ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[artist]

thanks tallywx

[Jason_B]

Just a few outliers taking it to the panhandle, still a strong consensus from Apalachicola to Tampa.

[KWT]

Yeah BAM are probably only good for the first 12-24hrs in this set-up because the synoptics are slowly changing with time.

I wonder just how much longer this west track continues for, of course there are varying degress of west, a 270 west is going to give it more time over water before Cuba then a 282 west.

[caneman]

Yeah caneman, still closeness to the actual time doesn't make a huge difference, I mean look how far away Katrina was when it dived SW compared to the guidence just 36hrs before, only one model picked up on that and that was the GFDL.

What should be noted is there is some slight shift from the models back and forth but the general track is unaltered, a turn to the north, maybe slightly east of north toward west Florida, or maybe eastern panhandle if it goes far enough west.

I agree. we've seen it here many times from Elena, to Irene to Charley. I just don't think generally speaking when you're getting this close that your looking at a big margin of change. Still say anywhere from Appaach down to Ft. Myers. Models have been fairly consistent thus far. Hope if stays away from here due to business concerns. Funny, at one time I was the bring it on type.

[Frank P]

does it not look like the center is just on shore there?

No, what you're seeing in that radar pic is ground clutter from the radar beam. That's not actually a core of precipitation but ground clutter around the radar site. You have to filter that out in your mind.

this loop shows what appears to be the center still south of cuba and moving west

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... axw01a.gif

[tolakram]

Forcast snake:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

My tracking chart


Current forecast:


The next 12 hours of movement should be key as to weather or not Fay brushes Cuba or goes further west.

[Steve]

>>Haaaa, heard that stuff was good, thought it was illegal in the states tho

Legal to possess or drink, just not to sell. (See Pravda on Decatur St. as Absynthe now mostly totally legal in LA).

>>looking forward to the 00z models..my best bet is still the western big bend area

Good common sense track there though I'm not sure I agree. Seeing a shortwave/nose crossing Florida. Earlier this week it appeared that would go down around 90. But it looks like that piece may not provide too much of a tug to me. It's probably going to come from something else as that feature looks transient.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[shaggy]

New bams out... bamd shift to west panhandle

Yep, I saw that earlier and that was what I was referencing about all the BAMM models and others being toward the Panhandle now. We have the NOGAPS, UKMET and all the BAMM models swinging this way.

I find it interesting that the CMC showed the current track very well and was laughed at by some but it was right. It is now one of the ones with the sharpest recurves!

[Steve H.]

Please note that this is not Ivan. The synoptic setup is quite different, and each storm and synoptics has its own signature.

[Ivanhater]

>>Haaaa, heard that stuff was good, thought it was illegal in the states tho

Legal to possess or drink, just not to sell. (See Pravda on Decatur St. as Absynthe now mostly totally legal in LA).

>>looking forward to the 00z models..my best bet is still the western big bend area

Good common sense track there though I'm not sure I agree. Seeing a shortwave/nose crossing Florida. Earlier this week it appeared that would go down around 90. But it looks like that piece may not provide too much of a tug to me. It's probably going to come from something else as that feature looks transient.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Ill be hitting up NOLA soon ...interesting Steve, where are thinking at this point?

[caneman]

Forcast snake:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

My tracking chart


Current forecast:


The next 12 hours of movement should be key as to weather or not Fay brushes Cuba or goes further west.

Boy if it misses that tip of Cuba it'll go in uninterrupted, more time over water and flatter land.

[KWT]

Yeah its going to be a very close call as to whether it hits land on that SE tip of Cuba or whether it keeps over water, either way its going to be fairly close but the longer this westerly motion continues the greater the chances of it staying over the water and therefore longer for it to strengthen, does look pretty decent right now but still not that amazing IMO, needs another 6-12hrs of slow reorganisation before it does anything too drastic I think.

[Dean4Storms]

New bams out... bamd shift to west panhandle

Yep, I saw that earlier and that was what I was referencing about all the BAMM models and others being toward the Panhandle now. We have the NOGAPS, UKMET and all the BAMM models swinging this way.

I find it interesting that the CMC showed the current track very well and was laughed at by some but it was right. It is now one of the ones with the sharpest recurves!

The CMC had its initiation well north of where the center turned out to be in that run, not sure why.

[orion]

A little more clarification on the BAM (beta advection models) models... they are named that because they take into account the beta effect - which deals with the coriolis force/earth's rotation. The S, M, and D on the end of BAM refers to the level that the model uses for its wind average. S for shallow (TS or weak system), M for medium, and D for deep (more intense system). The BAMs are trajectory models. Here is a description of trajectory models from the NHC site:

"Trajectory models are much simpler than dynamical or statistical models as they merely move a TC along a track based on the prevailing flow derived from a separate dynamical model. While trajectory models utilize information from dynamical models to represent the prevailing flow, they do not allow the cyclone to interact with the surrounding atmosphere. Another limitation associated with trajectory models is their reliance on static levels in the atmosphere to represent the prevailing flow. To account for the variation in the prevailing flow with height, multiple versions of the same trajectory model based on varying depths are typically employed."

That's why you are seeing people say not to put too much emphasis on these models for Fay.

[srainhoutx]

>>looking forward to the 00z models..my best bet is still the western big bend area

Good common sense track there though I'm not sure I agree. Seeing a shortwave/nose crossing Florida. Earlier this week it appeared that would go down around 90. But it looks like that piece may not provide too much of a tug to me. It's probably going to come from something else as that feature looks transient.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Good Ob. Big Bend to Ft Walton Beach is not out the question in my "unofficial" humble opinion.

[Steve]

>>Ill be hitting up NOLA soon ...interesting Steve, where are thinking at this point?

Give me a little heads up and I promise we'll crawl home.

I don't know. Apparently my Bahamas/SE FL/SC hit ain't gonna verify - but I'm still sticking with it. Otherwise, unless we're all missing something, I would guess a track within 125-150 miles of the western side of the FL Peninsula. So say something between Naples and maybe Franklin or Gulf Counties if it stayed offshore - probably nailing the Keys on the way up. No idea about intensity which should be a function of track. If it stays over water, stronger, based on the likelihood of great upper support in the Eastern Gulf.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

>>Ill be hitting up NOLA soon ...interesting Steve, where are thinking at this point?

Give me a little heads up and I promise we'll crawl home.

I don't know. Apparently my Bahamas/SE FL/SC hit ain't gonna verify - but I'm still sticking with it. Otherwise, unless we're all missing something, I would guess a track within 125-150 miles of the western side of the FL Peninsula. So say something between Naples and maybe Franklin or Gulf Counties if it stayed offshore - probably nailing the Keys on the way up. No idea about intensity which should be a function of track. If it stays over water, stronger, based on the likelihood of great upper support in the Eastern Gulf.

Steve

Lol will do..yeah thats a safe bet at this point, even the pros are kind of guessing at this point..should start locking in tomorrow evening

[AdamFirst]

It looks like the storm is slowing down and is starting to head west-northwest (or in that general direction)

Would the storm slowing down, aside from additional strengthening over water, make the storm turn a different path to the north because its forecasted turn has been delayed, assuming the ridge/trough/thing has moved more east?

I'm not sure how these whacky ridges and high pressure dealies work.

[lbvbl]

i wouldn't necessarily assume that a SE FL landfall is completely out of the picture. As long as it's in the cone, NHC gives that scenario just as much chance as a more westernly track (like most here are assuming will occur)

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the key to the intensity forecast has three particular things to watch, first is the angle the storm takes in the next 18 hours, and second and perhaps just as important will be how long over water will the storm be after it exits cuba (speed and or angle), and lastly and certainly a wild card does the center reform further SE (under deeper convection) which would give her (at least initially depending on the heading she takes after) enough distance away from the cuban mountains to get going earlier.

right now it is over water sure, but the inflow is crippled on the whole northern side by the sinking air coming down off the mountains to the north. this should remain the case for the next 10 hours or so until fay can clear a longitude of say 77 or so, (where the coast of cuba then opens up more north west (and the mountains "stop") giving her more water and less sinking air on northern side, and then the angle the storm takes over the proceeding hours (after it clears that longitude) will help determine how long this could stay over this enviornment which favors intensity(this assumes no center re-location. I'm personally thinking this will not get going until it perhaps clears cuba (so long as she survives and doesn't take the long way) and then that depends on how fast she is moving and the angle she takes to reach land (distance) as well as the structure she emerges with, obviously tons of uncertainty.

i will be waiting for the recon (is it still on) for late tonite (1 am arrival) to see wether a center re-location is occuring. I just signed back on and have not heard any talk by the pro-mets here as to the chances. Also i am interested in watching the ULL which seems to have stalled to see wether this gives her any SW shear as she approaches about 78 west. so again barring a re-location i don't see her getting her act together any better (than she already has) due to the influence of the mountain to her north for the next several hours.