ATL: LEE - Models

[zal0phus]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

Wow that is one extremely sharp and abrupt recurve...have any notable Atlantic storms in the past done something like this?

The Long Island Express is the only one that comes to mind for me. Similar track to Lee so far but did a massive hook north of the Bahamas into New England

[redingtonbeach]

https://twitter.com/weatherbryan/status/1699475293499486251

The KMA got within 5 miles of landfall for Idalia at 4 days out. Talk about blind luck and a broke clock being correct twice a day. Might as well be throwing darts at a board at this point. This just goes to show how little we still know about weather modeling. Everyone talks about the technology now being so much greater than it was in 1998 for Mitch, 2004 for Frances, or 2017 and Irma. But what people fail to realize is just because the technology and computing has gotten better, the data input from humans remains the same. Garbage in, Garbage out.

CMC had a St. Pete strike 7 days out (00Z init 8/23). Pretty amazing, I thought.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like every model, and the ensembles, made an easterly shift overnight and put Bermuda firmly under the gun.

[OuterBanker]

35 N 70 W pretty much set in stone on almost all models around the 15th.

About 300 miles east of Hatteras and same from Bermuda. But it will be right weighted so Bermuda should get mare affects.

We should be sunny but ocean will be rough. I am concerned about erosion and over wash.

Boston to Halifax should keep a close eye. Pretty sure anywhere south of NC is safe.

[SecondBreakfast]

eps 00z
https://i.imgur.com/x3P1ty8.png
https://i.imgur.com/uEAnpG2.png

Wow that is one extremely sharp and abrupt recurve...have any notable Atlantic storms in the past done something like this?

The Long Island Express is the only one that comes to mind for me. Similar track to Lee so far but did a massive hook north of the Bahamas into New England

The 38 storm is the historical storm that scares me with Lee. Whether it’s this one or another storm it’s only a matter of time unfortunately. With the suburban development since then I don’t even want to imagine it.

[RevanTheJedi96]

Wow that is one extremely sharp and abrupt recurve...have any notable Atlantic storms in the past done something like this?

The Long Island Express is the only one that comes to mind for me. Similar track to Lee so far but did a massive hook north of the Bahamas into New England

The 38 storm is the historical storm that scares me with Lee. Whether it’s this one or another storm it’s only a matter of time unfortunately. With the suburban development since then I don’t even want to imagine it.

It would take a MASSIVE shift to be another Long Island Express. Out to sea or a weak hurricane into Atlantic Canada is still most likely and day by day that's only getting more so.

[OuterBanker]

An interesting question.

I wonder what Lee would do to the Bay of Fundy?

[sicktght311]

The Long Island Express is the only one that comes to mind for me. Similar track to Lee so far but did a massive hook north of the Bahamas into New England

The 38 storm is the historical storm that scares me with Lee. Whether it’s this one or another storm it’s only a matter of time unfortunately. With the suburban development since then I don’t even want to imagine it.

It would take a MASSIVE shift to be another Long Island Express. Out to sea or a weak hurricane into Atlantic Canada is still most likely and day by day that's only getting more so.

Dont put your guard down yet. This is still 6+ days out, and the front thats supposed to keep this offshore is still only modeled. THeres plenty of time for course changes. A slower weaker front can actually end up directing it right into eastern long island. Lots to watch over the next 2-3 days

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is adjusting a bit to the west this run towards the Euro, could this be the ultra rare Maine Landfall, stay tuned

[NYR__1994]

The 38 storm is the historical storm that scares me with Lee. Whether it’s this one or another storm it’s only a matter of time unfortunately. With the suburban development since then I don’t even want to imagine it.

It would take a MASSIVE shift to be another Long Island Express. Out to sea or a weak hurricane into Atlantic Canada is still most likely and day by day that's only getting more so.

Dont put your guard down yet. This is still 6+ days out, and the front thats supposed to keep this offshore is still only modeled. THeres plenty of time for course changes. A slower weaker front can actually end up directing it right into eastern long island. Lots to watch over the next 2-3 days

And the forecast is slowing the actual storm down each revision as well. Anything beyond the 5 day cone is simply an educated (how educated is up for debate) guess.

[hohnywx]

SW shift thus far on the 12z GFS

[cheezyWXguy]

If you go to hour 204 of the gfs, use the 500mb height anomaly setting, and pan back through the last 6 or 7 runs, you can see how laughably inconsistent it still is in terms of trough strength and evolution, as well as Lee’s positioning relative to that trough.

We still have a lot of models to sit through before anyone north of the Carolinas gets an all-clear

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

SW shift thus far on the 12z GFS

https://imgur.com/uwbzSFF

12Z is 170 nm west of Bermuda, almost exactly the same as 6z, just arriving a little later.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

If you go to hour 204 of the gfs, use the 500mb height anomaly setting, and pan back through the last 6 or 7 runs, you can see how laughably inconsistent it still is in terms of trough strength and evolution, as well as Lee’s positioning relative to that trough.

We still have a lot of models to sit through before anyone north of the Carolinas gets an all-clear

It looks like a recurve but 700 miles east of the windward islands is obviously way too soon for anyone to feel comfortable.

[Beef Stew]

The future of (soon-to-be) Margot is going to have a lot to do with determining the steering patterns of Lee. If Margot hangs around in the long-range, as this run suggests, it could keep Lee from getting too far west later in the forecast.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1699827429198414321

[Hayabusa]

167 kts and 175 kts from HFSA A,B

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

167 kts and 175 kts from HFSA A,B
https://i.imgur.com/LvXw5b8.png
https://i.imgur.com/N4k1X7z.png

That would be the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic. This storm has a lot of potential but I don't think that area of the ocean has enough heat content to support 175 knots.

[aspen]

167 kts and 175 kts from HFSA A,B
https://i.imgur.com/LvXw5b8.png
https://i.imgur.com/N4k1X7z.png

I haven’t seen model runs this strong since the legendary 300+ kt old HWRF runs for Mangkhut ‘18. With how aggressive the HAFS is and how far along Lee is, I’d be shocked if it doesn’t become a 5. Probably not >160 kt though.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow... If some of these intensities pan out, the Hurricane Hunters are going to be in for a heck of a ride over the next two to three days. Kudos to those men and women in those planes gathering crucial data. Here's hoping they have a good flight and return home safely.