ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[flamingosun]

(gulp) Looks like Cat Island and Eleuthera are gonna really get it

[CW0262]

don't get me wrong i am under no impression the hurricane is landfalling florida lol

however when you take into account 4 things ..i am sorta shocked there is no tropcal storm watch/warning up yet for e coast florida from say miami to daytona

when you take into acct.


1. EWRC going on .... = usually expansion of winds

2. the snippet from NHC earlier disco from stewart i believe that mentioned the ridge possibly holding on a bit longer than models forecast...which would = a bit further west movement of irene

3. the potential intensity of irene as she makes her closest pass to FL

4. the tendency for NHC to be "overly cautious" in forecasts so people are better "safe then sorry" ready for rough conditions


why not issue a tropical storm watch this evening at 8pm ...how could this hurt?

I agree it' the first time in 21 years kind of odd they left it up to the local mets, I think it's all about dollars and cents.

[Emmett_Brown]

don't get me wrong i am under no impression the hurricane is landfalling florida lol

however when you take into account 4 things ..i am sorta shocked there is no tropcal storm watch/warning up yet for e coast florida from say miami to daytona

when you take into acct.


1. EWRC going on .... = usually expansion of winds

2. the snippet from NHC earlier disco from stewart i believe that mentioned the ridge possibly holding on a bit longer than models forecast...which would = a bit further west movement of irene

3. the potential intensity of irene as she makes her closest pass to FL

4. the tendency for NHC to be "overly cautious" in forecasts so people are better "safe then sorry" ready for rough conditions


why not issue a tropical storm watch this evening at 8pm ...how could this hurt?

I agree it' the first time in 21 years kind of odd they left it up to the local mets, I think it's all about dollars and cents.

Yes, I thought this was odd too. Weird to see full blow hurricane warnings for all the islands, even those just 70 or so miles off shore SFL, and see not even a TS watch, for the same reasons mentioned above.

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 250021
XXAA 75007 99234 70750 08035 99953 27001 14016 00926 ///// /////
92269 26001 16514 85014 22202 16015 70689 15410 15511 88999 77999
31313 09608 82350
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 2345N07499W 2354 MBL WND 15514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
512 953696 WL150 15016 084 REL 2344N07498W 235042 SPG 2345N07499W
235422 =
XXBB 75008 99234 70750 08035 00953 27001 11850 22202 22696 15208
21212 00953 14016 11923 16514 22885 16512 33874 16016 44850 16015
55713 14510 66696 16011
31313 09608 82350
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 08
62626 EYE SPL 2345N07499W 2354 MBL WND 15514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
512 953696 WL150 15016 084 REL 2344N07498W 235042 SPG 2345N07499W
235422 =
;

[drezee]

For my wobble junkies...Vortex message is out
Movement since last recon fix....drum roll.....


Distance between

N Latitude 22 33 0.00, W Longitude 74 9 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 23 27 0.00, W Longitude 75 2 0.00 (Point 2)



134.665 kilometers; 83.677 miles
Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 318.08°

Speed 12.9mph

[artist]

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 00:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 08

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 23.4N 75.0W
Location: 187 miles (301 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (28.14 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.9°C (80.4°F) 140° (from the SE) 16 knots (18 mph)
1000mb -426m (-1398 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 269m (883 ft) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F) 165° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
850mb 1,014m (3,327 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
700mb 2,689m (8,822 ft) 15.4°C (59.7°F) 14.4°C (57.9°F) 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:50Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 23.45N 74.99W
Splash Time: 23:54Z

Release Location: 23.44N 74.98W View map)
Release Time: 23:50:42Z

Splash Location: 23.45N 74.99W (
Splash Time: 23:54:22Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 953mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
953mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.9°C (80.4°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F)
696mb 15.2°C (59.4°F) 14.4°C (57.9°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
953mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 16 knots (18 mph)
923mb 165° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
885mb 165° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
874mb 160° (from the SSE) 16 knots (18 mph)
850mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
713mb 145° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
696mb 160° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)

[Dave]

Took a couple minutes longer...had to reboot.

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 250021 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/23:50:00Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2684 m
D. 71 kt
E. 133 deg 52 nm
F. 212 deg 87 kt
G. 133 deg 47 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C / 3047 m
J. 16 C / 3055 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. OPEN ENE-SSW
M. CO14-64
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SE QUAD 23:33:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 325 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CronkPSU]

So definitely NW movement now...starting to head towards NNW...these NHC guys are good!

[Hurricaneman]

looks like it has 2 eyewalls according to recon one is 14 miles wide and the other is 64 miles wide

[cpdaman]

So definitely NW movement now...starting to head towards NNW...these NHC guys are good!

not so sure bout that NHC disco says tommorrow NNW movement arrives

that's a 2hour motion posted....so the next one could easily be 310....we shall see

[drezee]

Pressure looks to be 952 actually...drop was 953 with 16 knot winds so subtract one

[mf_dolphin]

Be careful when quoting other online blogs and Facebook - As an example, the quote a couple of pages ago from Dennis Philips a local Tampa Met was made on Monday and taken entirely out of context since it's Wednesday. If you're going to do it do the original poster the courtesy of put a Date/Time on his original post.

[Dave]

550
URNT15 KNHC 250027
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 21 20110825
001800 2431N 07610W 6966 03093 9993 +081 //// 062058 058 046 007 01
001830 2432N 07612W 6967 03092 9989 +087 +080 062058 060 045 007 00
001900 2433N 07613W 6968 03093 9989 +089 +076 061054 056 045 005 00
001930 2435N 07615W 6967 03092 9989 +090 +073 062052 053 043 002 00
002000 2436N 07616W 6970 03093 9987 +093 +073 062052 053 041 004 00
002030 2437N 07618W 6967 03098 9982 +097 +076 060054 055 041 002 00
002100 2439N 07619W 6967 03101 9981 +099 +077 062054 054 041 000 00
002130 2440N 07620W 6967 03101 9989 +095 +079 063053 054 039 002 00
002200 2441N 07622W 6968 03101 9990 +097 +066 061051 052 037 001 00
002230 2443N 07623W 6966 03107 9989 +100 +062 060051 051 036 001 00
002300 2444N 07625W 6969 03113 9994 +100 +063 060051 051 034 002 03
002330 2444N 07627W 6970 03112 9995 +104 +061 057049 050 /// /// 03
002400 2442N 07627W 6965 03109 9992 +101 +059 057048 049 /// /// 03
002430 2440N 07627W 6967 03106 9989 +100 +070 060048 049 040 001 00
002500 2438N 07627W 6969 03102 9987 +100 +072 061048 049 040 002 00
002530 2436N 07627W 6966 03101 9987 +098 +071 058049 049 043 001 00
002600 2434N 07628W 6967 03103 9989 +095 +071 057048 048 044 001 00
002630 2432N 07628W 6969 03099 9988 +095 +064 055048 049 045 001 00
002700 2430N 07628W 6967 03100 9984 +098 +068 052045 047 043 000 00
002730 2428N 07628W 6967 03095 9980 +100 +067 049046 046 043 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

I can. Just the obs or images too?

Just the obs, unless Dave wants a break too, he is posting the graphics. Thanks artist

Got a PM artist is coming back now.

Was waiting on the VDM report to come in on that last graphic...ran a little later than normal to grab it.

[cpdaman]

last image says "im baaacK"

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... g&itype=ir

[artist]

shows NOAA9 1509A is out there too? Getting dropsondes. Post?

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250037
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 22 20110825
002800 2426N 07628W 6969 03094 9975 +103 +069 049046 046 043 001 00
002830 2424N 07628W 6967 03095 9976 +100 +074 048046 047 043 001 00
002900 2422N 07629W 6967 03092 9982 +095 +070 048049 049 044 002 00
002930 2420N 07629W 6967 03092 9981 +095 +067 049053 055 044 003 00
003000 2418N 07629W 6969 03092 9981 +092 +068 047054 055 044 004 00
003030 2416N 07629W 6966 03087 9983 +086 +070 046056 057 053 002 03
003100 2413N 07629W 6967 03081 9982 +085 +078 045057 057 078 007 03
003130 2411N 07629W 6967 03082 9978 +087 +081 042056 057 044 005 03
003200 2409N 07630W 6967 03082 9974 +089 //// 041052 053 047 002 01
003230 2407N 07630W 6967 03078 9969 +090 //// 039054 054 043 004 01
003300 2405N 07630W 6967 03078 9961 +095 +087 036054 055 042 003 00
003330 2403N 07630W 6967 03075 9957 +098 +075 031052 052 042 002 00
003400 2401N 07630W 6969 03074 9959 +095 +075 030052 053 041 002 00
003430 2358N 07631W 6967 03074 9956 +096 +080 029053 053 041 003 00
003500 2356N 07631W 6967 03075 9953 +097 +081 028053 054 042 002 00
003530 2354N 07631W 6966 03074 9954 +096 +083 027053 054 044 002 00
003600 2352N 07631W 6967 03069 9955 +093 +088 027053 054 045 002 00
003630 2350N 07631W 6967 03071 9953 +094 +087 024057 057 046 002 00
003700 2347N 07632W 6969 03068 9949 +099 +083 022057 057 045 002 00
003730 2345N 07632W 6967 03072 9950 +096 +083 020056 056 045 001 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

Ive seen a few people make common mistakes when interpreting Irene's listed heading.. Below is a diagram of navagational heading and their relative location on a true north compass.. Hope this helps with further tracking of Irene



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