ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Frank2]

LOL - some are seeing slightly east some slightly slower some less ridging others more ridging - it's like an eye chart : )

[bqknight]

It looks like it is going to be VERY close to the Florida coast again through 60. Ridge looks a tad stronger.

[tolakram]

[windnrain]

54 h... VERY close to Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well the GFS has run a little slower this time and therefore appears a little further south on it's approach to the Florida East Coast. This is razor close. Angle of approach can mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and hurricane force.

[windnrain]

Near landfall at 66h.

[HurricaneFrances04]

It looks like it is going to be VERY close to the Florida coast again through 60. Ridge looks a tad stronger.

Ridge is definitely trending stronger still. Will definitely be a US landfall on this run again.

[tolakram]

Slower but I believe track is still the same.

[stormlover2013]

florida is going to get it pretty rough in my opinion going to be close!!

[xironman]

LOL - some are seeing slightly east some slightly slower some less ridging others more ridging - it's like an eye chart : )

At 60hrs the 588 line goes through Alabama, with the 0z it was in western NC. Not an eye chart, pretty clear

[tolakram]

944mb

[jhpigott]

Well the GFS has run a little slower this time and therefore appears a little further south on it's approach to the Florida East Coast. This is razor close. Angle of approach can mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and hurricane force.

GFS holds serve as far as SFL is concerned. No noticeable shift, just a little slower. Riding the white line down here.

[jlauderdal]

LOL - some are seeing slightly east some slightly slower some less ridging others more ridging - it's like an eye chart : )

those seeing east dont know how to read a model map...anyway, lets see what the king does in 2 hours..gfs wants to bring it onshore

[tolakram]

4 run trend. I believe this is the box step?

[chaser1]

Still pretty consistent with recent runs. Fortunately no indication yet of any increased westward trend, but just the idea that a powerful hurricane will be that close, is enough for everyone to remain very vigilant (and already be prepared for the worst if a sudden jog west occurred)

[windnrain]

Pretty much a landfall at 72h, or close.

[JaxGator]

Well the GFS has run a little slower this time and therefore appears a little further south on it's approach to the Florida East Coast. This is razor close. Angle of approach can mean the difference between tropical storm force winds and hurricane force.

And it strengthens the hurricane up the coast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Still heading NW/NNW at 78 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

Still pretty consistent with recent runs. Fortunately no indication yet of any increased westward trend, but just the idea that a powerful hurricane will be that close, is enough for everyone to remain very vigilant (and already be prepared for the worst if a sudden jog west occurred)

While it isn't technically a west trend it is indicative of stronger ridging and a slower storm which would put more of the East Coast of FL under the gun. I think the stronger ridging shown is the big thing to take from this run.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Still pretty consistent with recent runs. Fortunately no indication yet of any increased westward trend, but just the idea that a powerful hurricane will be that close, is enough for everyone to remain very vigilant (and already be prepared for the worst if a sudden jog west occurred)

While it isn't technically a west trend it is indicative of stronger ridging and a slower storm which would put more of the East Coast of FL under the gun. I think the stronger ridging shown is the big thing to take from this run.

I'm wondering if a slower movement during the next 24-36 hours, would ultimately put this storm closer to the East Coast.