASCAT.

Can't they initiate Special Advisories whenever allowed?

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe the NHC is testing it and wants to see if it continues to look like this for another 24 hours. I think they could be more conservative in the short term due to the lack of GFS and Euro development.

They also have the luxury of being a little conservative for the next 12 hours or so at least, since it currently is not a threat to land. I could see a PTC by 11:00 PM and an upgrade to TD or TS by tomorrow at 5:00 AM, especially if they get a good ASCAT.

Can't they initiate Special Advisories whenever allowed?

They can do whatever they want.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd like to see it sustain this convection for another 6 hours before classifying it, IMO.