ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

No debating where the center is, this is not a 1005mb low, its a 989 high end TS and recon has got it. The IR apperence isn't a classic yet, still looks lopsided to me but recon is suggesting an eye is forming so its starting to get more organised, still a solid 6-9hrs away though till it starts to really pull things out of the bag IMO.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Want to say"I'm tired, this thing will never get it's act together", but likely sooner than later it will.

[GCANE]

Isaac is finally getting a good wrap of unstable air around him.

CAPE = 2000 in the core.

2500 on the west and south quads.

3000 to the NE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[rainstorm]

And some that don't - many parts of Florida are saturated.

same here in virginia. total saturation. thats why i hope it moves as far west as possible.

[mahi1720]

I posted yesterday that it was going to bomb out. I of course was wrong. The way the CDO popped was amazing. I was shocked this morning to see it was still a TS. It really makes me appreciate what it takes to sustain a 4 or 5.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I think winds should go up at 8. I'm probably wrong. Anybody?

[tailgater]

Isaac is finally getting a good wrap of unstable air around him.

CAPE = 2000 in the core.

2500 on the west and south quads.

3000 to the NE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

I thought it looked better lately on the south side, any idea what it was around 12hrs ago?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Stays at 65mph...again.It's dropped 7mb and it's still 65mph?

[rainstorm]

Isaac is finally getting a good wrap of unstable air around him.

CAPE = 2000 in the core.

2500 on the west and south quads.

3000 to the NE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

good info, thanks.

[HurrMark]

Stays at 65mph...again.It's dropped 7mb and it's still 65mph?

It might take some time for the winds to react. I thought it would be bumped a little higher but I guess recon has not found winds that were reflective of a stronger storm.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There have not been winds found by recon to support anything higher in intensity, yet.

[Lane]

It looks like from the last couple frames of the AVN, that the north quad is being pulled north. Does anyone else that or do I need more coffee? Or possible expansion of center?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Stays at 65mph...again.It's dropped 7mb and it's still 65mph?

It might take some time for the winds to react. I thought it would be bumped a little higher but I guess recon has not found winds that were reflective of a stronger storm.

Is 12 hours long enough? 12 hours ago it was 995mb.

[HurrMark]

Stays at 65mph...again.It's dropped 7mb and it's still 65mph?

It might take some time for the winds to react. I thought it would be bumped a little higher but I guess recon has not found winds that were reflective of a stronger storm.

Is 12 hours long enough? 12 hours ago it was 995mb.

Actually, 12 hours ago it was at 991, so it only dropped 3 mb. Still, I think this is the start of steadier deepening (not official).

[GCANE]

Isaac is finally getting a good wrap of unstable air around him.

CAPE = 2000 in the core.

2500 on the west and south quads.

3000 to the NE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

I thought it looked better lately on the south side, any idea what it was around 12hrs ago?

12 hrs ago, all the unstable air was to his NW.

He is now in it.

[Kory]

It looks like from the last couple frames of the AVN, that the north quad is being pulled north. Does anyone else that or do I need more coffee? Or possible expansion of center?

The storms are just expanding, so it gives it the appearance that it is getting pulled north. There is still a ridge in place north of the system, so it's not going to get pulled that far north.

[KWT]

The problem is there is some dry air still coming into the E.quadrant, typically the stronger side. This system maybe one of those that requires a deeper pressure than normal to reach certain wind speeds, unless that eases up.

[iorange55]

(this is coming from someone who really only knows about winter weather)

But, I do follow the tropical systems and it looks to me like Isaac is kind of "on track" intensity-wise...at least based on the official track it seems. The track has been calling for it to become a weak Cat 1 today, right? It looks like it will probably do that, and grow a little bit more. I think a strong Cat 1 when it hits the coast has been and continues to be the most reasonable forecast.

[Hyperstorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast. Refer to the NHC for official information.

Remember everyone, Isaac was NOT supposed to strengthen significantly last night/early today. The main show was always late today through tomorrow night/early Wednesday. The EURO model from yesterday at 12z was showing this at 988 mb AT THIS HOUR (It's 989 according to Recon), so we're very close to that forecast.

IF in about 12 hours, this system shows NO signs of strengthening significantly, then we can assume that it's not going to, BUT I personally do see this system intensifying quite quickly starting tonight, especially if an eye starts to show up on IR.

When that eye pops out, ALL bets are off...as that usually signifies a significant pressure drop...

[KWT]

Spot on Hyperstorm, its pretty much on track right now in terms of strengthening.

I do think the E.Quadrant looks a little bare still and unless that also changes I've got some doubts about just how quick the strengthening will occur, but these things can change in a matter of hours.