ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

TVCN has been just about dead on

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Wowzers - 12z NAM has Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for another 36 hours

So it misses the weakness then. I read on another forum if doesnt start lifting this evening, it wont lift till thursday-friday

[USTropics]

Wowzers - 12z NAM has Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for another 36 hours

So it misses the weakness then. I read on another forum if doesnt start lifting this evening, it wont lift till thursday-friday

Add the ICON to the list of a prolonged stall, doesn't begin to lift north of the Bahamas for 24 more hours:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Sheesh. Poor bahamas

[toad strangler]

The ICON is not getting invited to my model party next time.

[Buck]

The ICON is not getting invited to my model party next time.

It's tough being the new kid at school... and a foreigner at that.

[tronbunny]

The ICON is not getting invited to my model party next time.

And this is why
https://imgur.com/a/ZNSm0IB

[ConvergenceZone]

This is acting exactly like it should prior to the turn. I don't know how many storms I've seen in the past due the same thing. You can see the trough reaching down on the upper level maps. The only way this would have had a chance of reaching Florida is if the stall had not occurred as predicted. Thank God it has!! It should start moving North by the end of the day if not sooner, depending upon how long it stalls of course.......Definitely happy news! But I do feel horrible for the islands

[MrJames]

GFS is running. Further east at 30hrs heading NNW

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is slightly east but the same general idea of a bend back to the florida coast and then SC/NC. so not a good trend.

[supercane4867]

GFS seems to be consistent on a SC/NC landfall

[chaser1]

Wowzers - 12z NAM has Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for another 36 hours

So it misses the weakness then. I read on another forum if doesnt start lifting this evening, it wont lift till thursday-friday

Albiet at a snails pace, it appears as if Dorian has begun a drift to the NW already. That could have been temporary but i'd lean toward some inching along motion toward the N.W. to more or less continue. A resumed westward drift would kind of surprise me but I could imagine the storm to simply just sit for a few hours just as well. I don't think the NAM having the storm fully stall for another 12 hours without a NW motion will occur though.

[NDG]

Nice to see the 12z GFS shift a good way east but it shows Dorian very slowly moving NNW this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning before turning more NW, it will have to do that to verify.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nice to see the 12z GFS shift a good way east but it shows Dorian very slowly moving NNW this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning before turning more NW, it will have to do that to verify.

This is a good point. The 12Z GFS shows a solid NW motion between 24 and 42 hours, as the first trough pulls out, and heights build to the east of the storm. If it fails to move enough today, and starts that NW motion from a lower latitude, could still get close the CFL coast. Lots of time left for things to happen.

[chaser1]

This is acting exactly like it should prior to the turn. I don't know how many storms I've seen in the past due the same thing. You can see the trough reaching down on the upper level maps. The only way this would have had a chance of reaching Florida is if the stall had not occurred as predicted. Thank God it has!! It should start moving North by the end of the day if not sooner, depending upon how long it stalls of course.......Definitely happy news! But I do feel horrible for the islands

Makes sense to me as well. I'm not sure that the storm's approach will actually get as close to the NHC track as presently forecast. At this juncture, I'd guess that a more NNW motion might soon occur and remain fairly consistent over the next 48 hours. Very very slowly at first, then with a slow increase in forward speed over time. With the weakness beginning to materialize at this time, I'm not sure what atmospheric dynamic would still be impacting much of a westward influence at this point.

[chaser1]

Nice to see the 12z GFS shift a good way east but it shows Dorian very slowly moving NNW this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning before turning more NW, it will have to do that to verify.

This is a good point. The 12Z GFS shows a solid NW motion between 24 and 42 hours, as the first trough pulls out, and heights build to the east of the storm. If it fails to move enough today, and starts that NW motion from a lower latitude, could still get close the CFL coast. Lots of time left for things to happen.

Sounds like good news for the Jupiter inlet area north to about Vero. I'm not sure whether the ridge to the north is really going to build in all that much following this first trough lifting out. Seems to me that the weakness will have been established by and large. Perhaps a nudge slightly more back to the N.W.?? Then again, by this time the storm might well be far enough east of the Fla peninsula that a minimal or slight ridge enhanced push to the left might be too little - too late to bring the Dorian less then 40 miles from Titusville. Guess we'll have to wait and see whether a crawl to the N.W. or NNW has already commenced, or whether Dorian will be sitting and feasting on Bahamian Conch fritters for a while longer. Hope it's the former for the sake of those poor people getting raked for endless hours.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nice to see the 12z GFS shift a good way east but it shows Dorian very slowly moving NNW this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning before turning more NW, it will have to do that to verify.

This is a good point. The 12Z GFS shows a solid NW motion between 24 and 42 hours, as the first trough pulls out, and heights build to the east of the storm. If it fails to move enough today, and starts that NW motion from a lower latitude, could still get close the CFL coast. Lots of time left for things to happen.

Sounds like good news for the Jupiter inlet area north to about Vero. I'm not sure whether the ridge to the north is really going to build in all that much following this first trough lifting out. Seems to me that the weakness will have been established by and large. Perhaps a nudge slightly more back to the N.W.?? Then again, by this time the storm might well be far enough east of the Fla peninsula that a minimal or slight ridge enhanced push to the left might be too little - too late to bring the Dorian less then 40 miles from Titusville. Guess we'll have to wait and see whether a crawl to the N.W. or NNW has already commenced, or whether Dorian will be sitting and feasting on Bahamian Conch fritters for a while longer. Hope it's the former for the sake of those poor people getting raked for endless hours.

Yep, agreed. The ridge I am referring to, is actually to the E of the storm. This is the one that turns it N, but does so with a tilt to the NW for a bit. So it is more the shape of the ridge building from the E than ridging to the N of Dorian. Then, a new trough swoops down and turns it N, then NE. So the NW motion will be temporary, and is the only thing that might shove it back W for a bit. But I agree, looking a little better for FL EC.

[hohnywx]

12Z GFS comes close to New England after it passes the Carolinas

[LarryWx]

It looks like to me that the main 12Z model consensus has shifted eastward, which is good news. I think that's because of his not making it far west at Grand Bahama Island as he was supposed to by now. Hopefully this trend will continue. I'm breathing even a bit easier for FL/GA for a major hit (though not the all clear yet and they'll still get at least TS force winds) and I'm starting to feel a bit better even up to CHS. Keep the positive vibes!

[TheDreamTraveler]

12Z GFS comes close to New England after it passes the Carolinas

https://i.imgur.com/8EB34qN.png

Yeah that's been happening for the past couple of days with the GFS runs. Gets really close to impacting New England/Maine and a lot of runs really impact Nova Scotia as well. Euro takes it a bit farther east than GFS though.