CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does anyone have the 06Z HWRF model output yet? If we see this model more north, then I think we might have a more solid trend in the long term direction of this storm.

Man i hate when these things goe east of Jamica..Never a good sign for LA east..

[cajungal]

I am watching closely here. I live 60 miles SW of New Orleans just north of Houma. And even a LA/TX border could flood Terrebonne Parish again just like it did for Rita. I am just going to have see the model trends. Remember the trend is your friend or your worse enemy.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Please don't even think that, we could not handle another storm

No way..It would put an end to New Orleans..

[jabman98]

Turned on CNN this morning.Their update for Dean: Tuesday projection has him entering the YC as cat 4

Today Show had the same thing - going right into Yucatan. Not sure if that'll happen, based on latest models. Could shoot the gap instead - which would be bad news for US landfall locations, TX and LA.

[Stormcenter]

Does anyone have the 06Z HWRF model output yet? If we see this model more north, then I think we might have a more solid trend in the long term direction of this storm.

Man i hate when these things goe east of Jamica..Never a good sign for LA east..

The ones to worry about for LA. historically are the ones coming off of Florida (Betsy,Andrew, Katrina). I feel good for LA. with this one so far. It doesn't look good for Texas though right now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171251
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 22 20070817
124400 1425N 06154W 6965 02856 9652 +147 +115 306016 021 023 006 00
124430 1424N 06155W 6968 02866 9692 +125 +125 320035 043 040 006 03
124500 1422N 06157W 6965 02905 9751 +106 +106 308065 071 067 009 03
124530 1421N 06157W 6974 02933 9790 +109 +109 296063 064 067 010 03
124600 1420N 06159W 6980 02953 9819 +113 +084 298063 065 062 007 00
124630 1419N 06200W 6982 02968 9854 +101 +101 302059 061 056 007 03
124700 1418N 06201W 6970 02998 9890 +086 +086 301056 060 054 033 03
124730 1417N 06202W 6976 03005 9990 +078 +999 304052 054 054 016 05
124800 1416N 06204W 6980 03016 9990 +076 +999 301047 048 054 017 05
124830 1415N 06205W 6967 03040 9990 +073 +999 297046 048 053 018 01
124900 1413N 06206W 6965 03059 9941 +089 +089 301045 046 050 047 03
124930 1412N 06207W 6961 03073 9941 +100 +100 302042 043 046 008 00
125000 1411N 06208W 6973 03066 9953 +097 +097 307040 042 043 008 00
125030 1411N 06208W 6973 03066 9967 +093 +093 312039 039 042 008 00
125100 1408N 06211W 6972 03082 9971 +095 +095 315037 037 040 007 00
125130 1407N 06212W 6971 03090 9986 +091 +091 310035 036 038 007 00
125200 1406N 06213W 6976 03087 9986 +094 +091 312031 033 037 007 00
125230 1405N 06215W 6976 03092 9989 +095 +095 314028 029 037 026 00
125300 1403N 06216W 6975 03097 9999 +090 +090 314029 030 037 008 00
125330 1402N 06217W 6975 03100 0003 +092 +089 319030 030 036 007 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:51Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 22
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:44:00 14.42N 61.90W 696.5 mb 2,856 m 965.2 mb From 306° (NW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 23 kts 6 mm/hr
12:44:30 14.40N 61.92W 696.8 mb 2,866 m 969.2 mb From 320° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 40 kts* 6 mm/hr*
12:45:00 14.37N 61.95W 696.5 mb 2,905 m 975.1 mb From 308° (NW) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 67 kts* 9 mm/hr*
12:45:30 14.35N 61.95W 697.4 mb 2,933 m 979.0 mb From 296° (WNW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 67 kts* 10 mm/hr*
12:46:00 14.33N 61.98W 698.0 mb 2,953 m 981.9 mb From 298° (WNW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 62 kts 7 mm/hr
12:46:30 14.32N 62.00W 698.2 mb 2,968 m 985.4 mb From 302° (WNW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 56 kts* 7 mm/hr*
12:47:00 14.30N 62.02W 697.0 mb 2,998 m 989.0 mb From 301° (WNW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 54 kts* 33 mm/hr*
12:47:30 14.28N 62.03W 697.6 mb 3,005 m - From 304° (NW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 54 kts* 16 mm/hr*
12:48:00 14.27N 62.07W 698.0 mb 3,016 m - From 301° (WNW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 54 kts* 17 mm/hr*
12:48:30 14.25N 62.08W 696.7 mb 3,040 m - From 297° (WNW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 53 kts 18 mm/hr
12:49:00 14.22N 62.10W 696.5 mb 3,059 m 994.1 mb From 301° (WNW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 50 kts* 47 mm/hr*
12:49:30 14.20N 62.12W 696.1 mb 3,073 m 994.1 mb From 302° (WNW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 46 kts 8 mm/hr
12:50:00 14.18N 62.13W 697.3 mb 3,066 m 995.3 mb From 307° (NW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 43 kts 8 mm/hr
12:50:30 14.18N 62.13W 697.3 mb 3,066 m 996.7 mb From 312° (NW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 42 kts 8 mm/hr
12:51:00 14.13N 62.18W 697.2 mb 3,082 m 997.1 mb From 315° (NW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 40 kts 7 mm/hr
12:51:30 14.12N 62.20W 697.1 mb 3,090 m 998.6 mb From 310° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 38 kts 7 mm/hr
12:52:00 14.10N 62.22W 697.6 mb 3,087 m 998.6 mb From 312° (NW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 37 kts 7 mm/hr
12:52:30 14.08N 62.25W 697.6 mb 3,092 m 998.9 mb From 314° (NW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 37 kts 26 mm/hr
12:53:00 14.05N 62.27W 697.5 mb 3,097 m 999.9 mb From 314° (NW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 37 kts 8 mm/hr
12:53:30 14.03N 62.28W 697.5 mb 3,100 m 1000.3 mb From 319° (NW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 36 kts 7 mm/hr
At 12:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 57 miles (91 km) to the WSW (257°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).
At 12:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 87 miles (140 km) to the W (272°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .27c-62.28

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[HURAKAN]

NEW:

[Weatherfreak14]

I can see an eye opening and you can see the eyewall very well also.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1253 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070817 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070817 1200 070818 0000 070818 1200 070819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 61.7W 15.2N 66.0W 15.8N 69.8W 16.1N 73.0W
BAMD 14.4N 61.7W 15.1N 64.9W 15.8N 68.0W 16.7N 71.1W
BAMM 14.4N 61.7W 15.1N 65.3W 15.7N 68.8W 16.4N 71.9W
LBAR 14.4N 61.7W 15.0N 65.3W 15.7N 69.0W 16.5N 72.4W
SHIP 90KTS 98KTS 107KTS 114KTS
DSHP 90KTS 98KTS 107KTS 114KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070819 1200 070820 1200 070821 1200 070822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 76.0W 18.4N 81.3W 21.2N 87.4W 24.2N 93.5W
BAMD 17.3N 74.1W 18.8N 80.4W 20.8N 86.9W 23.5N 93.2W
BAMM 16.9N 74.9W 18.5N 80.9W 20.7N 87.2W 23.6N 93.4W
LBAR 17.5N 75.9W 19.4N 82.5W 20.8N 88.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 117KTS 123KTS 126KTS 119KTS
DSHP 117KTS 123KTS 88KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 61.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 57.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 53.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 160NM

[HURAKAN]

Northern Mexico, TX, and LA: KEEP AN EYE ON THIS!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting Discussion from this morning eh...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171301
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 23 20070817
125400 1401N 06218W 6973 03109 0004 +095 +089 325031 032 033 007 00
125430 1400N 06220W 6977 03108 0005 +097 +086 325027 028 032 006 00
125500 1358N 06221W 6976 03112 0014 +093 +084 322026 027 031 007 00
125530 1357N 06222W 6973 03113 0020 +091 +080 319025 026 030 006 00
125600 1356N 06224W 6976 03117 0023 +090 +086 321024 025 030 006 00
125630 1354N 06225W 6973 03122 0025 +090 +090 327026 027 029 006 00
125700 1353N 06226W 6975 03121 0028 +089 +089 326027 027 026 006 00
125730 1352N 06227W 6976 03123 0048 +076 +076 322025 026 027 007 00
125800 1351N 06229W 6974 03128 0038 +086 +086 318021 022 026 007 00
125830 1349N 06230W 6974 03127 0029 +093 +093 308022 022 025 007 00
125900 1348N 06231W 6975 03128 0029 +094 +093 313021 021 022 006 00
125930 1347N 06233W 6975 03130 0031 +093 +090 314021 021 019 005 00
130000 1345N 06234W 6976 03131 0033 +094 +092 316020 021 022 006 00
130030 1344N 06235W 6972 03135 0049 +083 +083 323020 021 027 013 00
130100 1343N 06236W 6977 03133 0065 +068 +068 315023 024 033 017 05
130130 1342N 06238W 6975 03135 0074 +065 +065 301022 024 034 045 05
130200 1340N 06239W 6975 03135 0068 +069 +069 314019 020 033 014 05
130230 1339N 06240W 6975 03137 0053 +086 +086 323019 019 027 008 00
130300 1338N 06242W 6973 03143 0062 +079 +079 321018 019 021 008 00
130330 1337N 06243W 6973 03143 0080 +067 +067 333015 018 020 008 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 13:01Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 23
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:54:00 14.02N 62.30W 697.3 mb 3,109 m 1000.4 mb From 325° (NW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 33 kts 7 mm/hr
12:54:30 14.00N 62.33W 697.7 mb 3,108 m 1000.5 mb From 325° (NW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
12:55:00 13.97N 62.35W 697.6 mb 3,112 m 1001.4 mb From 322° (NW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 31 kts 7 mm/hr
12:55:30 13.95N 62.37W 697.3 mb 3,113 m 1002.0 mb From 319° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:56:00 13.93N 62.40W 697.6 mb 3,117 m 1002.3 mb From 321° (NW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
12:56:30 13.90N 62.42W 697.3 mb 3,122 m 1002.5 mb From 327° (NNW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
12:57:00 13.88N 62.43W 697.5 mb 3,121 m 1002.8 mb From 326° (NW/NNW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 26 kts 6 mm/hr
12:57:30 13.87N 62.45W 697.6 mb 3,123 m 1004.8 mb From 322° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 27 kts 7 mm/hr
12:58:00 13.85N 62.48W 697.4 mb 3,128 m 1003.8 mb From 318° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 26 kts 7 mm/hr
12:58:30 13.82N 62.50W 697.4 mb 3,127 m 1002.9 mb From 308° (NW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 25 kts 7 mm/hr
12:59:00 13.80N 62.52W 697.5 mb 3,128 m 1002.9 mb From 313° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 22 kts 6 mm/hr
12:59:30 13.78N 62.55W 697.5 mb 3,130 m 1003.1 mb From 314° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 19 kts 5 mm/hr
13:00:00 13.75N 62.57W 697.6 mb 3,131 m 1003.3 mb From 316° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 22 kts 6 mm/hr
13:00:30 13.73N 62.58W 697.2 mb 3,135 m 1004.9 mb From 323° (NW) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 27 kts 13 mm/hr
13:01:00 13.72N 62.60W 697.7 mb 3,133 m 1006.5 mb From 315° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 33 kts* 17 mm/hr*
13:01:30 13.70N 62.63W 697.5 mb 3,135 m 1007.4 mb From 301° (WNW) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 34 kts* 45 mm/hr*
13:02:00 13.67N 62.65W 697.5 mb 3,135 m 1006.8 mb From 314° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 33 kts* 14 mm/hr*
13:02:30 13.65N 62.67W 697.5 mb 3,137 m 1005.3 mb From 323° (NW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 27 kts 8 mm/hr
13:03:00 13.63N 62.70W 697.3 mb 3,143 m 1006.2 mb From 321° (NW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 21 kts 8 mm/hr
13:03:30 13.62N 62.72W 697.3 mb 3,143 m 1008.0 mb From 333° (NNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 20 kts 8 mm/hr
At 12:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 88 miles (142 km) to the W (271°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.
At 13:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 102 miles (164 km) to the WNW (287°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .70c-62.72

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

Still awaiting vortex.

[O Town]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Interesting Discussion from this morning eh...

Bigtime

[Chris_in_Tampa]

6Z HWRF:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[abajan]

...As at 7.00 am this morning, the official all clear has been given to Barbados. This means that all Barbadians should start the process of returning to their normal routine of a Friday morning.

It is still expected to be a bit windy and some occasional showers. Few reports of some fallen trees which temporarily blocked some roads , but they are now cleared...

That's correct.

As stated above, it's windy and we did indeed have showers (some heavy, with accompanying strong gusts of wind). However things are gradually improving and as I type, the sun is beginning to shine. This will therefore be my final report, unless DEAN decides to do something totally unforeseen like that crazy west-to-east action performed by LENNY (who can forget that wacko Lenny? LOL) some years ago.

Once again, thanks for all your wellwishes and I'll see you all in the other S2K threads.

[Sabanic]

Does anyone have the 06Z HWRF model output yet? If we see this model more north, then I think we might have a more solid trend in the long term direction of this storm.

Man i hate when these things goe east of Jamica..Never a good sign for LA east..

The ones to worry about for LA. historically are the ones coming off of Florida (Betsy,Andrew, Katrina). I feel good for LA. with this one so far. It doesn't look good for Texas though right now.

I'll bet you the house the folks in LA do not feel as you do though

[stormhorn]

I have had a gut feeling that Dean was going to trend more North for the last several days. The bee line into Mexico just didn't seem right to me (We're talking gut here). Once in GOM it seems to as of recent years make landfall East of the projected path. We'll see...

Janet

[Sabanic]

More & more to the North & East . . . . Oh boy . . .

[cycloneye]

That is good news about nothing bad occuring in that beautiful island.