CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gtsmith]

From looking at several sat. loops I do not see the ULL in the Bahamas moving much. Kinda just meandering, no west or south movement.
What happens if it does not move at all?
Look here: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

I see a slow, slow west movement...

[Steve]

Getting a little nervous MCG?
----------------------------------
Frank "the man" P: stress levels among the coast will be extremely high this weekend...

Not mine. I'm a native Louisianian with the most laissez faire attitude in the world. I'm going to go to Grand Isle tonight to go drinking and play some cards while it's the ex's weekend with the kids. When I come home tomorrow night, I'll reassess the situation and see what things are looking like then. There's nothing I can do anyway since my house remains in ruins (and fortunately, the contractor isn't slated to start on it for another week anyway). There is some memorabilia in the attic which will still be there regardless of anything that would potentially happen since our house isn't really vulnerable to storm surges, only to flooding (and being above sea level, there would have to be 25' of water in the city in order for my attic to be threatened.

Where I live now is also 7' above sea level though 53 miles SW of New Orleans. We've got 17' of levee protection and I'm about 50 miles north of the Gulf. It hasn't flooded down this way since Hurricane Juan in 1985 (a rain event with piled up water backing up the bayous).

So rather than freak out, I'm just going to have me some good old southern fun and then see where we stand Saturday Night/Sunday.

Steve

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Also, storm surge could be a problem
for areas east of landfall...a big problem.
Watch the Models Carefully.

[weatherguru18]

Keep in mind that wobbles right now are crucial! Lets take bowling for example: (follow me here)

For those of us who bowl, you know that the lane is 60' long. Each board on the floor is an 1" wide. Well by moving left or right one board on the floor equals to a 6" difference in ball placement at the pens.

The same holds true for Dean. With each wobble to the north, you are looking at 10's of miles up the coast...being that we are so far away.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

It looks like the trend north in the NHC track continues. If the models stay the same, then expect the NHC to continue moving a hair further north each day. If the the track is still aimed anywhere between Corpus and Morgan City by Sunday, then we in Houston will need to pay extra close attention.

BTW, at 5-6 days out the Hurricane Rita models looked like this...



Not that bad, right? They were slightly left, but overall had a good general idea. Let's hope the current 5-6 day models do not end up being as correct as they were back then with Rita.

[A1A]

NHC nudged it over again ever so slightly to the right but still not the NW or NNW turn some of the models are indicating past the Yucatan

I thought the NHC basically followed the GFDL?

[Aric Dunn]

well good new is ... is that we can get every 15 minute images of dean!!
the conus sat from the nasa site

[vaffie]

Keep in mind that wobbles right now are crucial! Lets take bowling for example: (follow me here)

For those of us who bowl, you know that the lane is 60' long. Each board on the floor is an 1" wide. Well by moving left or right one board on the floor equals to a 6" difference in ball placement at the pens.

The same holds true for Dean. With each wobble to the north, you are looking at 10's of miles up the coast...being that we are so far away.

Definitely a big wobble. The stronger it gets the more it's going to push against that high and wobble to the North. Wobbles are also going to take place at moments of intensification, when the winds on the north side are temporarily much higher than those to the south.

[Javlin]

Keep in mind that wobbles right now are crucial! Lets take bowling for example: (follow me here)

For those of us who bowl, you know that the lane is 60' long. Each board on the floor is an 1" wide. Well by moving left or right one board on the floor equals to a 6" difference in ball placement at the pens.

The same holds true for Dean. With each wobble to the north, you are looking at 10's of miles up the coast...being that we are so far away.

Yea but Dean may just be feeling a little weakness and then bend back W and in the long run still 275*-280* on movement.Lets see if continues for a while like I said it just an ob.Kevin

[Chacor]

Hmm, looking at that NHC 5-day (lower confidence) forecast point... a category 3 hurricane about 250 miles southeast of Brownsville. Not nice.

[hial2]

Odds of Dry Air in the GOM?

Las Vegas has 'em 3-1 against......

[HURAKAN]

New:

[6SpeedTA95]

Anyone else notice the latest IR/WV scans appear to show perhaps some dry air encounters?

[tailgater]

Waking to the news that some of the models have shifted to the right. I am not at all surprised. Wednesday evening I voiced my concern over the ULL/trough over the Bahamas and its potential interaction with Dean. I'm afraid those concerns might come to pass. Just looking at the setup Wednesday night I knew Dean would not plow into the Yucatan and move into the BOC. There was no way that ULL was going to say far enough ahead of Dean not to affect its path. IMO, I would not be surprised if the models shift even further right. Upper TX coast towards central LA seem currently to be at highest risk. It is imperative that Dean traverse the GOM west of the loop current......MGC

There may be another determining factor in the track of Dean, most of the models are showing some sort of development east of the Bahamas, if this happen it could do one of two things IMHO, split the ridge in to sections one in the western Atlantic and one over eastern GOM/FLA which would send Dean into Mexico probably, or it could erode the nose of ridge. If it just erodes the ridge then the track would get very tricky. Thoughts?

[vaffie]

NHC nudged it over again ever so slightly to the right but still not the NW or NNW turn some of the models are indicating past the Yucatan

I thought the NHC basically followed the GFDL?

It likes the GFDL a lot as well as the Aviation ensemble which both take it into SE Texas, but it's giving some credit to the NOGAPS, CMC and EURO that are much further south and the GFS which is a little south, so it's probably going to go for the Tex/Mex border for now, but I'm pretty sure that the storm is going to stay on a track more akin to GFDL/UKMET/Ensemble/WRF, so they will probably change their track to them when they find that it's predicting better.

[cycloneye]

6 hours

GFS starting.

[HardCard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

It looks like the trend north in the NHC track continues. If the models stay the same, then expect the NHC to continue moving a hair further north each day. If the the track is still aimed anywhere between Corpus and Morgan City by Sunday, then we in Houston will need to pay extra close attention.

BTW, at 5-6 days out the Hurricane Rita models looked like this...



Not that bad, right? They were slightly left, but overall had a good general idea. Let's hope the current 5-6 day models do not end up being as correct as they were back then with Rita.

They weren't.

[Javlin]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

It looks like the trend north in the NHC track continues. If the models stay the same, then expect the NHC to continue moving a hair further north each day. If the the track is still aimed anywhere between Corpus and Morgan City by Sunday, then we in Houston will need to pay extra close attention.

BTW, at 5-6 days out the Hurricane Rita models looked like this...



Not that bad, right? They were slightly left, but overall had a good general idea. Let's hope the current 5-6 day models do not end up being as correct as they were back then with Rita.[/quote

thought it was a screwed up Dean graph

[Kludge]

96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND

Hmmm... It's almost an exageration to call this "inland". I guess by-definition, the eye will pass over the tip of the Yuc and be inland momentarily...but the latest NHC track should only be a glancing blow. I'm a bit surprised that they're thinking that this Yuc encounter will knock D from 130 kts down to 100kts. But let's certainly hope so!

[cycloneye]

6 hours 500