ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

this storm is going to absolutely BOMB before it reaches Cuba...Cat 4 in the making? Why? has all of the ingredients, low shear, warm water, no land to cross over until Cuba, etc.......Major in the making.

CVZ, there is nothing that recon is finding that shows its even a hurricane or going through any rapid intensification. Its interacting with the trough, it may not strengthen much in the 12 hours or so.

That's why I said BEFORE it reaches cuba, but I agree, probably not much in the next few hours or so.....Remember though, when this first got going, it went from nothing to a hurricane in about a one day.(and the conditions weren't perfect then either). It does not take long...once the interaction of the trough is lessened, RI will be in the works....

[El Nino]

29/1745 UTC 18.7N 79.2W T4.0/4.0 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

So, Hurricane Gustav is back ... with vengeance ?

[mvtrucking]

29/1745 UTC 18.7N 79.2W T4.0/4.0 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

Doesn't 4.0 = hurricane status usually?

[pablolopez26]

My humble non-professional worthless opinion is that Gustav will hit the Tx/La border. And Houston will feel some of its effects.

[BigB0882]

G4 flight is out...2 drops so far....Looks like the 588dm ridge extend to just west of Key west so far....Winds at 250 are generally out of the SSW at 25kts.

Anyone care to translate?

[HURAKAN]

One picture, 1K words.

[Scorpion]

Wow it looks great now with the eye popping out.

[Brent]

No way that is not a hurricane

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing for sure, due to the large size of it, Cuba will hardly touch it(as long as it doesn't go over the real meaty part of it).... When Gustav was small, I remember a couple of the discussions referring to the tiny size of Gustav being the reason that it was disrupted so much over land....Well, not so tiny anymore,,,,,, sooo much less disruption.

[carversteve]

One picture, 1K words.

Can anyone say...eye see you...looking good

[HURAKAN]

190230 1907N 07857W 6962 03037 9938 +074 +074 157069 072 064 010 00
190300 1906N 07858W 6962 03028 9931 +074 +074 158069 070 063 012 00
190330 1905N 07859W 6972 03014 9920 +077 +077 156066 067 066 014 00
190400 1904N 07900W 6970 03007 9914 +076 +076 157065 066 072 025 00
190430 1903N 07902W 6974 02998 9901 +078 +078 158060 063 076 042 00
190500 1902N 07903W 6951 03017 9895 +078 +078 166062 064 079 041 00
190630 1900N 07907W 6972 02974 9836 +109 +090 166041 049 062 010 00

Hurricane anyone?

[LAwxrgal]

One picture, 1K words.

Peekaboo!

[RL3AO]

Look at that last ob. 983.6mb and still 49kt wind. Pressure is near or below 980mb.

[ConvergenceZone]

190230 1907N 07857W 6962 03037 9938 +074 +074 157069 072 064 010 00
190300 1906N 07858W 6962 03028 9931 +074 +074 158069 070 063 012 00
190330 1905N 07859W 6972 03014 9920 +077 +077 156066 067 066 014 00
190400 1904N 07900W 6970 03007 9914 +076 +076 157065 066 072 025 00
190430 1903N 07902W 6974 02998 9901 +078 +078 158060 063 076 042 00
190500 1902N 07903W 6951 03017 9895 +078 +078 166062 064 079 041 00
190530 1901N 07904W 6976 02986 9891 +079 +079 183053 057 075 023 03
190600 1900N 07905W 6963 02999 9857 +099 +090 181052 053 066 013 03
190630 1900N 07907W 6972 02974 9836 +109 +090 166041 049 062 010 00

Hurricane anyone?

absolutely!!!....Nice to see the eye open up...Wow, I didn't realize it was that far from Jamaica already.

[WmE]

Does anybody smell a special advisory?

[bostonseminole]

190230 1907N 07857W 6962 03037 9938 +074 +074 157069 072 064 010 00

[Brent]

Does anybody smell a special advisory?

I don't know about that, maybe a TCU. It's not like it wasn't expected to become a hurricane.

[terrapintransit]

URNT15 KNHC 291907
AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 HDOB 04 20080829
185700 1920N 07844W 6968 03073 9986 +073 +073 141056 058 055 015 00
185730 1918N 07845W 6960 03080 9994 +065 +065 142059 065 057 010 00
185800 1917N 07846W 6967 03069 9988 +068 +068 147067 068 057 014 00
185830 1916N 07848W 6972 03059 9977 +073 +073 149066 067 057 013 00
185900 1915N 07849W 6961 03070 9967 +077 +077 147063 064 057 017 00
185930 1914N 07850W 6966 03059 9969 +073 +073 143064 064 060 014 00
190000 1913N 07851W 6967 03057 9953 +082 +082 141063 064 057 009 00
190030 1912N 07852W 6965 03055 9948 +083 +083 140065 066 059 006 00
190100 1910N 07854W 6967 03048 9950 +079 +079 141063 064 062 006 00
190130 1909N 07855W 6967 03043 9942 +080 +080 145064 066 061 007 00
190200 1908N 07856W 6967 03036 9942 +074 +074 150065 067 062 012 00
190230 1907N 07857W 6962 03037 9938 +074 +074 157069 072 064 010 00
190300 1906N 07858W 6962 03028 9931 +074 +074 158069 070 063 012 00
190330 1905N 07859W 6972 03014 9920 +077 +077 156066 067 066 014 00
190400 1904N 07900W 6970 03007 9914 +076 +076 157065 066 072 025 00
190430 1903N 07902W 6974 02998 9901 +078 +078 158060 063 076 042 00
190500 1902N 07903W 6951 03017 9895 +078 +078 166062 064 079 041 00
190530 1901N 07904W 6976 02986 9891 +079 +079 183053 057 075 023 03
190600 1900N 07905W 6963 02999 9857 +099 +090 181052 053 066 013 03
190630 1900N 07907W 6972 02974 9836 +109 +090 166041 049 062 010 00
$$


Hurricane Gustav has arrived.
72 kt FL, 79 kt SFMR

Look who just showed up.........

[Just Joshing You]

Plenty of 75+ SFMR readings.

[Cyclenall]

I notice how rapid the eye is clearing out. Let's see how fast Gustav can bomb.

EDIT: Of course, now offically a hurricane even though it was one most likely hours back.