Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

I know, I know. You don't have to rub it in.

[southerngale]

NWS LCH just issued their afternoon update and aren't throwing out the possibility of winter precip. I was a little surprised that they mentioned the rain/snow line could come as far south as I-10 though. hmmm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

<snippet>
THE FORECAST DILEMMA THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING BECOMES
ONE OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS TO CONTEND WITH. UTILIZED
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPE TECHNIQUES ON MULTIPLE MODELS...AND THE
WORST SCENARIO I ARRIVED AT WAS A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WOODVILLE TEXAS TO OPELOUSAS
LOUISIANA...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE COMING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS AREAWIDE COLD RAIN. AS YOU CAN
SEE...THE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE LARGE...AND AT THIS
TIME...A FORECAST OF DEFINITIVE WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE OR ANY
ACCUMULATION THEREOF IS QUITE DIFFICULT.

GIVEN THIS LOW DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE...OPTED TO CARRY A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
MIX RATHER THAN HANG MY HAT ON ONE TYPE OR THE OTHER...AND NO
ACCUMULATIONS.

FORECAST BEYOND DAY 4 UNCHANGED.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO TX. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S POSSIBLY
UPPER 20S FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY WHICH AGAIN MAY
HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO AFFECT SE TX OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE ON RAIN FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AFTER 12Z THU.
THE EURO MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET) ARE ALL FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
PUSHING IT INTO W TX THU MORNING. THE AMERICAN MODELS (NAM/GFS)
DIG THE TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND ARE SLOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THE NAM AND EURO MODELS...BUT STILL CLOSER
TO THE NAM. MORE CONFIDENCE IS IN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED IT THE BEST SO FAR. AS SUCH...BOOSTED POPS
TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD RAIN AS PRECIP. PRECIP
TYPE STILL A BIT TRICKY FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...ESPECIALLY FRI
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF THERE IS GOING TO BE MIXED
PRECIP...THIS MAY BE THE TIME. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS STILL MORE
LIKELY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH WOULD MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIP. LATER FORECASTS MAY DECIDE ON
A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. THE
NAM SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP MORE THAN THE OTHERS BUT IT HAS A
SLOWER TROUGH EVOLUTION AS WELL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KICK OUT ON
FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS COME A LITTLE MORE
IN LINE AS THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. BY SUNDAY BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH VOER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SE TX. TEMPS NEXT SUN/MON/TUE LOOK TO BE COLDER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. FORECAST WILL GO QUITE A BIT UNDER
GFS FORECASTED TEMPS. GENERALLY THIS CALLS FOR TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

[katheria]

wow someone really dont like the NWS right now
Maybe the flaky models crashed their servers LOL j/k

Gateway Timeout
The following error occurred:

[code=GATEWAY_TIMEOUT] A gateway timeout occurred. The server is unreachable. Retry the request.

[rainman31]

So to snow or not to snow that is the question

[orangeblood]

Can someone please explain the incompetence of the Fort Worth office to not make any statement (SPS, Hazard Outlook, etc.) regarding this upcoming storm? Unbelievable !!

[Ntxw]

Can someone please explain the incompetence of the Fort Worth office to not make any statement (SPS, Hazard Outlook, etc.) regarding this upcoming storm? Unbelievable !!

They are going by the American models. Too much variability therefore they have varying forecast\hazards. Personally I still believe this is an I-20 corridor snowstorm. 1-2 or 3-6 will depend on track and strength. Once this storm is fully onshore we'll have a better hand at it.

[BrokenGlass]

Can someone please explain the incompetence of the Fort Worth office to not make any statement (SPS, Hazard Outlook, etc.) regarding this upcoming storm? Unbelievable !!

It is really stunning. They act like surface temperatures have been in the 70's for the past week, and the warm ground will be a factor. Truth is, when the precip starts, dew points will be in the teens, and surface temps will have peaked around 45 degrees over the previous 72 hours. Common sense tells me that the preconditions are far different from any of the previous events this year, and the models seem to be missing this.

[wxag07]

they do have a HWO out. It doesnt show up on the map if hazardous weather is not expected on Day 1.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/FWD/HWOFWD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 1 INCH...BUT SOME AREAS NORTH OF A LAMPASAS...TO ATHENS LINE
MAY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THE WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[rainman31]

Can someone please explain the incompetence of the Fort Worth office to not make any statement (SPS, Hazard Outlook, etc.) regarding this upcoming storm? Unbelievable !!

It is really stunning. They act like surface temperatures have been in the 70's for the past week, and the warm ground will be a factor. Truth is, when the precip starts, dew points will be in the teens, and surface temps will have peaked around 45 degrees over the previous 72 hours. Common sense tells me that the preconditions are far different from any of the previous events this year, and the models seem to be missing this.

I agree temps have been in the 30's all day today and in the 40's for what it seems like a week now, I think this is going to catch a lot of people by surprise, by them not giving any advisory.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

It was brought up earlier in this thread, but last year, they virtually guaranteed frozen precip....snow storm along with Pete Delkus and most of the other local tv mets and nothing happened. They even thought it was still going to happen day of, there was lots of public criticism about that forecast. So considering the dubious models, I don't blame them for holding back, this is anything but a clear cut winter storm at this point and I want snow as much as anyone. I'm sure warnings will come tomorrow if the models show more stability.

[Texas Snowman]

Can someone please explain the incompetence of the Fort Worth office to not make any statement (SPS, Hazard Outlook, etc.) regarding this upcoming storm? Unbelievable !!

It is really stunning. They act like surface temperatures have been in the 70's for the past week, and the warm ground will be a factor. Truth is, when the precip starts, dew points will be in the teens, and surface temps will have peaked around 45 degrees over the previous 72 hours. Common sense tells me that the preconditions are far different from any of the previous events this year, and the models seem to be missing this.

I agree temps have been in the 30's all day today and in the 40's for what it seems like a week now, I think this is going to catch a lot of people by surprise, by them not giving any advisory.

Didn't make it out of the 30s here in the Red River Valley today.

Maybe my memory is faulty, but it seems like prior to the Christmas Eve blizzard, NWS in Ft. Worth didn't do much in the way of ramping up things until late on 12/23 or early on 12/24. At the time, OKC had been using very strong wording in their forecast products (even in southern Oklahoma near the Red River) for two or three days.

Now I'm not saying that anything big is going to happen, because the models have been all over the place, but what I am saying is that this isn't unprecedented from this particular office either.

In fact, when it comes to winter weather in the Red River Valley where I live, I've generally learned to pay far more attention to what the OKC NWS office is forecasting for Durant, Okla. 20 miles north of where I live than what the Ft. Worth office puts out for Grayson County.

[Ntxw]

The distance and weather between the two offices can very dramatically. When Ft. Worth predicts snow\ice possibilities 4/5 times it doesn't happen simply because we are always on the borderline. Opposite for OKC's office so they are more brave in predicting such things because often it does pan out for them. FW has a big coverage area, weather can very drastically from north to south. What they focus mostly on is the main counties of the metro where the huge populations are imho.

[Texas Snowman]

It was brought up earlier in this thread, but last year, they virtually guaranteed frozen precip....snow storm along with Pete Delkus and most of the other local tv mets and nothing happened. They even thought it was still going to happen day of, there was lots of public criticism about that forecast. So considering the dubious models, I don't blame them for holding back, this is anything but a clear cut winter storm at this point and I want snow as much as anyone. I'm sure warnings will come tomorrow if the models show more stability.

I understand all of that - they don't won't to cry wolf for a metro area of multiple millions. And as I've opined before, the skill set to accurately forecast winter weather probably isn't all that important in being a met in the DFW office - this is severe weather and drought country.

My only thing is that if you're not going to go out on a limb and make a forecast until the last possible second, how can you claim to have a forecast that has or has not verified?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Clouds from the STJ are already beginning to roll into Tx. Is it supposed to rolling in this early?

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: The distance and weather between the two offices can very dramatically. When Ft. Worth predicts snow\ice possibilities 4/5 times it doesn't happen simply because we are always on the borderline. Opposite for OKC's office so they are more brave in predicting such things because often it does pan out for them.

I'm not talking about the 150 miles between Ft. Worth and OKC (whose forecast responsibility zone is pretty large too).

I'm talking about the Red River Valley which is halfway between both spots and at least on the Texas side of the river, a forecast zone that is the responsibility of the Fort Worth office.

And while I respect the difficulties in winter weather forecasting here - it's tough, for sure - that doesn't mean that you should wait until less than 24 hours or less to issue a good forecast either.

Nor should the size of a metropolitan area dictate who gets their best work and attention...or not. I sure hope that isn't the way it works during severe weather events...

My .02 cents worth...now back to regular programming.

[Ntxw]

I understand your concern. Lets hope the models tonight will paint a clearer picture so they can sort things out in time if need be.

As much as we don't like it, it's just the way things work. A lot like phone and cable companies. If there is an emergency you hope that there is phone service going out to your location, but the reality is big phone companies have most of their service and lines in the population centers.

0z nam should be running soon.

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow: I understand your concern. Lets hope the models tonight will paint a clearer picture so they can sort things out in time if need be.

I agree, hope things are clear and concise later tonight.

One thing I forgot to add is now that the Sherman/Denison area (about 50,000 in the two towns) are becoming an extended "bedroom community" for people working in the DFW area, we've got a significant number of people (maybe 1/4 of our work force here) that travels down Hwy. 75 each day. So they need good info too.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

[katheria]

can anyone get to the FW NWS home page?

nevermind

[wxag07]

regarding the christmas eve storm....models had the track of the low well to the north of texas. wfos in kansas had blizzard warnings out and they never saw a flake of snow.

models handled that situation poorly. are they repeating themselves? time will tell.