Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

[Cpv17]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

Yeah, I always thought there was like a 6 week ish lag.

[gpsnowman]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

In Nina and early season, yes… that’s has happened recently.


In Nino and in peak climo, typically not, although it could take 2-3 weeks.

Good info. Something to monitor after the new year.

[Ntxw]

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

There's no definitive time. If it's already colder, it won't take so long. But if we want to be conservative and use conventional timing then yeah the end of January to start February could feature a sig cold snap. Middle of month could be a candidate time zone.

Excellent. Thanks for the info. I guess each one has its own characteristics during and after.

1965-1966 (strong El Nino) had a very warm December. Late January had snow and DFW got down to 9F after a SSW.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the GFS 12z shows the effects of the SSW around the 8th of january with some impressive alaskan blocking, im keeping my emotions in check, but I can’t be the only one getting excited about the potential this pattern has ahead

[Ntxw]

Looks like the GFS 12z shows the effects of the SSW around the 8th of january with some impressive alaskan blocking, im keeping my emotions in check, but I can’t be the only one getting excited about the potential this pattern has ahead

SSW cold wave would be nice, long range GFS maps showing it is better than not showing anything. But to start the month we aren't relying on the SSW, we're looking at the ridging retrograding. It started in the open Atlantic and in C-Canada now. By next week the Pacific should get it. Better air masses for the systems, like Bubba noted above any dynamic system could take advantage.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looks like the GFS 12z shows the effects of the SSW around the 8th of january with some impressive alaskan blocking, im keeping my emotions in check, but I can’t be the only one getting excited about the potential this pattern has ahead

SSW cold wave would be nice, long range GFS maps showing it is better than not showing anything. But to start the month we aren't relying on the SSW, we're looking at the ridging retrograding. It started in the open Atlantic and in C-Canada now. By next week the Pacific should get it. Better air masses for the systems, like Bubba noted above any dynamic system could take advantage.

I think the main point is we could have a SSW event along with the right teleconnections coinciding with a MJO sweet spot for us and active storm track right over us.

You really can’t ask for much more.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the GFS 12z shows the effects of the SSW around the 8th of january with some impressive alaskan blocking, im keeping my emotions in check, but I can’t be the only one getting excited about the potential this pattern has ahead

SSW cold wave would be nice, long range GFS maps showing it is better than not showing anything. But to start the month we aren't relying on the SSW, we're looking at the ridging retrograding. It started in the open Atlantic and in C-Canada now. By next week the Pacific should get it. Better air masses for the systems, like Bubba noted above any dynamic system could take advantage.

I think the main point is we could have a SSW event along with the right teleconnections coinciding with a MJO sweet spot for us and active storm track right over us.

You really can’t ask for much more.

For sure the ducks are lining up.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Today is the anniversary of the weather event that made me a Winter weather freak.

December 23, 1989
Longview, TX

75 and doing yard work with Dad when a thunderstorm rolls in and it plummets to 25 very quickly and the most intense Thunder Sleet then Thunder Snow and then beautiful next morning of nothing but white.

I’ll never forget it.

[Harp.1]

Dr

There's no definitive time. If it's already colder, it won't take so long. But if we want to be conservative and use conventional timing then yeah the end of January to start February could feature a sig cold snap. Middle of month could be a candidate time zone.

Excellent. Thanks for the info. I guess each one has its own characteristics during and after.

1965-1966 (strong El Nino) had a very warm December. Late January had snow and DFW got down to 9F after a SSW.

I was living in Dallas at the time as a child and remember it quite well. We have home movies of that event.

[bubba hotep]

After the activity to start the month, looks like a big SSW is in the cards now if not probable. >~10m/s at 60mb. Could be a big cold wave once it propagates. SPV stretching well south onto the North American side.

Isn't there a several week lag time for cold after a SSW? Similar to 2021?

There's no definitive time. If it's already colder, it won't take so long. But if we want to be conservative and use conventional timing then yeah the end of January to start February could feature a sig cold snap. Middle of month could be a candidate time zone.

There are also broader background impacts beyond just the "polar vortex" that tend to lead to the lagged cold. So, if you can get the dislodging of the PV in your favor, then you can really cash in on an extended below-normal period.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS continues the trend and now shows 20% of the members with multi-inch events at DFW during that first week of January. This is typically a sign of an increasing signal vs. a bunch of trace members.

[Tireman4]

[quote="ThunderSleetDreams"]Today is the anniversary of the weather event that made me a Winter weather freak.

December 23, 1989
Longview, TX

75 and doing yard work with Dad when a thunderstorm rolls in and it plummets to 25 very quickly and the most intense Thunder Sleet then Thunder Snow and then beautiful next morning of nothing but white.

I’ll never forget it.[/quote

Thus the legend and your name grew from that Thunderstorm!

[Itryatgolf]

If the SSW is the real deal, the models should start to really indicating it with colder ens and op runs. Perhaps the mjo will align with what we want and need as well.

[Brent]

If the SSW is the real deal, the models should start to really indicating it with colder ens and op runs. Perhaps the mjo will align with what we want and need as well.

The end of the GFS earlier(12z run) had single digits here so it's trying to hint at times

[Itryatgolf]

If the SSW is the real deal, the models should start to really indicating it with colder ens and op runs. Perhaps the mjo will align with what we want and need as well.

The end of the GFS earlier(12z run) had single digits here so it's trying to hint at times

It gets into 10 days showing that, I will be more inclined to believe it for sure at that point

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2023

Areas affected...middle/upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240311Z - 240910Z

SUMMARY...The threat for flash flooding is expected to steadily
increase overnight along the middle and upper TX coastline. Areas
of training with rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are expected
along with 6-hr totals of 3-4 inches on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 0230Z showed widespread
light to moderate rain along the TX Coastal Plain with embedded
areas of heavy rain near Matagorda Bay and just east of Galveston
Bay. The rain was due to a combination of warm advection and lift
out ahead of a southern stream shortwave near South TX. Moisture
return was ongoing into TX from the Gulf of Mexico with
precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches from the TX coast
to locations as far inland as Waco and San Antonio (RAOBs and GPS
data). Over the Gulf, an axis of low level convergence was
estimated to extend southeastward from Galveston Bay into the
west-central Gulf of Mexico (via surface observations and RAP
analysis data through 850 mb). Meanwhile, MLCAPE was variable
across the region, with as little as 100 J/kg along the upper TX
coast to over 500 J/kg inland from the middle TX coast via the 02Z
SPC mesoanalysis page (MUCAPE values slightly higher).

Forcing for ascent is likely to increase over the next 6 hours as
the shortwave near South TX continues to advance ENE and as
coupled jet exit/entrance regions focus increasing divergence
aloft over southeastern TX. In the lower levels, directional wind
and speed shear will focus areas of convergence near the
middle/upper TX coast, most likely between Matagorda and Galveston
Bay via the latest RAP forecast. Mean steering flow from the SSW
could allow for areas of training/repeating of stronger cells
containing high rainfall rates. Peak rainfall rates are expected
to average 1-2 in/hr, but locally higher rates cannot be ruled
out. CAPE will be a limiting factor for higher rates with the
latest RAP guidance suggesting better forcing along the upper TX
coast but better instability setting up farther south in the
vicinity of Matagorda Bay and offshore...25-50 miles south...of
Galveston Bay. Given relatively high flash flood guidance values,
areas of flash flooding that develop should remain localized.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

[Brent]

If the SSW is the real deal, the models should start to really indicating it with colder ens and op runs. Perhaps the mjo will align with what we want and need as well.

The end of the GFS earlier(12z run) had single digits here so it's trying to hint at times

It gets into 10 days showing that, I will be more inclined to believe it for sure at that point

Oh I agree but I was just making a point

I bet it will come down to if we get a real snowstorm or not.. without that probably no shot

I'm not believing anything yet but it is the best snow signal we've seen here so far

[Itryatgolf]

The end of the GFS earlier(12z run) had single digits here so it's trying to hint at times

It gets into 10 days showing that, I will be more inclined to believe it for sure at that point

Oh I agree but I was just making a point

I bet it will come down to if we get a real snowstorm or not.. without that probably no shot

I'm not believing anything yet but it is the best snow signal we've seen here so far

I took a week break offline. It's difficult to do in winter for sure

[Brent]

It gets into 10 days showing that, I will be more inclined to believe it for sure at that point

Oh I agree but I was just making a point

I bet it will come down to if we get a real snowstorm or not.. without that probably no shot

I'm not believing anything yet but it is the best snow signal we've seen here so far

I took a week break offline. It's difficult to do in winter for sure

It's crazy because some people have been saying January all along and now here we are with models trying to show it well see but this is definitely the first time I'm really checking every run