ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

You know this thing could really blast St George Island by running parallel to it. I would be really concerned up that way and over toward Taylor county with the insane water rises recorded there in the past. I think St Marks got a 10' or so water rise from Dennis in 05...and it made landfall in the western panhandle. The surge potential up there is crazy. Also the no name storm packed a deadly surge in the region in 1993.

[sponger]

The NHC is seeing something. The morning should be interesting..

[sponger]

You know this thing could really blast St George Island by running parallel to it. I would be really concerned up that way and over toward Taylor county with the insane water rises recorded there in the past. I think St Marks got a 10' or so water rise from Dennis in 05...and it made landfall in the western panhandle. The surge potential up there is crazy. Also the no name storm packed a deadly surge in the region in 1993.

Surfed TS Dean in 94 ish at Cape Sand Blas. Be a shame to erode the beautiful place. Turns out its a bit Sharky, but great surfing.

[LCfromFL]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H haha, why not just say stationary, how can you even measure something so large moving in any direction at 2 mph?

I spent the better part of today on CA freeways going a whopping 2 mph. Poor TD9...I feel for ya.

[chaser1]

Long time mostly-lurker... used to have an account, but forgot my email and login info...

I live south of Tallahassee in Wakulla County... should be in for some interesting weather these next few days...

Hey neighbor. Up the road from you in NE Tallahassee. Mother-in-law is in Wakulla near Spring Creek. Stay safe!

Paying attention too.

Well, if I choose to chase this storm I might just be in your neck of the woods especially if I make a Crawfordville pit stop and visit friends while I'm up there! You'all stay safe!

[pcolaman]

The core is looking very impressed tonight !! Probably a TS now. I wonder if they will post some kind of tropical statement if they fine TS strength.

[Noles2016]

You know this thing could really blast St George Island by running parallel to it. I would be really concerned up that way and over toward Taylor county with the insane water rises recorded there in the past. I think St Marks got a 10' or so water rise from Dennis in 05...and it made landfall in the western panhandle. The surge potential up there is crazy. Also the no name storm packed a deadly surge in the region in 1993.

Up to 12' along parts of the Wakulla coastline from Dennis, which hit over 150 miles away. We are very prone to storm surge.

[SouthFloridawx]

2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 30/1730Z,2330Z A. 31/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA3 0909A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE
C. 30/1600Z C. 31/0400Z
D. 24.7N 86.7W D. 25.5N 86.9W
E. 30/1715Z TO 30/2330Z E. 31/0500Z TO 31/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


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[chaser1]

You know this thing could really blast St George Island by running parallel to it. I would be really concerned up that way and over toward Taylor county with the insane water rises recorded there in the past. I think St Marks got a 10' or so water rise from Dennis in 05...and it made landfall in the western panhandle. The surge potential up there is crazy. Also the no name storm packed a deadly surge in the region in 1993.

Up to 12' along parts of the Wakulla coastline from Dennis, which hit over 150 miles away. We are very prone to storm surge.

You guys have any idea if the intersection of where 98 meets 319 (Medart I think) could see storm surge?

[tropicwatch]

Well the two blobs are now one blob. Best convection I have seen for this system so far.

[psyclone]

You know this thing could really blast St George Island by running parallel to it. I would be really concerned up that way and over toward Taylor county with the insane water rises recorded there in the past. I think St Marks got a 10' or so water rise from Dennis in 05...and it made landfall in the western panhandle. The surge potential up there is crazy. Also the no name storm packed a deadly surge in the region in 1993.

Up to 12' along parts of the Wakulla coastline from Dennis, which hit over 150 miles away. We are very prone to storm surge.

You guys have any idea if the intersection of where 98 meets 319 (Medart I think) could see storm surge?

Take a look at the NHC's new storm surge map product. it is great and should give you an answer.

[sponger]

Wow!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NASA's aircraft tracker is nice to use:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

Link directly to NOAA43:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... A43&zoom=6

It updates the path of the plane in real time. If there are no HDOBs, you can check it to see where it is. It doesn't often work for the Air Force though.

At the moment though, it doesn't have a position update on the plane other than when it was parked in Tampa after the earlier mission. I watched it taxiing in the display a few days ago.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H haha, why not just say stationary, how can you even measure something so large moving in any direction at 2 mph?

I spent the better part of today on CA freeways going a whopping 2 mph. Poor TD9...I feel for ya.

lol you learn to live with 2mph commutes sometimes you even get lucky and get to go 5mph

[Aric Dunn]

took a little break.. its looking 10x times better at least from sat presentation. recon needs to confirm the circ center though have a feeling its farther south a west than initialized.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey neighbor. Up the road from you in NE Tallahassee. Mother-in-law is in Wakulla near Spring Creek. Stay safe!

Paying attention too.

Well, if I choose to chase this storm I might just be in your neck of the woods especially if I make a Crawfordville pit stop and visit friends while I'm up there! You'all stay safe!

ill be there .. flying in but hoping because of my last minute flight to get there with enough time..

[FLLurker32]

When is the next recon flight?

[hohnywx]

When is the next recon flight?

Should be departing right about now

[mobilebay]

NASA's aircraft tracker is nice to use:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

Link directly to NOAA43:
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker ... A43&zoom=6

It updates the path of the plane in real time. If there are no HDOBs, you can check it to see where it is. It doesn't often work for the Air Force though.

At the moment though, it doesn't have a position update on the plane other than when it was parked in Tampa after the earlier mission. I watched it taxiing in the display a few days ago.

Nice link Chris... thanks

[pcolaman]

Hey Aric, what do you think about the westward shift in the models ? Do you think that the cone will shift further to the west ?