ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ROCK]

Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

now that is an interesting find....

[george_r_1961]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would also agree that the chances of this getting to Cat 3 are pretty slim. Cat 1 is most likely with Cat 2 not being out of the realm. My rationale is that its moving a little quicker than was originally forecast plus its probably going to run over a cold eddy(as per NHC discussion) before landfall.

In the mean time the forward motion will likely slow some as the ridge to the north weakens. Dolly is over warm water now with somewhat favorable upper winds so some slow steady strengthening is possible tonight and tuesday. The intensity at landfall will be determined by how quickly (or slowly) Dollys winds react to the more favorable conditions tonight and more importantly how she reacts to the cooler waters she will encounter before landfall. Winds in a larger stronger cyclone may take longer to wind down when the cyclone encounters unfavorable conditions. Right now im guessing 90 mph at landfall

[TheRingo]

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?

[HouTXmetro]

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?

yes, but it's not coming here

[mattpetre]

Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

now that is an interesting find....

Any guesses on timeframes about this ridge movement? I have been watching the steering currents most of the day and I was supposing that this would cause a more NW turn by around 2 or 3am tonight. Am I in the right ballpark?

[mattpetre]

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?

yes, but it's not coming here

Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.

[ROCK]

Looks like the weakness in the ridging is getting closer to happening. Pro opinions?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

now that is an interesting find....

Any guesses on timeframes about this ridge movement? I have been watching the steering currents most of the day and I was supposing that this would cause a more NW turn by around 2 or 3am tonight. Am I in the right ballpark?

if she slows tonight then that could be the case....but I aint staying up to 2 am to find out...

[TheRingo]

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?

yes, but it's not coming here

Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.

let me rephrase that. South texas.

[ROCK]

Isn't southeast tx prone to floods?

yes, but it's not coming here

Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.

strange!! and AL is not?

[CrazyC83]

The key now is to watch the winds catch up with the pressure. It fell at least 6 mb (probably more like 8-9 mb) this evening but the winds have not changed.

[HouTXmetro]

let me rephrase that. South texas.

LOL.... South Texas includes Brownsville, South Padre and areas along the Rio Grand Valley.

Southeast TX is Houston, Galveston, Beaumont area.

[mattpetre]

yes, but it's not coming here

Must admit that when I moved to Houston, I didn't really think of it as SE Texas. It's a hard state to put labels on with such a strange shape.

strange!! and AL is not?

Not quite as bad, but it is strange in its own ways.

Back to Dolly. Looks like a bit more NW shift already beginning.

[ROCK]

GFS rolling in.... Brownsville...does not look like the trof weakens the high much...

[TheRingo]

Has Brownsville ever experienced a Cat 1?

If it hits King County we'll never hear of it again.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/brownsville.htm

[HURAKAN]

Time to go to sleep.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like this makes landfall in 24 hr. I don't see this slowing down.

There are two cardinal rules to TC forecasting that I overlooked: 1) models breaking down ridges too fast; 2) models killing ULL's too quickly. These two conditions will likely preclude a major hurricane.

[Andrew92]

The NHC never said Dolly will become a major hurricane. In fact, it's forecast to only become a C1, with maybe a chance at a C2.

As ragged as Dolly may seem, she's getting her act together.

-Andrew92

[wxmann_91]

The NHC never said Dolly will become a major hurricane. In fact, it's forecast to only become a C1, with maybe a chance at a C2.

As ragged as Dolly may seem, she's getting her act together.

-Andrew92

Yes, the NHC did not say it would. They were going conservative (which is working out attm). But many believed, including me and numerous pros, that it would have optimal conditions beginning tonight and especially tomorrow-Wednesday which had the potential to allow Dolly to become a Cat 3+.

[HouTXmetro]

That TUTT is still in the extreme SW BOC just working

[cycloneye]

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