Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
radar is showing more precipitation coming up from the south.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:Just got the email. Keller is going to stay closed tomorrow. A little surprised since I bet roads will be fine by 10 a.m. based on current forecasts. Maybe earlier.
Maybe they're not taking any chances.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- somethingfunny
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ColdFusion wrote:opticsguy wrote:Just looked out side (N of McKinney). Everything is wet and most of the ice is gone. 27 degrees, but the rain that came down was warm enough to melt most everything.
I thought it was raining here, but it's just water running off from the ice on the roof going thru a pretty rapid melting. Most roofs on my street are almost ice free now.
My front sidewalk and driveway are almost clear from ice as well. I was all under a fairly think sheet of compacted sleet when I went to bed last night. I don't have a thermometer, but finding it hard to believe we are below 30 with this kind of thaw occuring, but cant say for sure.
Not what I expected today, but I'll take it.
I might even be able to make it to the liquor store in a little bit
Same here in McKinney, tree branches and bushes and vehicles that were cased in ice last night are just wet now. Temperature in the mid-20s but I guess the raindrops and the sunlight are warm enough to prevent the major ice storm here.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
txtwister78 wrote:Crazy morning from SA to AUS with ice and power outages. Worst of it over there. Despite the light freezing rain up in DFW this morning, it appears so far, they have dodged the worst of it for now. Latest HRRR and 3k NAM warms temps just at or above freezing by 6 AM tomorrow for most locations. As mentioned yesterday hopefully that trend occurs.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/dallas/t2m_f/1675267200/1675332000-Ef5YxdeG0CA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/dallas/t2m_f/1675252800/1675339200-JRQ7HV7qpOI.png
I just don’t see how we can trust the HRRR right now, it’s still 2-3 F too warm every single run
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
somethingfunny wrote:ColdFusion wrote:opticsguy wrote:Just looked out side (N of McKinney). Everything is wet and most of the ice is gone. 27 degrees, but the rain that came down was warm enough to melt most everything.
I thought it was raining here, but it's just water running off from the ice on the roof going thru a pretty rapid melting. Most roofs on my street are almost ice free now.
My front sidewalk and driveway are almost clear from ice as well. I was all under a fairly think sheet of compacted sleet when I went to bed last night. I don't have a thermometer, but finding it hard to believe we are below 30 with this kind of thaw occuring, but cant say for sure.
Not what I expected today, but I'll take it.
I might even be able to make it to the liquor store in a little bit
Same here in McKinney, tree branches and bushes and vehicles that were cased in ice last night are just wet now. Temperature in the mid-20s but I guess the raindrops and the sunlight are warm enough to prevent the major ice storm here.
Not the case here, streets and rooftops still covered though not 100%
We stay below freezing so we will have issues with any precipitation that comes, especially over night and into tomorrow morning. Most bus barns will make call by 6am on whether it's safe to run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
somethingfunny wrote:ColdFusion wrote:opticsguy wrote:Just looked out side (N of McKinney). Everything is wet and most of the ice is gone. 27 degrees, but the rain that came down was warm enough to melt most everything.
I thought it was raining here, but it's just water running off from the ice on the roof going thru a pretty rapid melting. Most roofs on my street are almost ice free now.
My front sidewalk and driveway are almost clear from ice as well. I was all under a fairly think sheet of compacted sleet when I went to bed last night. I don't have a thermometer, but finding it hard to believe we are below 30 with this kind of thaw occuring, but cant say for sure.
Not what I expected today, but I'll take it.
I might even be able to make it to the liquor store in a little bit
Same here in McKinney, tree branches and bushes and vehicles that were cased in ice last night are just wet now. Temperature in the mid-20s but I guess the raindrops and the sunlight are warm enough to prevent the major ice storm here.
Daylight hours do wonders on ice/snow regardless of temps (unless well below freezing). It’s when the sun goes down that issues start back up again.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Crazy morning from SA to AUS with ice and power outages. Worst of it over there. Despite the light freezing rain up in DFW this morning, it appears so far, they have dodged the worst of it for now. Latest HRRR and 3k NAM warms temps just at or above freezing by 6 AM tomorrow for most locations. As mentioned yesterday hopefully that trend occurs.
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/dallas/t2m_f/1675267200/1675332000-Ef5YxdeG0CA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/dallas/t2m_f/1675252800/1675339200-JRQ7HV7qpOI.png
I just don’t see how we can trust the HRRR right now, it’s still 2-3 F too warm every single run
Well, the good news is it has some support from other model guidance as well (NAM, RAP and ARW).
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
What actually falls is extremely weak vs what the radar is showing. This is the kind of stuff that falls when the radar is showing nothing.
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- gboudx
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Its light rain here in Rockwall with a healthy thaw happening from the rooftops and street. Temp shows 30 and rising.
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
DFW up to 30F while most other locations are 28-29F
Currently lite freezing rain at house.
Currently lite freezing rain at house.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
By the airport the sleet crunch is gone. Now it's a glaze of ice over it.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Been away skiing and not on my mac at all. I missed 50 pages or so the last few days, wishing you all the best. Hope you guys are all staying safe.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Well, unfortunately, it's freezing rain now. No pingers heard anymore.
Roofs are still covered in sleet but starting to melt. Icicles forming on neighbor's solar panels.
I think it will still take a long time for any significant accumulation, but not great, especially if it continues tonight.
Roofs are still covered in sleet but starting to melt. Icicles forming on neighbor's solar panels.
I think it will still take a long time for any significant accumulation, but not great, especially if it continues tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Quixotic wrote:Hope I’m right and this ends up busting.
Yes sleet was fun, freezing rain isn't that interesting. Looks just like rain.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Quixotic wrote:Hope I’m right and this ends up busting.
Looks like that right now. Seems like hot water is falling from the sky because it’s not freezing and taking all the ice with it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Gotwood wrote:Quixotic wrote:Hope I’m right and this ends up busting.
Looks like that right now. Seems like hot water is falling from the sky because it’s not freezing and taking all the ice with it.
You have to consider though, it doesn't mean the water isn't freezing. The sleet by nature is colder than the rain before it freezes, thus the liquid melts some of the sleet. It's about accretion with the ZR, slow freeze.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Gotwood wrote:Quixotic wrote:Hope I’m right and this ends up busting.
Looks like that right now. Seems like hot water is falling from the sky because it’s not freezing and taking all the ice with it.
You have to consider though, it doesn't mean the water isn't freezing. The sleet by nature is colder than the rain before it freezes, thus the liquid melts some of the sleet. It's about accretion with the ZR, slow freeze.
I agree but it isn’t even sticking fast to cars or anything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Gotwood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Gotwood wrote:Looks like that right now. Seems like hot water is falling from the sky because it’s not freezing and taking all the ice with it.
You have to consider though, it doesn't mean the water isn't freezing. The sleet by nature is colder than the rain before it freezes, thus the liquid melts some of the sleet. It's about accretion with the ZR, slow freeze.
I agree but it isn’t even sticking fast to cars or anything.
It's not supposed to. It's unfrozen water, it's slow. This is why I've said freezing rain isn't visually interesting.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/210/
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Quixotic wrote:Hope I’m right and this ends up busting.
Yes sleet was fun, freezing rain isn't that interesting. Looks just like rain.
I remember the 78 (79)? Ice storm in Dallas. We had 10 trees and lost 7 of them. Couldn’t go outside because all the downed power lines. 6 days without power, 8 people in the house and my father was about to go Jack Torrance on us. I don’t ever want that again.
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