Bonnie Advisories

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 03, 2004

...Tropical depression moving closer to the Lesser Antilles...
...Heavy squalls will affect the islands on Wednesday...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St Lucia.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guadeloupe...Martinique
...Dominica...St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius...and for Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday...especially at higher elevations.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude
58.3 west or about 85 miles... 135 km...east-northeast of
Barbados. This is also about 175 miles...280 km...east of St.
Lucia. There are some indications that the center may be trying
to reform a little farther south.

The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours or so. On this track the cyclone will be affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles during the day Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could reach tropical storm strength as it moves
through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. Locally stronger winds
can be expected at higher elevations...especially above 1000 feet.
An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.6 N... 58.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.

[dixiebreeze]

says the 11 p.m. NHC Advisory:

Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 03, 2004


...Tropical depression moving closer to the Lesser Antilles...
...Heavy squalls will affect the islands on Wednesday...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St Lucia.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guadeloupe...Martinique
...Dominica...St. Maarten...Saba...St. Eustatius...and for Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday...especially at higher elevations.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Two was located near latitude 13.6 north...longitude
58.3 west or about 85 miles... 135 km...east-northeast of
Barbados. This is also about 175 miles...280 km...east of St.
Lucia. There are some indications that the center may be trying
to reform a little farther south.

The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours or so. On this track the cyclone will be affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles during the day Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could reach tropical storm strength as it moves
through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. Locally stronger winds
can be expected at higher elevations...especially above 1000 feet.
An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...13.6 N... 58.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Stewart

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like we may have TS Bonnie tomorrow after all, in spite of the many doubters. We'll see what Recon says.

[Rainband]

Local news just said, possible landfall in PR then it should curve out into the atlantic

[dixiebreeze]

Well, Rainband, I sort of doubt that right now. Seems to me it will head farther west before any turn takes place -- a pretty speedy storm at this point.

[Rainband]

Well, Rainband, I sort of doubt that right now. Seems to me it will head farther west before any turn takes place -- a pretty speedy storm at this point.

Don't shoot the messenger

[dixiebreeze]

NEVER!!!

[Guest]

I just saw the news and it looked like TD2 was curving a little bit south not much bit I noticed it. Who knows, I think it will be under the trough, which I think will not be as humongous as forecasters say because if it is true that it is a very rare occassion that a trough and a cold front hit so down south, then what we might be seeing is the beginning of climatic changes that could and most likely will affect hurricanes in the future. What do ya'all think?

[dixiebreeze]

I think we're going to have us a hurricane named Bonnie.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

35 mph? I'ts the worst presentation it has had in 24 hours!

[Guest]

k, but will it hit land?

[Rainband]

NEVER!!!

[rainstorm]

i agree, it looks like an open wave to me. i dont know what they are thinking

[dixiebreeze]

T # still at 2.0/2.0 --- Wonder what Derek is thinking? Are you out there, Derek?

[Agua]

Does it look like an open wave to you Rainstorm? What do you think they're thinking?



[Edit: okay, whoever the mod is that deleted her triple post spoiled the joke] hehehh

[Derek Ortt]

I'm still out there. I'd have given it an N/A as there is no surface center in all liklihood. They likely tracked an MLC in the convection. By doing that, you get that number very easily

[dixiebreeze]

Nice view of two systems churning their way ----- somewhere:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[HURAKAN]

Still the Discussion for TD #2 is unavailable.

[HURAKAN]

I don't like this statement:

Given the relatively fast forward speed of the depression...it is possible that a closed surface circulation may not exist. However...tropical storm force winds can still occur at higher elevations across the islands...especially above 1000 feet.

If no surface circulation exists = no tropical depression exists.

Only the RECON plane will have the answer, I'm still skeptical.

[rainstorm]

thats what i mean, hehe.