ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/GJHjN4M.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-6&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Debby is starting to looking dangerous. Its development over just the last few hours has been very rapid and I see no reason to think it
won't continue at that pace. I think we could have a Cat1 by the time it reaches the panhandle area.

[StPeteMike]

This is a wildly better organized storm vs six hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/fejLrAS.jpeg

For sure! Just needed a few hours over water to get it together.

[Hurricane2022]

The love is in the sky, on the land, in the sea, in the air... and maybe in TS Debby as well

[Prof]

I’m supposed to drive from Atlanta to Gainesville Tuesday afternoon. Is this a bad idea?

[Category5Kaiju]

Btw, this is what Ian looked like 3 days before it hit Ft Myers. Reminscent of Debby given a healthy overall cyclonic "skeleton" was present but there was still not a heck-ton of inner core convection. I'm going to be very interested to see how Debby performs over the bathwater Gulf with 30-32 C waters and nearly 5 knots of shear.

[beachnut]

Debby 2024 is looking like a big girl. Be nice, no Ian tendencies please, thanks.

[BobHarlem]

What's going on with Recon?

[BobHarlem]

I’m supposed to drive from Atlanta to Gainesville Tuesday afternoon. Is this a bad idea?

Gonna be hairy, if you have a big vehicle maybe.

[Travorum]

AF Recon looks like its just about to take off, I'm very interested to see what Debby's pressure gradient looks like given all the surface reports from the keys.

[hipshot]

I’m supposed to drive from Atlanta to Gainesville Tuesday afternoon. Is this a bad idea?

The way it looks right now, I would take a pass and reschedule. My thoughts are that it is only going to get worse too.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1819858724946948553

[weeniepatrol]

Yea... ok

[hipshot]

Yea... ok

https://i.imgur.com/Kq0lfVV.png

What are we looking at for us non-weather experts?

[Steve]

This is a wildly better organized storm vs six hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/fejLrAS.jpeg

I'm starting to think that we could see an "surprise" major hurricane like Idalia and Michael...

Not Michael. Almost no chance. It would be too far NE in the Gulf for that, too early and MJO is edge of Phase 1. There’s enough support to assume pressure will drop all the way to landfall, but there isn’t anything saying it could get past Cat 2 in the Gulf. JMO, and I do expect it to bring a solid punch. But north of Tampa and east of Apalachicola is really tough to get anything super strong. There’s always a first time as we all know but Big Bend isn’t a hotspot. Record is 3 Cat 3’s ever - 1896 Cedar Key, 1950 Easy and Idalia last year

[weeniepatrol]

Yea... ok

https://i.imgur.com/Kq0lfVV.png

What are we looking at for us non-weather experts?

developing inner core

[Travorum]

Yea... ok

https://i.imgur.com/Kq0lfVV.png

Gonna be looking at the next pass at 23:22z closely, if that nascent cyan ring continues to develop some level of rapid intensification could be a distinct possibility.

[hipshot]

This is a wildly better organized storm vs six hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/fejLrAS.jpeg

I'm starting to think that we could see an "surprise" major hurricane like Idalia and Michael...

Not Michael. Almost no chance. It would be too far NE in the Gulf for that, too early and MJO is edge of Phase 1. There’s enough support to assume pressure will drop all the way to landfall, but there isn’t anything saying it could get past Cat 2 in the Gulf. JMO, and I do expect it to bring a solid punch. But north of Tampa and east of Apalachicola is really tough to get anything super strong.

If this storm moves more westerly than northerly, the time it takes could cause it to not be picked up by the trough coming down from
the northeast. If that happens and the ridge that is supposed to fill in behind that trough could cause this storm to really slow down
and maybe even stall. That would not be good!

[WeatherBoy2000]

This is a wildly better organized storm vs six hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/fejLrAS.jpeg

I'm starting to think that we could see an "surprise" major hurricane like Idalia and Michael...

Not Michael. Almost no chance. It would be too far NE in the Gulf for that, too early and MJO is edge of Phase 1. There’s enough support to assume pressure will drop all the way to landfall, but there isn’t anything saying it could get past Cat 2 in the Gulf. JMO, and I do expect it to bring a solid punch. But north of Tampa and east of Apalachicola is really tough to get anything super strong.

I agree that there's nothing to indicate a cat 5, let alone a major hurricane at this time. However, as proven by Beryl, nothing seems to be "too early" this year.

[xironman]

This is a wildly better organized storm vs six hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/fejLrAS.jpeg

I'm starting to think that we could see an "surprise" major hurricane like Idalia and Michael...

Not Michael. Almost no chance. It would be too far NE in the Gulf for that, too early and MJO is edge of Phase 1. There’s enough support to assume pressure will drop all the way to landfall, but there isn’t anything saying it could get past Cat 2 in the Gulf. JMO, and I do expect it to bring a solid punch. But north of Tampa and east of Apalachicola is really tough to get anything super strong. There’s always a first time as we all know but Big Bend isn’t a hotspot. Record is 3 Cat 3’s ever - 1896 Cedar Key, 1950 Easy and Idalia last year

I understand MJO as far as the ability for tropical systems to develop. But once the core is made it is the up to the surrounding environment as to what it does. Going off of past years has kind of lost its edge. We aren't in Kansas anymore.

[Steve]

I'm starting to think that we could see an "surprise" major hurricane like Idalia and Michael...

Not Michael. Almost no chance. It would be too far NE in the Gulf for that, too early and MJO is edge of Phase 1. There’s enough support to assume pressure will drop all the way to landfall, but there isn’t anything saying it could get past Cat 2 in the Gulf. JMO, and I do expect it to bring a solid punch. But north of Tampa and east of Apalachicola is really tough to get anything super strong.

If this storm moves more westerly than northerly, the time it takes could cause it to not be picked up by the trough coming down from
the northeast. If that happens and the ridge that is supposed to fill in behind that trough could cause this storm to really slow down
and maybe even stall. That would not be good!

Yeah word. Anything west of Apalachicola and bets are off for any system coming out of the Caribbean. Apalachicola (and St. George to its south) is roughly 84.9. PCB about 85.8. I said last night I didn’t see this landfalling west of St George Island. Could Debby get close to 85? Maybe? And certainly if it got left behind anything can happen. But just based on general prognostication of what we know as of now there are limits to how strong Debby can get in the Gulf.