ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ed Mahmoud"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Sabanic"]I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.[/quote]



Yep, I believe it is definitely a Tx storm[/quote]


Might be better to declare Florida in the clear after the 0Z models are run with G-IV data. I still prefer the GFDL track, myself.


I am, of course, an amateur, and my opinions are not official forecasts.[/quote]



We have an excellent local met here and he hasn't been worried about this storm for the last couple of days. I think the all clear was sounded here on Wednesday...

[weatherguru18]

I'm expecting a pretty decent shift to the west with the official track at 5. Perhaps as far west as Lake Charles.

[BigB0882]

I love it, one batch of new models and it is declared a Texas storm! Has no one learned anything from this storm? The models have shifted a noticeable amount every day, sometimes 2 times a day! We are still 3-4 days out and the models will shift again.

[Sanibel]

Went from 984 to 980 in between center readings.


While the hurricane is a physical force that should hook right upon encountering objects like landmasses the steering layers of air are also technically massive physical masses as well that prevent the mass of the storm from "pinwheeling" into the mass of the steering feature.

I once saw someone argue in here how hurricanes had no mass and were just air. My question him then would be what then destroys your house if it has no mass?

[tolakram]

I love it, one batch of new models and it is declared a Texas storm! Has no one learned anything from this storm? The models have shifted a noticeable amount every day, sometimes 2 times a day! We are still 3-4 days out and the models will shift again.

Howdy,

this is not the models thread and it's getting too chatty in here in my opinion. Can we please reduce posts to observations about Gustav and leave everything else out. If your post contains no information or questions about Gustav that's a good reason not to post. It's really hard to catch up.

Thanks, I really appreciate it!

[N2Storms]

[quote="weatherguru18"]I'm expecting a pretty decent shift to the west with the official track at 5. Perhaps as far west as Lake Charles.[/quote]


Sounds reasonable....

[cycloneye]

Arghhh! Getting really tough for old geezers (definition to some: everyone over 30) like me to keep up with the reading... any chance we could knock off the JB discussions, off topic tangents, and general 'chatting' banter???

The chat sessions that occur in these main threads occur many times,but we are working on it by taking out without warning all of that.

[curtadams]

I notice in the latest visible the eye is clouding over but this is apparently due to new convection firing near the center. Is this a sign if additional strengthening?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

I think so. Gus is throwing VERY cold (<-80) convection from the eyewall during Dmin. The clouding is IMO an artifact since Gus is under mild westerly shear, so the top levels are a little east of the bottom levels. When the heaviest convection is to the west then the top layers obscure the eye to a top-down view like from the sat. The eye is still there, just a little tilted.

[Wthrman13]

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the hurricane is a physical force right, like a spinning wheel somewhat. And when it comes against land such as Cuba, wont the land slow down the first leading edge causing it to take a right? Just like a spinning top hitting a different surface? So with that said, why do none of the models or anything take that into consideration, did that not just happen with Fay? And with just a small deviation down over cuba will result in a big deviation in track, like say 200-300 miles east of where it is?

You're thinking of a hurricane as a solid object when they're actually patterns in air. Land does drag, but since hurricanes are made of air the drag in one part is not well transmitted to the hurricane as a whole (incidentally the models *do* account for it). Also, hurricanes don't have momentum - they really just drift in the wind. If something moves them, say, 50 miles they will just drift with the winds there. Generally that results in the whole track shifting about the same distance, although differential winds could make the change either larger or smaller down the line. It's not like a billiard ball where moving it also changes its momentum, resulting in ever-greater track shifts over time.

Exactly, and I would add to this by emphasizing that if the steering patterns suggest that a hurricane will "stop on a dime" and/or change direction and speed abruptly, it will. There is no "inertia" to overcome, at least not in the same sense as if the hurricane were an actual solid object. It's not intuitive, because we are so used to thinking that something as large as a hurricane would take a while to slow down, speed up, or change direction, but it just doesn't work that way for a vortex.

[Skyhawk]

I'm a little late...

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

The last point is way off. Latitude is 18 deg 59 min N, almost 19N.

[Stormcenter]

I love it, one batch of new models and it is declared a Texas storm! Has no one learned anything from this storm? The models have shifted a noticeable amount every day, sometimes 2 times a day! We are still 3-4 days out and the models will shift again.

The key is it's getting late in the ball game as the saying goes so the
closer they get to landfall the better the forecast.

[tolakram]

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 425 MILES
...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

I'm only plotting the advisory points.

[Just Joshing You]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 79.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

[rockyman]

Forecast valid 01/1800z 28.0n 90.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 90ne 75se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 120sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 02/1800z 30.5n 92.5w...inland
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 03/1800z 32.0n 94.0w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.

[rockyman]

[canegrl04]

Joe Bastardi on Fox. Claims could be a 5 before cuba

WOW, how shocking. Never would have expected JB to say that.

I also think this is looking a lot more like a SE TX/SW LA storm, just like Rita.

I heard it mentioned earlier today,either on Fox or CNN that Gustav could even become a cat 4.I wouldn't be surprised

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting that NHC did not change the track given the models, they must be waiting to see if it's a trend or not. Boarding up tomorrow if this doesn't change...

[dwg71]

Just an extension of prior forecast...

[tolakram]

5PM

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[Sabanic]

HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA
ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.