Texas Winter 2024-2025

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro back on board! Trended toward the ICON/ CMC a little bit

Wow, an all snow event for LA too.

[wxman22]

[HockeyTx82]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro back on board! Trended toward the ICON/ CMC a little bit

A lot closer to its previous runs than the 6z was. Doesn't quite get far enough west to capture the ULL of the coast, but gets much closer. Hopefully this reversal of last night's trend continues. Still such a high degree of variability from run to run.

[cheezyWXguy]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

What does ChatGPT recommend for managing emotions when staring at weather models?

[Portastorm]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

Lock the thread?! No way! We mods are running a pool on how many pages this thread will end up with. LOL. (kidding, just kidding).

[Tireman4]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

Lock the thread?! No way! We mods are running a pool on how many pages this thread will end up with. LOL. (kidding, just kidding).

I have 500, Sir.

[mcheer23]

None of the models is likely handling next week's upper flow pattern well. Don't trust any run - yet.

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

What does ChatGPT recommend for managing emotions when staring at weather models?

It’s natural to feel a range of emotions when reviewing weather models, especially during severe weather events. Here are some strategies to help you stay grounded:

1. Focus on What You Can Control
• Acknowledge that you can’t change the weather, but you can control your preparedness. Channel your energy into making a safety plan and gathering supplies.

2. Take Breaks
• Limit how often you check models or forecasts. Constant monitoring can heighten anxiety. Set specific times to check for updates.

3. Prioritize Reliable Sources
• Stick to official forecasts from trusted sources (e.g., National Weather Service). Overanalyzing uncertain or conflicting model data can lead to unnecessary stress.

4. Ground Yourself in Facts
• Weather models are not certainties; they provide probabilities. Remind yourself that meteorologists use multiple tools to refine predictions.

5. Practice Stress-Relief Techniques
• Deep breathing, meditation, or even light exercise can help reduce anxiety when emotions feel overwhelming.

6. Shift Your Focus
• Engage in a calming activity like reading, listening to music, or spending time with loved ones to distract yourself from overthinking.

7. Talk About Your Concerns
• Share your thoughts with someone you trust. Talking it out can help you process emotions and put things in perspective.

8. Prepare Early
• If you’re in a storm’s potential path, taking early action (like assembling an emergency kit or securing your property) can provide peace of mind.

Would you like to talk through what you’re seeing in the models? Sometimes breaking it down can help reduce the emotional impact.

[JDawg512]

In an hour, that being said i definitely am encouraged by the GFS and the other model runs today so far, GFS has a burst of snow in se texas, while we got a long ways to go, their are definitely some improvements worth noted

If it doesn't ice or snow in Austin next week, I'm holding you personally responsible strat!

You can add me to that list... I'm team liquid!!! I'll set up a giant heat lamp on top of the Rain Cave...

[cheezyWXguy]

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

What does ChatGPT recommend for managing emotions when staring at weather models?

It’s natural to feel a range of emotions when reviewing weather models, especially during severe weather events. Here are some strategies to help you stay grounded:

1. Focus on What You Can Control
• Acknowledge that you can’t change the weather, but you can control your preparedness. Channel your energy into making a safety plan and gathering supplies.

2. Take Breaks
• Limit how often you check models or forecasts. Constant monitoring can heighten anxiety. Set specific times to check for updates.

3. Prioritize Reliable Sources
• Stick to official forecasts from trusted sources (e.g., National Weather Service). Overanalyzing uncertain or conflicting model data can lead to unnecessary stress.

4. Ground Yourself in Facts
• Weather models are not certainties; they provide probabilities. Remind yourself that meteorologists use multiple tools to refine predictions.

5. Practice Stress-Relief Techniques
• Deep breathing, meditation, or even light exercise can help reduce anxiety when emotions feel overwhelming.

6. Shift Your Focus
• Engage in a calming activity like reading, listening to music, or spending time with loved ones to distract yourself from overthinking.

7. Talk About Your Concerns
• Share your thoughts with someone you trust. Talking it out can help you process emotions and put things in perspective.

8. Prepare Early
• If you’re in a storm’s potential path, taking early action (like assembling an emergency kit or securing your property) can provide peace of mind.

Would you like to talk through what you’re seeing in the models? Sometimes breaking it down can help reduce the emotional impact.

"Take Breaks" that's a good one

[HockeyTx82]

Then moderators let's lock the thread until this weekend so we can just stop wasting our emotions, I'm running out!!!!

What does ChatGPT recommend for managing emotions when staring at weather models?

It’s natural to feel a range of emotions when reviewing weather models, especially during severe weather events. Here are some strategies to help you stay grounded:

1. Focus on What You Can Control
• Acknowledge that you can’t change the weather, but you can control your preparedness. Channel your energy into making a safety plan and gathering supplies.

2. Take Breaks
• Limit how often you check models or forecasts. Constant monitoring can heighten anxiety. Set specific times to check for updates.

3. Prioritize Reliable Sources
• Stick to official forecasts from trusted sources (e.g., National Weather Service). Overanalyzing uncertain or conflicting model data can lead to unnecessary stress.

4. Ground Yourself in Facts
• Weather models are not certainties; they provide probabilities. Remind yourself that meteorologists use multiple tools to refine predictions.

5. Practice Stress-Relief Techniques
• Deep breathing, meditation, or even light exercise can help reduce anxiety when emotions feel overwhelming.

6. Shift Your Focus
• Engage in a calming activity like reading, listening to music, or spending time with loved ones to distract yourself from overthinking.

7. Talk About Your Concerns
• Share your thoughts with someone you trust. Talking it out can help you process emotions and put things in perspective.

8. Prepare Early
• If you’re in a storm’s potential path, taking early action (like assembling an emergency kit or securing your property) can provide peace of mind.

Would you like to talk through what you’re seeing in the models? Sometimes breaking it down can help reduce the emotional impact.

But see since you have the professional met tag that actually weighs with truth because if I did not know you were using AI, I would assume that's just professional sound advice.

[wxman57]

12z Euro back on board! Trended toward the ICON/ CMC a little bit

Wow, an all snow event for LA too.

EC ensembles are a good bit warmer. For example 25 for the lowest temp in Houston vs. 15 in operational. I still would not trust any model.

[Stratton23]

if the EPS is right, we dont get much of a warm up beyond this arctic blast, before the pattern reloads again with another trough over the central US

[sphelps8681]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

I am 60 today my birthday. I also work at school and everyone is praying for a long weekend. I took today for my bday. We do 4 day week so we all are off tomorrow and Monday. Tuesday would be icing on the cake. I am in Lumberton north of 1-10 from Beaumont.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z GEFS @ 120hrs

https://i.imgur.com/8zizKIA.png

as a DFW resident-and lover of snow.. DO NOT LIKE

[Tireman4]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

I am 60 today my birthday. I also work at school and everyone is praying for a long weekend. I took today for my bday. We do 4 day week so we all are off tomorrow and Monday. Tuesday would be icing on the cake. I am in Lumberton north of 1-10 from Beaumont.

Happy Birthday. My 60th is in 9 months.

[BigB0882]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

I am 60 today my birthday. I also work at school and everyone is praying for a long weekend. I took today for my bday. We do 4 day week so we all are off tomorrow and Monday. Tuesday would be icing on the cake. I am in Lumberton north of 1-10 from Beaumont.

Happy birthday! I grew up in Beaumont and now live in Baton Rouge. I’m also a teacher who is rooting for an extra day off. Lol

[Ntxw]

MJO looking to weaken once it reaches the MC and perhaps quickly pass and return to the better phases. Long way out though, so there are definitely favorable lower frequency forcing at play.

[kassi]

Beware the ICON - it was second-worst of the models with the last event across SE TX and LA. Only the Canadian was worse. ICON was WAY too cold with the last event. Canadian was another level of way too cold...

The unlike cold of the ICON along the Gulf coast leads to an unlikely forecast of winter precip down here. I didn't verify the ICON for D-FW or Denver last week, but it was pretty bad down here.

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

I am 60 today my birthday. I also work at school and everyone is praying for a long weekend. I took today for my bday. We do 4 day week so we all are off tomorrow and Monday. Tuesday would be icing on the cake. I am in Lumberton north of 1-10 from Beaumont.

Happy Birthday!

[sphelps8681]

But the ICON drops half an inch liquid equivalent of sleet and ice and would make MLK a 4 day weekend for me. Wishc**ting, but the new Canadian has a similar sensible weather result. Of course I trust the GFS more than the Canadian and German models, but it doesn't forecast what I want it to forecast. Been seeing people dismissing GFS runs as trash, sometimes with reasons, but usually because it doesn't show the result we want.

I'm 60, but I will still wi**cast about no school for a day or two in a school with very low test scores, drug use and frequent fights.

I am 60 today my birthday. I also work at school and everyone is praying for a long weekend. I took today for my bday. We do 4 day week so we all are off tomorrow and Monday. Tuesday would be icing on the cake. I am in Lumberton north of 1-10 from Beaumont.

Happy Birthday. My 60th is in 9 months.

Well Happy Birthday to come. I ain't liking this one at all. Did fine with all the others, but this one is getting me.