ATL: ETA - Models

[Spacecoast]

Did not see the 12z GEFS Ensembles posted yet , so....

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/LzZJDIv.png

It seems the Euro will have underestimated the strength of Eta in near term .

As it has done with just about every system in the back half of the season

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is bumping up the advisories to 4pm when the time changes something new or have they always done that?

[SconnieCane]

Is bumping up the advisories to 4pm when the time changes something new or have they always done that?

Advisory times stay the same in UTC, so they now come out an hour earlier than they did in local time.

[TheStormExpert]

Is bumping up the advisories to 4pm when the time changes something new or have they always done that?

They do it every year. The new times are 4am/4pm & 10am/10pm for full advisories and 1am/1pm & 7am/7pm for intermediate advisories.

[SouthFLTropics]

In the FWIW category, ICON no longer buries this and leaves it for dead in Central America. It re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras weakened but intact.


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[TallahasseeMan]

Will the 18z Models have the recon data or will we have to wait for the 0z runs?

[TallahasseeMan]

18z early guidance

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is bumping up the advisories to 4pm when the time changes something new or have they always done that?

They do it every year. The new times are 4am/4pm & 10am/10pm for full advisories and 1am/1pm & 7am/7pm for intermediate advisories.

I guess Nov 1st I'm generally not paying as much attention as this year

[RL3AO]

Is bumping up the advisories to 4pm when the time changes something new or have they always done that?

The east coast is now UTC - 5 after the time change, so the 21z advisory comes out at 16:00 on the east coast.

[SFLcane]

In the FWIW category, ICON no longer buries this and leaves it for dead in Central America. It re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras weakened but intact.


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A strengthening storm heading north.

[kevin]

Will the 18z Models have the recon data or will we have to wait for the 0z runs?

Considering the recon aircraft only arrived at Eta at 1800z I don't think the data made it in today's 18z models, but someone correct me if I'm wrong. It should (hopefully) be added in time for the 00z runs.

[Spacecoast]

18z intensity guidance... HWRF ramping up.
Major difference between HWRF, and OFCI intensity @hr 120


I sure hope that these western scenerios do not play out!
(HWRF, CTCI, CMC,or GEFS member AP26)

[aspen]

18z GFS is much stronger. It initializes pretty close to the actual intensity and has a 966 mbar landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS is much stronger. It initializes pretty close to the actual intensity and has a 966 mbar landfall.

Also further south.

[skyline385]

HWRF going nuts, 963 mb at 12 hours

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS long-range with a new solution:

[kevin]

18z HWRF has a 951 mbar major hurricane at 18 hours

[aspen]

18z HWRF has extremely rapid intensification...in fact, a little too much RI. That’s a Cat 4 by late tomorrow morning. That’s not happening.

[Keldeo1997]

By far the strongest the HWRF has been with a Cat 4 in 24 hours.