Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[SouthFloridawx]

The shear is starting to strengthen north of chanchu. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... mssht.html

[HURAKAN]

HONG KONG OBSERVATORY:

[CHRISTY]

Looks like its gonna miss HongKong....But its gonna be close.

[milankovitch]

Looks like its gonna miss HongKong....But its gonna be close.

That's only 60 mi east. At three days out Hong Kong is well within the cone of possibility.

[CentralFlGal]

Still from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/westpac/visirjava11.html

[HURAKAN]

Another possible catastrophe scenario is in front of our eyes. Let see what happens and how will Hong Kong hold after a major landfall. I think it's too early to precisely say where it will make landfall, but there's no question that Hong Kong should start to get ready for the worse.

[senorpepr]

Officially it's at 91KT...

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 13.9N 116.0E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 15.4N 114.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 161200UTC 18.9N 114.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 171200UTC 22.2N 114.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT =



92KT is the PAGASA estimate...
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "CALOY" {CHANCHU}
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 14 May 2006 Typhoon "CALOY" has gained more strength as it moved further west away from the country during the past six hours.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 540 kms west southwest of Metro Manila or
450 kms southwest of Iba, Zambales
Coordinates: 14.0°N, 115.7°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: west northwest at 13 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Monday evening:
640 kms west northwest of Iba, Zambales
Tuesday evening:
770 kms west northwest of Laoag City


CMA's estimate is 91KT...
WTPQ20 BABJ 141200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANCHU 0601 (0601) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC
00HR 14.0N 115.9E 955HPA 40M/S
30KTS 540KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 16.0N 114.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.8N 113.8E 945HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 21.9N 114.0E 945HPA 50M/S=


HKO's estimate is 91KT...
Bulletin issued at 01:00 HKT 15/May/2006

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 141500 UTC, Typhoon Chanchu (0601) with central pressure
955 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of
one three point nine degrees north (13.9 N) one one five
point seven degrees east (115.7 E) and is forecast to move
west-northwest at about 6 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 80 knots.
Radius of over 33 knot winds 300 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 90 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 360 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 151500 UTC
One six point zero degrees north (16.0 N)
One one four point five degrees east (114.5 E)
Maximum winds 85 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 161500 UTC
One eight point two degrees north (18.2 N)
One one four point four degrees east (114.4 E)
Maximum winds 85 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 171500 UTC
Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)
One one four point eight degrees east (114.8 E)
Maximum winds 85 knots.



KMA's estimate is 87KT...
TYPHOON INFORMATION
( 0601 CHANCHU)
Korea Meteorological Administration
ANALYSIS 0600 UTC 14 May 2006
Present Position 14.0 N, 116.6 E Moving Direction and Speed W, 16 km/h
Minimum Surface Pressure 960 hPa Maximum Sustained Wind 38 m/s
Radius of 15 m/s 550 km Radius of 25 m/s 130 km
FORECAST
24HRS 150600UTC 15.2 N, 114.7 E within 150km (44 m/s, 945 hPa)
48HRS 160600UTC 18.1 N, 113.9 E within 250km (46 m/s, 940 hPa)
72HRS 170600UTC 21.2 N, 114.1 E within 400km (44 m/s, 945 hPa)

[Scorpion]

Absolutely no way it is 90 kts. Thats laughable right now. It has the presentation of a Cat 4 or 5.

[senorpepr]

Absolutely no way it is 90 kts. Thats laughable right now. It has the presentation of a Cat 4 or 5.

Remember that what is a normal presentation for the Atlantic... is weaker in the WPAC.

[Normandy]

I really doubt thats a 90 kt storm.....thats just me however.

[cheezyWXguy]

how would it have weakened...it lost 10 mph?

[senorpepr]

I would tend to believe it's around 100-105KT...

[cheezyWXguy]

i agree with the 105kts...the lowest it would be now is 115mph becuz thats what it was in the last advisory and it doesnt look like it weakened at all

[HURAKAN]

The system looks quite strong. I say 105 - 110 knots. JTWC 115 knots estimate isn't bad at all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That is why I say those professional mets are being conservative, there is no way a monster with an eye like that is still a Cat-2. Those people make me mad.

[cheezyWXguy]

according to wunderground its at 130mph

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... r-nh11.GIF

Looking at this image you know this is not a Category 2. This is a Category 3 or possibly a 4. The mets in my opinion are just trying not to scare people in Chanchu's path of destruction.

[SouthFloridawx]

It does have a better satelite presentation since the advisory was issued and IMO just because they just released an advisory does not mean they can't upgrade in the next advisory that will be issued. When they issued it they thought that was the best estimate at the time when they sent it out. Since then it is looking more impressive and possibly there will be an upgrade later.
When they issued the last advisory I noticed the eye was a little bit open on the western side but, since has closed up.

[CHRISTY]

Guys i cant believe whats going on with CHANCHU Look at the CDO its almost a perfect circle....It kinda reminds of MONICA!

[Derek Ortt]

That is why I say those professional mets are being conservative, there is no way a monster with an eye like that is still a Cat-2. Those people make me mad.

And what scientific basis do you have to mkae that statement? Please let allof the pro mets know what it is we're doing wrong, in a scientific manner. Thanks