ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dave]

We will have a high pressure ridge over southern great lakes & ohio valley in here tomorrrow but it pulls NE in 48 hrs.

24 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=2

48 Hrs:

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/nav.php?current=4

How does this affect the storm track?

Wouldn't that make more of a opening to let a tropical system move more north than northwest?

[RL3AO]

Jeff Master's new blog

It's time to leave New Orleans

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Jeff Master's new blog

It's time to leave New Orleans

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I agree. Based on latest Ir red CDO has formed. I expect this thing to explode tonight.

[dwg71]

Masters is not telling us what he knows

I want to see 18Z gfs to get a better grip on the trough that has dug down through the Yuc Pen.

[rockyman]

Masters is not telling us what he knows

I want to see 18Z gfs to get a better grip on the trough that has dug down through the Yuc Pen.

GFS running now

[tolakram]

Interesting view, not sure what the lower cloud levels are.



Dry air getting in?

[jasons2k]

BTW, someone was asking earlier what was the criteria for "rapid deepening":

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[rtd2]

Interesting view, not sure what the lower cloud levels are.



Dry air getting in?

I thought so at first but Ithink its just part of the deepening

[KWT]

It was so obvious this was going to explode and that is whats happening, nice deep convection near the eye feature, all the hallmarks of a system that could well be undergoing RI...expect this tio be a major before Cuba.

[rockyman]

I think that area that looks like dry air is actually the shadow of the towering clouds to the west (since the sun is setting in the west)

[tolakram]

I think that area that looks like dry air is actually the shadow of the towering clouds to the west (since the sun is setting in the west)

IR reveals it's an area that lacks any or deep convection. I thought it was a shadow too. We'll have to watch and see what happens.

[HURAKAN]

[dwg71]

Appears headed right at little caymans, is it supposed to or split with the big island??

[KWT]

There is some weakness in the SE quadrant but the inner core once again looks tight so I don't expect it to be a huge deal.

Cuba may well stall it in its tracks but with the loop current still in the way, it'll probably gain any strength lost over Cuba pretty rapidly.

[PTrackerLA]

Dr. Master's is FORECASTING Gustav to follow HWRF track. Pretty bold prediction since the track is well, out there. Stranger things have happened, I guess.

"The general trend of most of the models has been to build a stronger ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, and I forecast that Gustav will come very close to the Louisiana coast on Monday as a Category 3 hurricane, stall, then move westwards towards Texas. This is the solution of the latest HWRF model."

[ConvergenceZone]

Dr. Master's is FORECASTING Gustav to follow HWRF track. Pretty bold prediction since the track is well, out there. Stranger things have happened, I guess.

"The general trend of most of the models has been to build a stronger ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, and I forecast that Gustav will come very close to the Louisiana coast on Monday as a Category 3 hurricane, stall, then move westwards towards Texas. This is the solution of the latest HWRF model."

he also mentioned though that it should weaken if it stalls due to the cold water that it will churn up, could
weaken to a cat 1 if it stalls...

[KWT]

Steering currents look too strong for a stall IMO, a slow down is possible but the only model that is showing any type of action close to a stall now is the HWRF and thats not exactly been a stunning model thus far.

[deltadog03]

I am still not sure how the ridge is going to come into play...Still, GUS is moving pretty good right now. I would say close to 13 mph.....18z GFS looked like it initialized a bit too far SE...(not bad though)Big thing I see is speed...Might be about 6 hours or so behind. Not too bad for a global..

[rockyman]

18z GFS maintains a central LA landfall (in 84 hours)

[KWT]

Well my forecast was 120mph into St.Mary, don't want the track to change that much if that occurs but the models have shifted westwards.