ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

man after recon this 4 hours ago... look at the center. dropped all the way to 24 n and 88 west.. probably near there or maybe even slightly west of there.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric, what do you think about the westward shift in the models ? Do you think that the cone will shift further to the west ?

if for some reason the trough is not deep enough the track is up in the air. I dont think given the current thinking the models will shift much more west unless the trough itself does not dig far enough south to fully pick it up. just have to wait and see how long this stalled/ continued drifting "westward" last.

[SeGaBob]

Thanks, might stay up a bit if they're leaving now.

[tropicwatch]

ASCAT from about an hour and a half ago. You nailed it Aric.

[pcolaman]

Looks like it backing up to the west to get a good run at becoming a hurricane. Kinda like Opal did out of the bay Campeche , or Ivan running around Cuba. Just my thoughts..

[Aric Dunn]

Recon quite likely to fine a TS now.

[Alyono]

TS? The ASCAT shows this is a 25 kt TD at most

[Aric Dunn]

the hwrf does not have it move passed 87 west for over 24 hours.. thats new..

[HurriGuy]

Recon quite likely to fine a TS now.

why have they not left? Or have they?

[tropicwatch]

Haven't seen where they have taken off yet.

[SeGaBob]

TS? The ASCAT shows this is a 25 kt TD at most

I know you're a pro met but I have to disagree with you here...ASCAT doesn't pick up everything that recon can.

[Aric Dunn]

TS? The ASCAT shows this is a 25 kt TD at most

I know you're a pro met but I have to disagree with you here...ASCAT doesn't pick up everything that recon can.

especially within heavy convection. given the low level structure and re organization .. pressure is probably 1000mb or upper 990's /

[Alyono]

mid level shear is still affecting this. It's likely not yet aligned. That's why the winds have DECREASED today

[mobilebay]

TS? The ASCAT shows this is a 25 kt TD at most

I know you're a pro met but I have to disagree with you here...ASCAT doesn't pick up everything that recon can.

I will be absolutely shocked if recon doesn't find a tropical storm

[tropicwatch]

Still have not seen where they have taken off and this is one mission I hope they don't cancel. TD 9 is looking good.

[cdavis6287]

OK, just to be clear. Can someone who has allot more knowledge in storms than me answer. I'm confused on the uncertain track. I know allot of people on here are saying the track should be west cause models show that. But then I'm hearing some saying it will trend more east again. As far as what's going on with this system and I know its a crazy one, why are people saying the NHC thinks it may go further east again? What are the factors on the projected path? Thanks!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Colin earlier this year no doubt was less impressive than this currently looks....confused by no upgrade but the NHC are the experts and they get to make the calls.

[Johnny77]

Yes, for an official TD it's looking very healthy tonight. Likely an official TS by tomorrow morning. This thing just keeps tracking further west than the models have predicted. But, with a stronger storm now it should start to move poleward. Amazing that 24-48 hours ago people were really worried about a Tampa strike.

I have relatives just north of Hilton Head Island along the South Carolina coast, which is currently in the cone. What type of winds could they get there based on latest guidance? Would you be moving your boat out of the water?

Thanks!

[Aric Dunn]

mid level shear is still affecting this. It's likely not yet aligned. That's why the winds have DECREASED today

'yeah not fully aligned but close enough for sustained convection. the center very likely has migrated farther wsw than even the ascat or microwave.. giving it very good shot tonight.

[mobilebay]

Im beginning to wonder about this mission. Shouldn't they've departed by now?