ATL: FRANCINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

CAPE up to 6000

[crimi481]

Storm is moving very slow. This changes the track and allows it to get stronger. Possibly lands
closer to Fl panhandle as Cat 3. Time will tell

[jabman98]

Zero rain for Houston out of this.

Yeah, looks that way. I was hoping for at least a few showers.

Those of you in the cone, stay safe.

[Kazmit]

[LARanger]

All I'm saying is, I'm getting pretty damn tired of performing successful storm chasing intercepts at my house.

[kevin]

Latest pass found 57 kt FL winds and 58 kt SFMR. This blends to 55 kt for the current intensity, even though they might go for 60 kt due to undersampling and the deepening pressure. Either way, Francine will attain 60 - 65 kt winds soon.

[kassi]

Surely they will drop the Tropical Storm Warning for Southeast Texas. People get worried easily (post Harvey, among others) and we likely won't get anything here. Beaumont area, btw.

[Charleswachal]

Surely they will drop the Tropical Storm Warning for Southeast Texas. People get worried easily (post Harvey, among others) and we likely won't get anything here. Beaumont area, btw.

I don't think they're going to drop it. I know that Galveston's probably going to see some tropical storm force wind gusts later today and there is that band that is sitting right off the coast that if it moves inland just a little bit could wind up bringing some very heavy rain totals to the coastal communities. Also, part of the tropical storm watch is for the increased wave end storm surge potential along the coast.

[MKAg]

I always watch where they put Jim Cantore as an indicator... wanted to share where TWC has positioned him and their other reporters.

[MississippiWx]

I’ve seen lots of claims of “dry air”, but what I haven’t seen is any evidence in the cloud pattern of dry air. Normally, thunderstorms collapse and send arch clouds everywhere. I’ve seen none of those. I think there are other factors - just a thought!

Anyway, structure still looks good and on pace for quick strengthening later today and tonight. Kinda crazy that I could end up getting the strongest part of this system when it comes through. Looked well west of here yesterday. Still time to shift back west I suppose.

[cajungal]

I always watch where they put Jim Cantore as an indicator... wanted to share where TWC has positioned him and their other reporters.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXHuy9pXkAEBa-1?format=jpg&name=900x900

I am only 30 miles east of where Jim is. My husband’s cousin actually met him for Ida as he is the councilman for Jefferson parish.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I’ve seen lots of claims of “dry air”, but what I haven’t seen is any evidence in the cloud pattern of dry air. Normally, thunderstorms collapse and send arch clouds everywhere. I’ve seen none of those. I think there are other factors - just a thought!

Anyway, structure still looks good and on pace for quick strengthening later today and tonight. Kinda crazy that I could end up getting the strongest part of this system when it comes through. Looked well East of here yesterday. Still time to shift back west I suppose.

There were quite a few on the far SE side yesterday. I don't see them today though

[Kazmit]

I wonder how much research has been done on these large convective blobs that form from outer bands that often make it more difficult for TCs to intensify. Beryl had one too at one point. And Matthew's was iconic. Anyway, this one seems to be slowly dissipating.

[Pipelines182]

I’ve seen lots of claims of “dry air”, but what I haven’t seen is any evidence in the cloud pattern of dry air. Normally, thunderstorms collapse and send arch clouds everywhere. I’ve seen none of those. I think there are other factors - just a thought!

Anyway, structure still looks good and on pace for quick strengthening later today and tonight. Kinda crazy that I could end up getting the strongest part of this system when it comes through. Looked well East of here yesterday. Still time to shift back west I suppose.

I've noticed that a lot of people incorrectly associate lack of convection with "dry air". You're absolutely right, there's been no visible signs of dry air anywhere, not an outflow boundary to be seen.

[EasyTiger]

[Texashawk]

Crazy that this was originally plotted to make landfall near Beaumont/Sabine Pass. Now, Mississippi might be in play. Feels like both Beryl and Francine made significant East model shifts as time passed. Is it common to have an initial west bias for models in the Gulf or is just normal forecast drift?

[Teban54]

Latest pass found 57 kt FL winds and 58 kt SFMR. This blends to 55 kt for the current intensity, even though they might go for 60 kt due to undersampling and the deepening pressure. Either way, Francine will attain 60 - 65 kt winds soon.

AF measured 63 kt FL, albeit at a higher level. SFMR only peaked at 47 kt on this pass, though.

[Travorum]

2.5 hours ago:

[wx98]

...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED...

10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 10
Location: 24.9°N 95.6°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[Steve]

Crazy that this was originally plotted to make landfall near Beaumont/Sabine Pass. Now, Mississippi might be in play. Feels like both Beryl and Francine made significant East model shifts as time passed. Is it common to have an initial west bias for models in the Gulf or is just normal forecast drift?

57 has alluded to this a few times over the last few days. Storms coming up from the BoC with a trough across Texas and moving SE will have these systems organizing farther and farther northeast with the track shifted. They can only go so far though. I don't think it will come in east of Grand Isle though. Maybe a small chance of crossing Plaquemines Parish and hitting around Slidell/Bay St. Louis, but that seems kind of remote. It's going to depend on how organized it gets. If it makes the upper end of possible intensification, I think areas that got hit worst by Ida (Terrebonne, Lafourche, St. Charles, Tangipahoa, Livingston) would be the most affected - just by a weaker system.