Florida Weather

[psyclone]

finally a solid rainy season pattern has established itself with big storms converging on the west coast in the evening. we have been pounded in the tampa bay area for the last 3 nights. tons of lightning and heavy rains... already over 3 inches here in august. sweet....

[summersquall]

Jensen Beach mini drought continues. Saw those impressive cells over the Tampa Bay area on radar, sweet indeed.

[thetruesms]

Softball game last night got cancelled on account of the geese swimming in center field

[dizzyfish]

finally a solid rainy season pattern has established itself with big storms converging on the west coast in the evening. we have been pounded in the tampa bay area for the last 3 nights. tons of lightning and heavy rains... already over 3 inches here in august. sweet....

So YOUR the one stealing my rain. LOL

Lots of boomers by us the last couple of nights but only a sprinkle of rain.

[psyclone]

hang in there dizzyfish and you'll eventually get bombed. it's already reloading for today and looks to be perhaps a bit earlier as the east coast seabreeze convection is already working into eastern polk county. with the westcoast seabreeze loitering near the coast, folks along and west of I75 from Naples north should have late afternoon fireworks once again as that classic collision takes place.

[JonathanBelles]

I've gotten between 2.5 and 2.75 inches of rain in the last two days.

[summersquall]

Still NOTHING. Have to go...googling "rain dances".

Robyn ---Jensen Beach, FL Home of the 2010 mini drought

[weatherSnoop]

Nothing more than a trace for me over the last 2 nights...living in that blue hole

[Bocadude85]

Still no rain here in Boca Raton either... this is one of the hotter summers I can remember in quite awhile.

[Aquawind]

No rain along the coast down here today with some storms popping inland. High clouds kept the temps down a tad as well. Good day for yardwork here.

[tronbunny]

While it's not a drought, it is an unusual summer pattern in central Fl.
The factors that are making this pattern could be part of the larger pattern making TC formation fizzle.
From the KMLB morning AFD-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1003 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

DISCOURAGED BY KXMR MORNING SOUNDING WITH 700/500
MB TEMPERATURES OF +10.8C/-3.9C RESPECTIVELY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KNOCK 10% OFF OF POPS LEAVING 40% OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT NEAR 50% IN LAKE COUNTY AND 30% ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT 40% ALONG ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
GFS/NAM SEEM TO STILL BE PICKING UP ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING HIGHER POPS AND IGNORING HOW UNSEASONABLY WARM IT IS ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN PLAYING A FACTOR ALL SUMMER FOR LOWER COVERAGE REALIZED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO MOVE INLAND AND COLLISION WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE
VERY WEAK WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAKING MOVEMENT CHAOTIC WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE STORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE M90S AREAWIDE
PRIOR TO THE SEABREEZE PASSAGE. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MIRROR THE
SFC DEWPOINTS...M/U70S.

The moisture and regular sea breeze development is here, but the lack of temp differential is not providing the energy needed to drive the thunderhead formations.

I'll go ahead and speculate that this is why there is recon for the area formerly known as TD5 is scheduled, despite the tremendous amount of surface data available due to its location along the N. Gulf coast.

Perhaps I will scrutinize the upper air/vs mid/lower level temps and pressures.

[feederband]

Man we have had alot of rain...Water everywhere...Radar looks like we will have some flooding issues tonite..

[jasons2k]

So much for "warming-up and drying out".

We're down here on Anna Maria Island and every day they keep saying 'rain today, but then the trough should move-out and drying will begin'

Well once again they raised the pops for today and the persistent blob offshore remains, with bands set to move-in. It just keeps persisting....and it's not like the typical summer thunderstorms either....it's overcast, dreary,and rainy all day long.

Nothing we can do about the weather....but I wish they could get the forecast right so we could plan better. I'm getting tired of telling the kids and my wife 'we'll finally be able to hit the beach tomorrow'...it's just getting old.

[thetruesms]

So much for "warming-up and drying out".

We're down here on Anna Maria Island and every day they keep saying 'rain today, but then the trough should move-out and drying will begin'

Well once again they raised the pops for today and the persistent blob offshore remains, with bands set to move-in. It just keeps persisting....and it's not like the typical summer thunderstorms either....it's overcast, dreary,and rainy all day long.

Nothing we can do about the weather....but I wish they could get the forecast right so we could plan better. I'm getting tired of telling the kids and my wife 'we'll finally be able to hit the beach tomorrow'...it's just getting old.

Where have you been getting your weather? Thinking has always been that this trough is going to be stuck through at least the first half of the week But it does suck when the weather gets in the way of a good vacation

But, uh, when you come up with a way to solve the partial differential equations for at least a million points on the planet (though the more, the better - 8 billion would be awesome!) integrated over several days to "get the forecast right", please let me know so I can get rich with you. Keep in mind that you will only get initial data for only a very small fraction of what you need, and that these equations cannot currently be solved analytically

[jasons2k]

So much for "warming-up and drying out".

We're down here on Anna Maria Island and every day they keep saying 'rain today, but then the trough should move-out and drying will begin'

Well once again they raised the pops for today and the persistent blob offshore remains, with bands set to move-in. It just keeps persisting....and it's not like the typical summer thunderstorms either....it's overcast, dreary,and rainy all day long.

Nothing we can do about the weather....but I wish they could get the forecast right so we could plan better. I'm getting tired of telling the kids and my wife 'we'll finally be able to hit the beach tomorrow'...it's just getting old.

Where have you been getting your weather? Thinking has always been that this trough is going to be stuck through at least the first half of the week But it does suck when the weather gets in the way of a good vacation

But, uh, when you come up with a way to solve the partial differential equations for at least a million points on the planet (though the more, the better - 8 billion would be awesome!) integrated over several days to "get the forecast right", please let me know so I can get rich with you. Keep in mind that you will only get initial data for only a very small fraction of what you need, and that these equations cannot currently be solved analytically

I've been reading the NWS Ruskin AFD's every day. Last Thursday/Friday, when we were planning our days, they said Sunday would have the highest POPs (50%) and then it would gradually clear out with high pressure building-in from the south. By Tuesday, pops were back down to 30-40% with more typical scattered PM thunderstorms. Wed - Thu had only 20%. I told my wife here in Florida, 20-30% didn't mean much....yes, it might rain but it wouldn't last all day long or anything like that...

It keeps getting pushed out, it seems. Checked the weather on Sunday...they were saying 50% Monday but by Tuesday the drying would commence. Woke-up yesterday and it was upped to 70% (basically a washout) for Monday and still 50% today. Woke-up today and it was upped to 60% for today and 50% for tomorrow. I just refreshed the NWS page and now they have upped it to 60% for tomorrow. It was supposed to be 20 or 30% tomorrow, not 60%! I'll bet when I wake-up tomorrow, it'll say 70%.

So it is changing and taking longer for this to move-out then what they were saying a few days ago. If you had asked me a few days ago if by Wednesday we would have decent beach weather I would have 'absolutely'. Fast forward to now and it looks like tomorrow may still be rainy and dreary. So, yes, it is very frustrating...here are some snippets:

This is from Saturday:
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)..

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED (POPS 40 PERCENT) DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SOUTHWEST TO WEST STEERING FLOW FAVORING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING
BECOMING SCATTERED EACH AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INLAND.

This isn't typical "scattered diurnal convection" which is no big deal. This is more like a flood.

On Sunday:

BY TUESDAY...THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FL WILL
QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR THE SFC RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK NORTH AND REACH CENTRAL FL BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY FOR WHICH 40 POPS ARE IN PLACE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY).
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Sounds like they were not expecting it to be quite this wet coming into the Tue-Wed time frame.

[thetruesms]

Hmm, it does sound like they backed off over the weekend. Frankly, I don't bother reading Ruskin's AFDs over the weekend when I'm not at work. I guess someone on the weekend led you astray But late last week, they were keeping above normal POPs through at least Tuesday because of the trough.

Florida is also difficult because you almost get a guaranteed 20-30% baseline every day. So anything above that from the long-term forecaster means something else is up . . . but it's rare that you'll get anything above a 50 from the long term because of the uncertainties involved. This is amplified by the GFS/ECM split on how the trough would progress. So it seems like their thinking was that the trough would lift Tuesday night, leaving the possibility for even longer if the Euro was right, then they brought it up to Monday night and went with the GFS, and now it's getting pushed back again to a similar philosophy as late last week - though I personally don't know if you should hope for too much tomorrow, either

Curses to Ruskin for adopting a completely different stance over the weekend while I don't pay attention to them, then switching back on Monday, making me look stupid thinking nothing's changed

[dizzyfish]

Enough already!

We've had almost 6" of rain since Friday night and it's pouring again. I know I've complained a lot about not getting our share of rain - guess I'll shut up now.

A couple hour break would be nice - and since I'm wishing, could I please have that time when I'm home and can take the dogs for a walk.

[Aquawind]

This is 3 days in a row of total cloudy as in zero direct sunlight..very rare. It's been nice and cool with the added rains and breeze.. Hope it clears out for stargazing over the weekend.

[summersquall]

Have to say the cloudiness has been a nice break with cooler temps. Actually turned off the ac yesterday. Still could use the rain here though. Back to doing a little rain dance as my last one was highly successful.

[jasons2k]

It keeps getting pushed out, it seems. Checked the weather on Sunday...they were saying 50% Monday but by Tuesday the drying would commence. Woke-up yesterday and it was upped to 70% (basically a washout) for Monday and still 50% today. Woke-up today and it was upped to 60% for today and 50% for tomorrow. I just refreshed the NWS page and now they have upped it to 60% for tomorrow. It was supposed to be 20 or 30% tomorrow, not 60%! I'll bet when I wake-up tomorrow, it'll say 70%.

Sure enough:

Today: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I think we're about to drive-down to the Keys and spend the next 3 days with my dad. This is just ridiculous!!!!